“三农”问题作为我国经济社会变革所必须面对的根本性问题， 一直以来受到政府及大众的高度关注，而农房抵押贷款则是破解“三 农”融资困局、金融支持“三农”发展的重要方式之一。2015 年第 十二届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十八次会议决定授权 59 个县 （市、区）为农民住房财产权（含宅基地使用权）抵押试点，温州市 瑞安、乐清作为其中的两个试点地区，在工作开展以来取得了初步成 效。但农房抵押贷款风险程度如何，风险是否在可控范围内等问题， 是农房抵押贷款能否长期和在更大范围推行的决定性因素。 本文在详细研究国内外学者研究成果的基础上，结合实地调研及 专家座谈，首先建立农房抵押贷款整体风险评价体系，以瑞安市从事 农房抵押贷款业务的银行信贷员作为调查对象，发放和回收有效问卷 50 份，通过模糊综合评价法得出整体风险评分为 3.01 分，风险在可 控范围内，且银行参与意愿较高；其次基于农户视角构建多分类有序 Logistic 回归模型，以瑞安市农户作为调查对象，发放 208 份问卷， 回收有效问卷 200 份，通过实证分析得到影响农房抵押贷款风险的特 征因素有农户的性别、年龄、婚姻、受教育程度、个人年收入、家庭浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 II 年收入、意向贷款期限、现有借款总额、住房拥有数以及是否在城里 购买住房等。在此基础上，提出了包含环境保障、风险预防、风险控 制、风险转移、农房处置和农户保障等内容在内的农房抵押贷款风险 管理机制，最后得出研究结论为政府完善相关政策以及银行的风险防 控提供依据。 关键词，农房抵押贷款，风险管理，模糊综合评价，有序 logistic 回归 论文类型，应用基础研究浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 III STUDY ON RISK EVALUATION AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF FARMHOUSE MORTGAGE LOAN --TAKING RUIAN AS THE RESEARCH OBJECT ABSTRACT As a fundamental problem that China's economic reform must face, agriculture, rural areas and farmers has been highly concerned by the government and the public.The farmhouse mortgage loan is one of the important ways to solve the financing difficulties and financial support for the development of the problem.In 2015, the 18th session of the standing committee of the 12th National People's Congress decided to authorize 59 counties (cities and districts) to be the pilot mortgage of farmers' housing property rights (including the right to use homesteads)， As two pilot areas, Ruian and Yueqing have achieved initial results since the work started. But how risky is the mortgageWhether the risk is controllable or not is the decisive factor for the long-term and wider implementation of farmhouse mortgage loan. Studying the risk degree and influencing factors can provide reference for the government's policy formulation and the bank's risk prevention and control. Based on a detailed study of the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, combined with field survey and expert panel discussion, this paper first established the overall risk evaluation system for the mortgage loan of farmhouses, and took the loan officer of banks in Ruian who carried out the mortgage loan business of farmhouses as the object of investigation, and issued and recovered 50 valid questionnaires.The overall risk score was 3.01 by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the risk was within the controllable range, and the banks were willing to浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 IV participate.Secondly, based on the existing research, a multi-classification and orderly Logistic regression model was constructed from the perspective of farmers. Taking the farmers in Ruian as the survey object, 208 questionnaires were issued and 200 valid questionnaires were recovered.According to the empirical analysis, the characteristic factors affecting the mortgage risk of farmhouses include the sex, age, marriage, education level, personal annual income, family annual income, term of intended loan, total amount of existing loan, number of house ownership and whether to buy a house in the city. On this basis, the risk management mechanism of farmhouse mortgage loan including environmental protection, risk prevention, risk control, risk transfer, farmhouse disposal and household security is put forward. Finally, the conclusion of the study provides a basis for the government to improve relevant policies and for the bank to prevent and control risk. KEYWORDS: Farmhouse Mortgage；Risk Management； Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation；Ordinal Logistic Regression TYPE OF DISSERTATION / THESIS:Application Fundamenta浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 I 目 录 1 绪论...........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究意义.............................................................................................................2 1.2.1 理论意义.....................................................................................................3 1.2.2 现实意义.....................................................................................................3 1.3 研究目的与内容.................................................................................................3 1.3.1 研究目的.....................................................................................................3 1.3.2 研究内容.....................................................................................................4 1.4 研究方法与技术路线.........................................................................................5 1.4.1 研究方法.....................................................................................................5 1.4.2 研究技术路线.............................................................................................6 1.5 创新点.................................................................................................................6 2 理论基础与国内外研究..........................................................................8 2.1 相关概念界定.....................................................................................................8 2.1.1 农房.............................................................................................................8 2.1.2 农房抵押贷款.............................................................................................8 2.1.3 农房抵押贷款风险.....................................................................................9 2.2 理论基础.............................................................................................................9 2.2.1 