摘要 可行性研究是提高企业项目投资决策科学性的必不可少的工作,是促进企业 合理利用资源!提升竞争能力的重要保证,对企业本身及国民经济的健康持续发 展有着重要的意义 南京高精齿轮集团有限公司(以下简称高齿集团)是我国齿轮行业大型骨干 企业,同时也是我国机械工业500强大型企业之一作为国家级高新技术企业, 高齿集团凭着先进的技术和装备!良好的管理以及稳健的财务管理等优势,长期 处于同行领先地位据统计,高齿集团在高速!重载齿轮箱市场占有绝对优势 本文以高齿集团与德国采埃孚(中国)有限公司合作投资船用齿轮箱项目为研究 对象,按照项目管理的规范,采用工程经济分析的理论方法,针对项目的投资进 行可行性分析,为企业的投资决策提供参考 本文对南京高精齿轮集团有限公司船用齿轮箱项目进行了可行性研究主要 采用了定性分析与定量评估相结合!静态分析与动态分析相结合的方法,对项目 的市场可行性!技术可行性!企业内部条件!生产能力(规模)!技术方案!营 销策略和价格制定!投资估算和资金筹措!成本费用估算!销售收入及税金估算 等方面进行了比较全面和深入的分析!研究还编制了项目的基本财务报表,对 投资回收期!净现值!财务内部收益率等相关财务指标进行了分析,并给出了财 务评价最后,本文采用了盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目的不确定性和 风险性进行了分析,以提高项目经济评价的可靠性和决策的科学性研究结果表 明,南京高精齿轮集团船用齿轮箱项目能在预定的时间内收回成本并带来可观的 经济效益和社会效益,因此该项目是积极可行的 关键词:可行性分析;财务预测;效益分析;风险分析硕士学位报告ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Feasibilitystudy15theneeessaryworktoincreasetheeffeetivenessandvalidityof decision一markingforProjectinvestment,andit15verymeaningfulforthesustainable develoPmentofanenterpriseandnationaleeonomy,beeauseit15abletoinsurethat theresourceofanenterprise15utilizedrationally. NalljingHigh一SPeed&AeeurateGearGrouPCo.,Ltd(NGC)15averyimPortant enterpriseofthestategearindustr叭and15alsooneofthe500largestenterprisesand thehighandnewteehnologyenterprise.Theadvantagesintechniealleveland equiPment,thefavorablemanagementandsoundfinanceete,allthesemakeNGC keePaheadofthecraftbrothers,andNGCholdallthetrumPsinhighsPeedand heavyloadgearboxmarket.ThePaPeraimsatthemarinegearboxProjeetinvestedby NGCandZFmarineGrouP,thelargestindePendentgearboxmanufaeturerworldwide, andthePaPerfoeusesonfeasibilitystudyofmarinegeathoxProjeetbythemethodof engineeringeeonomiesanalysisandtheeriterionsofProjeetmanagement,whieh suPPliesreferencesofinvestmentdeeisiontotheenterprise. InthisPaPer,thefeasibilityofNGCmarinegearboxProject15studiedbymeansofthe incorporatemethodofqualitativeanalysisandquantitativeevaluation,statieanalysis anddynamieanalysis.ThePaPerstudymainlythefeasibilityofthemarketand technology,theeonditionsintemaltheenterprise,Productionseale,teehnieal Programs,marketingstrategyandPrieemanagement,investmentestimationandfund eolleetion,eostestimation,salesvolumeandtax,and50on.Inaddition,thebasic financialrePortsofNGCrnarinegearboxaremadebasedontheanalysisofsome finaneialindexsuchasPayoffPeriodofinvestment(staticanddynamic),NetPresent value,internalrateofreturn,ete.Finally,thesensitivityanalysisandtheBreak一Even PointanalysisareusedintheuncertaintyandtheriskanalysisofNGCmarine gearboxProjeet.TheresultsshowthattheProjeet15notonlyabletomakegood eeonomiebenefitforNGC,butalsocanbringthefavorablesoeialbenefits.Therefore, theProject15feasible. Keywords:feasibilitystudy:financialforeeast:benefitanalysis:riskanalysis硕士学位报告目录 目 摘要..........................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT...........................................................................................................11 1绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景.....................................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义.....................................................................................................................2 1.3研究内容..........................................................,....................................................3 1.4技术路线及研究方法.................................................................................................4 1.5报告结构..........................................................,....................................................6 2可行性研究的相关理论与方法.........................................................................7 2.1可行性研究的发展及概述..............................,....................................................7 2.2可行性研究的相关理论与方法.................................................................................8 2.3工业建设项目可行性分析的主要内容..........,..................................................10 3项目所处的内外环境分析...............................................................................14 3.1项目的市场分析........................................................................,........................14 3.1.1船用齿轮箱产品的市场概述..................,.........................,...............14 3.1.2市场发展趋势及需求量预测.,.......,............................,...............15 3.1.3产品的市场生命周期预测................,.....................................................16 3.1.4企业可能获得的初始市场分析..............................................,.........,..,17 3.1.5项目的市场资源分析....................................................................................18 3.2技术及工艺可行性分析.....................,.............................................,...........19 3.2.1南京高齿船用齿轮箱产品的技术状况..................................,...............19 3.2.2船用齿轮箱项目实施的工艺技术可行性分析............................................20 3.2.3船用齿轮箱项目实施的J_:装设备可行性分析..........................................,.22 3.2.4高齿的技术人员及技术能力状况分析........................................................23 3.3高齿集团内部环境及条件分析...............................................................................24 3.3.1企业的营销能力分析.......,......................................................................24 3.3.2企业获得的认可........................................,.............................................25 4船用齿轮箱产品的生产方案设计...................................................................27 4.1生产技术目标!原则及方案...............................................,.............................27 4.1.1生产技术目标及原则.........................,....................................................27 4.1.2生产技术方案..........................................................,..............................27 4.2生产规模方案的设计....,.................,.......................................,.........:.,29硕士学位报告目录 4.2.1生产能力核定.........................................................................................#..29 4.2.2交期的保证方案...........................,........................................31 4.2.3价格管理方案...................,...........,...............................#.....,.#32 4.3人力资源配置方案....,..........................................,...............#.....33 5项目财务分析及评价..........................................#36 5.1项目投资估算.......................................................................................,......,36 5.2项目资金来源及规划........................................................#...,37 5.3项目成本估算....,.................................................................................#...........#38 5.3.1生产成本费用估算..............................................................#...38 5.3.2期间费用估算.......................................................................,..#....#39 5.3.3其他费用估算...,........................................................................#.#....#40 5.4销售收入与税费估算..,..................................................#......#....40 5.5项目的综合财务分析............................................................#42 5.5.1基本的财务报表........................................................,...............#..#42 5.5.2静态财务指标...,................,..,........................#.#...#,#一42 5.5.3动态财务指标................................................................#.........#........一43 5.5.4项目的财务效益评估..............,......................#46 6项目的风险与不确定性分析.................,...................................................47 6.1项目的财务盈亏平衡分析.................,.......47 6.2项目的敏感性分析..........................................................................................,..48 7.总结与展望......................................................................................................52