伴随着我国经济的突飞猛进，城镇化脚步日益加快，越来越多的人口向城市 聚集，人们对住房的需求越来越高，因此房地产开发项目规模随之增大，楼盘样 式越来越多，投入科技成分也越来越高。在高投入、高利润的项目背后，技术、 组织、资金等方面的风险发生率越来越高、越来越不可预测。当下，在对房地产 行业进行风险管理的工作中，需要找准主要问题，其中，最需要引起关注的就是 风险管理缺乏完整性，只是单纯的从某一流程出发，没有从项目生命周期的角度 管理风险。因此，把风险管理贯穿于房地产开发项目生命周期进行研究变得愈发 重要。 本文以永新家园住宅小区项目为研究对象，首先阐述工程项目风险的概念及 分类、工程项目风险管理的界定及流程、工程项目风险管理的基本方法。然后对 永新家园住宅小区项目概况进行介绍，分析该项目风险识别的依据及过程。基于 项目生命周期理论探讨该项目启动阶段、计划及施工准备阶段、实施阶段及收尾 阶段的风险识别。在项目风险识别基础上，提出永新家园项目风险评估的原则及 方法，并采用定性及定量相结合的方法对该项目风险进行评估。最后基于上述研 究结论，按照项目不同的阶段提出相应的风险应对措施，以提高该项目风险管理 水平，促进该项目的顺利实施。本文的研究结论不仅在一定程度上丰富了房地产 项目风险管理理论，同时也对永新家园住宅小区项目的风险管理提供理论依据， 此外，本文的研究结论还对同类项目的风险管理提供借鉴和指导。 关键词：项目风险识别 项目风险评估 项目风险应对II Abstract With the rapid development of China's economy, the pace of urbanization is accelerating, more and more people are gathering in cities, and people's demand for housing is getting higher and higher. Therefore, the scale of real estate development projectsincreasesaccordingly,withmoreandmorerealestatestylesandmoreandmore investment in science and technology. Behind the high-input and high-profit projects, the risk incidence rate of technology, organization, capital and other aspects is increasingly high and unpredictable. At present, in the risk management of the real estate industry, it is necessary to identify the main problems. Among them, the most important concern is the lack of integrity of risk management, which simply starts from a certain process and fails to manage risks from the perspective of project life cycle. Therefore, it becomes more and more important to research risk management throughout the life cycle of real estate development projects. This paper takes the project of YongXin JiaYuan residential area as the research object, and firstly expounds the concept and classification of engineering project risk, the definition and process of engineering project risk management, and the basic method of engineering project risk management. Then the general situation of YongXin JiaYuan residential area project is introduced and the basis and process of risk identification are analyzed. Based on the project life cycle theory, this paper discusses the risk identification of the project in the start-up stage, planning and construction preparation stage, implementation stage and closure stage. On the basis of project risk identification, the principles and methods of risk assessment of YongXin JiaYuan project were proposed, and the project risk was assessed by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Finally, based on the above research conclusions, corresponding risk response measures are proposed according to different stages of the project, so as to improve the risk management level of the project and promote the smooth implementation of the project. The research conclusions of this paper not only enrich the risk management theory of real estate projects to a certain extent, but also provide theoretical basis for the risk management of YongXin JiaYuan residential area project. In addition, the research conclusions of this paper also provide reference and guidance for the risk management of similar projects. Keywords: Risk identification Risk assessment Risk responseIII 目 录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................... I Abstract........................................................................................................................II 目录 .............................................................................................................................III 第 1 章绪论 ...................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义...............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义.................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外相关研究现状.........................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状.........................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状........................................................................................3 1.3 研究内容和方法.................................................................................................4 1.3.1 研究内容................................................................................................4 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................5 1.4 论文创新之处.....................................................................................................5 第 2 章相关理论概述 ...................................................................................................6 2.1 工程项目风险的概念及分类...........................................................................6 2.1.1 工程项目风险的概念............................................................................6 2.1.2 工程项目风险的分类............................................................................6 2.2 工程项目风险管理的界定及流程...................................................................6 2.2.1 工程项目风险管理的界定....................................................................6 2.2.2 工程项目风险管理的基本流程.............................................................7 2.3 工程项目风险管理的基本方法.........................................................................8 2.3.1 风险识别的基本方法............................................................................8 2.3.2 风险评估的基本方法............................................................................9 2.3.3 风险应对的基本方法..........................................................................10 第 3 章永新家园住宅小区项目风险识别.................................................................12 3.1 永新家园住宅小区项目概况...........................................................................12 3.2 永新家园住宅小区项目风险识别的依据及过程...........................................13 3.2.1 永新家园住宅小区项目风险识别的依据........................................13IV 3.2.2 永新家园住宅小区项目风险识别的过程...........................................14 3.3 永新家园住宅小区项目启动阶段的风险识别...............................................15 3.4 永新家园住宅小区项目计划及施工准备阶段的风险识别...........................17 3.5 永新家园住宅小区项目实施阶段的风险识别...............................................18 3.6 永新家园住宅小区项目收尾阶段的风险识别...............................................19 第 4 章永新家园住宅小区项目风险评估.................................................................21 4.1 永新家园住宅小区项目风险评估的原则及方法...........................................21 4.1.1 永新家园住宅小区项目风险评估的原则.........................................21 4.1.2 永新家园住宅小区项目风险评估的方法.........................................21 4.2 永新家园住宅小区项目风险评估的过程及结果...........................................21 4.2.1 永新家园住宅小区项目风险的定性评估..........................................21 4.2.2 永新家园住宅小区项目风险的定量评估..........................................26 第 5 章永新家园住宅小区项目风险应对的措施.....................................................36 5.1 项目启动阶段的风险应对措施.......................................................................36 5.2 项目计划及施工准备阶段的风险应对措施...................................................36 5.3 项目实施阶段的风险应对措施.......................................................................37 5.4 项目收尾阶段的风险应对措施.......................................................................38 第 6 章研究结论与展望 .............................................................................................40 6.1 研究结论...........................................................................................................40 6.2 研究展望...........................................................................................................40