由于近年来房地产市场的迅速发展，市场竞争的加剧，伴随而来的是地王频出，房 价不断攀升，民众感到买房成为压在身上的巨大负担。房地产与人民的生活息息相关， 直接关系到人民群众的切身利益。2011 年以来，政府加大了对房地产市场的宏观调控力 度，通过限购、限贷、限价等一系列手段打压房地产投机性行为，并通过加大保障房建 设，保障住房刚性需求的供应量。当下房地产商进行房地产项目投资必须对政策进行充 分研究，对市场进行深入调研，对财务进行精细的测算，在政策可行，市场有需要，经 济有利润的前提下，才能进行投资。 本文是贵州黔盛房地产开发有限责任公司在威宁的 JL 项目的商业计划书，本计划 书通过系统的全面的分析，为项目的投资决策及项目的实施提供一定的参考。 本文首先总结了国内外关于房地产项目可行性研究的相关文献，并介绍了本文的研 究方法和研究内容，接着描述了项目开发商贵州黔盛房地产开发有限责任公司的发展状 况、组织结构和人员组成； 为了更好地把握市场需求，本文从政治、经济与人口、社 会与文化对宏观环境进行了分析，并从市场容量、土地供应量、项目供应量及项目类型 对威宁的房地产市场进行了深入研究。为了更好的对本项目的市场竞争力分析，选取了 5 个同类型的项目进行了研究，并对项目进行了 SWOT 分析。在投资环境分析的基础上， 接着对项目进行了市场定位，并确定了相应的营销策略。接着从项目的投资总成本、项 目的资金来源和筹资方案、项目的销售收入估算、项目的利润估算及项目的盈利能力分 析对项目进行了财务分析，并在此基础上进行了盈亏平衡点和敏感性分析，并对项目可 能遇到的风险进行了分析，提出了风险的应对措施。 通过本商业计划书的研究，JL 项目的销售净利润率为 20.75%，FNPV 为 12070.61 万，动态投资回收期大约为 5 年，内部收益率 IRR 为 19.95%，项目的盈利能力超出行 业平均水平。根据敏感性分析销售价格对项目净利润的影响程度最大，具有一定的风险， 但处于可控范围，本研究认为本项目值得投资。 关键词，房地产；商业计划书；市场定位；财务分析II ABSTRACT Due to the rapid development of the real estate market in recent years, market competition intensifying, which is associated with land, house prices rising, people feel to buy a house become a huge burden upon the shoulder of the.Real estate is closely related to people's life, directly related to the vital interests of the people.Since 2011, the government has stepped up to the real estate market macroeconomic regulation and control efforts, through a series of means, such as, the limit of credit, for purchasing price crackdown on real estate speculative behavior, and by increasing affordable housing construction, guarantee the supply of housing demand.The present real estate developers of real estate project investment must be sufficient for policy research, in-depth research on the market, to sophisticated financial calculation, feasible in policy, market needs, under the premise of economic profit, to invest. This article is about Gui Zhou sheng real estate development co., LTD in weining JL project business plan in guizhou.This plan provide some reference for the implementation and investment decision of the project through the comprehensive analysis of the system. Firstly this article summarizes the domestic and foreign related literature about real estate project feasibility study, and introduces the research methods and research content of this article, and then describes the development status, organizational structure and personnel composition of the project developer in guizhou, guizhou sheng real estate development co., LTD. And then the paper introduces the overall project through the project characteristic, the overall project planning, project investment attract click project and the economic and technical indicators.In order to better grasp the market demand, this paper analyses the macro environmentfrom politics, economy and population, social and cultural. and the the real estate market in Wei ning is studied from the market capacity, land supply, supply and project type .In order to better market competitiveness analysis of this project, the paper select the five projects of the same type, and the SWOT analysis of the project is carried on .On the basis of analyzing the investment environment, then the market positioning of the projectand the corresponding marketing strategy are determined.Then financial analysis is researched from the total cost, project financing and financing plan, project sales estimates, project profit estimates and project profitability analysis. On the basis of the profit and loss balance and sensitivity analysis, and analyses the project may encounter risk, puts forward the risk countermeasures. Through the study of this business plan, sales net profit margin of JL project is 20.75%,III NPV is 120.7061 million, the dynamic payback period of investment is about 5 years, internal rate of return IRR of 19.95%,the profitability of JL project exceed the industry average. According to the sensitivity analysis,sales price has the greatest influence to the net profit of project.The project has a certain risk, but in a controllable scope, this study believe that the project is worth the investment. Key words，Real Estate Project;Business plan；Market positioning； Financial analysisIV 目 录 摘要.............................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 国外研究文献综述................................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 国内研究文献综述................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究方法与研究内容 ...................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 研究方法................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 研究内容.................................................................................................................... 3 第二章 开发商情况介绍及项目概述....................................................................................5 2.1 开发商情况介绍 .............................................................................................................. 5 2.1.1 项目开发公司简介................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 项目开发公司组织结构............................................................................................ 5 2.2 项目概述.......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 项目特色和总体规划............................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 项目的投资吸引点................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 项目开发相关经济技术指标................................................................................... 8 2.3 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 9 第三章 JL 房地产项目投资环境分析.................................................................................10 3.1 JL 房地产项目的外部环境分析 ................................................................................. 10 3.1.1 宏观环境分析..................................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 市场环境分析......................................................................................................... 11 3.1.3 竞争对手分析..................................................................................................... 14 3.2 SWOT 分析 ............................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 优势.......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.2 劣势.......................................................................................................................... 18V 3.2.3 机会.......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 机会.......................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 19 第四章 项目的市场定位及营销策略..................................................................................21 4.1 目标市场分析................................................................................................................ 21 4.1.1 潜在客户分析......................................................................................................... 21 4.1.2 市场调研问卷分析................................................................................................. 21 4.2 项目市场定位 ................................................................................................................ 31 4.2.1 项目的总体定位..................................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 住宅项目的定位..................................................................................................... 32 4.2.3 商业项目的定位...................................................................................................... 32 4.2.4 项目配套体系的定位.............................................................................................. 32 4.3 项目整体开发战略........................................................................................................ 33 4.4 项目实施进度和营销计划 ............................................................................................ 34 4.4.1 项目实施进度.......................................................................................................... 34 4.4.2 项目总体销售计划.................................................................................................. 34 4.4.3 项目营销推广总体思路.......................................................................................... 34 4.4.4 项目开发各阶段营销组合策略.............................................................................. 35 4. 5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 36 第五章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................37 5.1 项目开发总投资成本估算......................................................................................... 37 5.2 项目资金来源与资金筹措方案................................................................................. 38 5.3 项目销售收入预测..................................................................................................... 39 5.4 项目利润估算............................................................................................................. 40 5.5 项目盈利能力分析...................................................................................................... 42 5.5.1 现金流量表.......................................................................................................... 42 5.5.2 财务净现值......................................................................................................... 42 5.5.3 财务内部收益率................................................................................................. 43 5.6 本章小结..................................................................................................................... 43 第六章 项目风险分析..........................................................................................................45VI 6.1 盈亏平衡点与敏感性分析........................................................................................... 45 6.1.1 盈亏平衡点分析..................................................................................................... 45 6.1.2 敏感性分析............................................................................................................. 45 6.2 风险分析与对策............................................................................................................... 46 6.2.1 政策风险与对策..................................................................................................... 46 6.2.2 市场风险与对策..................................................................................................... 47 6.2.3 管理风险与对策..................................................................................................... 47 6.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................... 48 结论..........................................................................................................................................49