I 摘要 随着能源危机的日益加深，寻找和开发可再生能源逐渐成为国家重要科研目标 和任务。由于太阳能光伏发电具有安全、稳定、清洁等特点，目前已成为世界各国 最看重的可再生能源之一。对于太阳能光伏发电项目本身，除了安全、稳定、清洁 之外，还具有自然条件严、资金需求大、投资周期长、占用耕地多、政策变化快、 并入电网难等的特点，在光伏项目的投资、建设、运营期间，必然也会面临各式各 样的风险。因此，光伏发电项目的投资管理最关键、最重要的环节就是进行项目的 可行性研究。项目前期的可行性研究做得越充分，投资决策失误的可能性也就越低。 报告介绍了建设项目可行性研究的基本理论，如可行性研究的概念，可行性研 究的内容以及可行性研究的工作程序，建设项目经济评价方法和风险分析；对阿坝 州四川阿坝州光伏电站投资项目环境进行了分析，包括光伏行业发展现状和环境， 项目的自然条件和环境；给出了项目实施的具体方案，并找出了项目存在的问题， 针对问题提出具体的和解决办法和措施，如“一多三少”问题和解决办法，并网难问 题和解决办法；在此基础上，重点对四川阿坝州光伏电站投资项目的经济和风险进 行了分析，包括项目的经济效益分析，如项目投资、资金筹措与收益估算，财务分 析，不确定性分析，如盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析，以及风险分析，如电价政策风 险，经济周期衰退风险，行业竞争加剧的风险，技术风险以及配额和成本风险等。 分析结果表明，该项目具有较高的经济效益，存在的风险是可以控制的。因此，项 目必要且可行。 关键词，光伏发电，经济分析，风险分析重庆大学硕士学位报告 英文摘要 II ABSTRACT With the deepening energy crisis, finding and development of renewable energy is becoming an important national research objectives and tasks. Since solar photovoltaic power generation is safe, stable, clean, etc., it has become one of the world's most renewable energy valued. For solar photovoltaic project itself, in addition to security, stability and clean, but also has serious natural conditions, large capital requirements and long investment cycle, farmland and more policy changes quickly, the grid characteristics and difficulties in the PV project investment, construction, operation period, will inevitably face a variety of risks. Therefore, the photovoltaic power generation project investment management most critical, the most important aspect is the feasibility study of the project. Project pre-feasibility study done more fully, the possibility of mistakes in investment decisions is also lower. The paper introduces the basic theory of construction project feasibility study, such as the concept of feasibility studies, the content of the feasibility study and the feasibility study of the work program, the construction project economic evaluation methods and risk analysis; Aba Hongyuan distributed PV power plant Environmental investment projects were analyzed, including the photovoltaic industry development status and the environment, natural conditions and environmental projects; the concrete implementation of the project plan and identify project problems and propose specific solutions and measures to address the problem such as a little more than three problems and solutions, and network hard problem and solutions; on this basis, focusing on the economic and risk Aba Hongyuan distributed photovoltaic power plant investment projects were analyzed, including the project's economic benefit analysis, such as investment, financing and earnings estimates, financial analysis, uncertainty analysis, such as break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis, and risk analysis, such as tariff policy risk, the risk of recession exacerbated by the economic cycle risks, industry competition, technical risks as well as quotas and cost risks. The results show that the project has a higher economic efficiency, there is a risk that can be controlled. Therefore, the project is necessary and feasible. Keywords: distributed photo-voltaic generation, Economic Analysis, Risk Analysis重庆大学硕士学位报告 目 录 III 目 录 中文摘要..........................................................................................................................................I 英文摘要.........................................................................................................................................II 1 绪 论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究内容和基本框架................................................................................................................ 2 2 建设项目可行性研究的基本理论...............................................................................4 2.1 可行性研究概述........................................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 可行性研究的概念............................................................................................................. 4 2.1.2 可行性研究的内容............................................................................................................. 4 2.1.3 可行性研究的工作程序..................................................................................................... 5 2.2 建设项目经济评价方法和风险分析......................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 建设项目的经济评价方法................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 风险分析 ............................................................................................................................ 7 3 四川阿坝州光伏电站项目市场分析以及建设和实施方案 ..........................8 3.1 项目的市场分析........................................................................................................................ 8 3.1.1 项目概况 ............................................................................................................................ 8 3.1.2 光伏行业现状和发展环境................................................................................................. 9 3.1.3 四川阿坝州光伏电站项目建设的优势 ........................................................................... 15 3.2 项目的建设方案...................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 投资平台的组建............................................................................................................... 18 3.2.2 项目的人员配置............................................................................................................... 18 3.2.3 环境保护措施 .................................................................................................................. 19 3.3 项目的实施方案...................................................................................................................... 20 3.3.1 项目的工程概算............................................................................................................... 20 3.3.3 项目实施中存在问题和解决办法................................................................................... 23 4 四川阿坝州光伏电站投资项目的经济和风险分析........................................26 4.1 项目投资、资金筹措与收益估算........................................................................................... 26 4.1.1 项目的投资估算............................................................................................................... 26重庆大学硕士学位报告 目 录 IV 4.1.2 项目的资金筹措............................................................................................................... 27 4.1.3 项目的收益估算............................................................................................................... 27 4.2 项目的财务分析...................................................................................................................... 29 4.2.1 项目的盈利能力............................................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 项目的偿债能力............................................................................................................... 30 4.3 项目的国民经济评价.............................................................................................................. 30 4.4 项目的不确定性分析.............................................................................................................. 31 4.4.1 盈亏平衡分析 .................................................................................................................. 31 4.4.2 敏感性分析 ...................................................................................................................... 32 4.5 项目的风险分析...................................................................................................................... 33 4.5.1 电价政策风险 .................................................................................................................. 33 4.5.2 经济周期衰退风险........................................................................................................... 33 4.5.3 行业竞争加剧的风险....................................................................................................... 34 4.5.4 技术风险 .......................................................................................................................... 35 4.5.5 配额和成本风险............................................................................................................... 35 4.5.6 并网难存在的风险........................................................................................................... 36 5 结 论....................................................................................................................................... 37 致谢.......................................................................................................................................38