农村金融理论.............................................................................................9 2.2.2 产权理论...................................................................................................11 2.2.3 风险管理理论...........................................................................................12 2.3 研究现状...........................................................................................................13 2.3.1 国外相关研究...........................................................................................13 2.3.2 国内相关研究...........................................................................................15 2.4 本章小结...........................................................................................................18 3 温州市农房抵押贷款概述....................................................................19 3.1 发展历史...........................................................................................................19 3.1.1 民间自发探索阶段...................................................................................19 3.1.2 地方政府默许支持阶段...........................................................................19 3.1.3 规范创新试点阶段...................................................................................20 3.2 发展现状...........................................................................................................22 3.3 主要做法与经验...............................................................................................23浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 II 3.3.1 完善政策体系...........................................................................................23 3.3.2 形成操作模式...........................................................................................24 3.3.3 攻克处置难题...........................................................................................25 3.4 存在的问题.......................................................................................................26 3.4.1 法律法规尚未完善...................................................................................26 3.4.2 配套服务尚未成熟...................................................................................26 3.4.3 流转交易平台尚未搭建...........................................................................27 3.5 本章小节...........................................................................................................27 4 农房抵押贷款风险分析与评估............................................................28 4.1 农房抵押贷款风险分类...................................................................................28 4.1.1 按风险环境分类.......................................................................................28 4.1.2 按风险参与主体分类...............................................................................28 4.1.3 按生命周期分类.......................................................................................29 4.2 农房抵押整体风险评价体系建立...................................................................31 4.3 农房抵押贷款整体风险评估...........................................................................32 4.3.1 问卷形成与发放.......................................................................................33 4.3.2 数据的回收与处理...................................................................................33 4.3.3 数据质量分析...........................................................................................38 4.3.4 风险程度的综合评价...............................................................................41 4.3.5 实证结果分析...........................................................................................43 4.4 本章小结...........................................................................................................47 5 影响农房抵押贷款风险的微观因素实证分析...................................48 5.1 数据来源...........................................................................................................48 5.2 变量选择与定义...............................................................................................48 5.2.1 因变量定义...............................................................................................48 5.2.2 自变量定义...............................................................................................48 5.3 样本描述性统计分析.......................................................................................51 5.3.1 个人特征分析...........................................................................................51 5.3.2 农房抵押贷款意愿分析...........................................................................53 5.4 模型选择与构建...............................................................................................53 5.5 模型评价...........................................................................................................55 5.6 回归模型的结果...............................................................................................55 5.7 本章小结...........................................................................................................58浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 农房抵押贷款风险评价与管理策略研究——以瑞安市为例 III 6 农房抵押贷款风险管理机制设计与分析........................................... 59 6.1 构建环境保障机制...........................................................................................59 6.1.1 完善法律法规...........................................................................................59 6.1.2 深化配套服务...........................................................................................60 6.2 构建风险预防机制...........................................................................................60 6.2.1 科学选择试点...........................................................................................60 6.2.2 推进农村信用体系建设...........................................................................61 6.3 构建风险控制机制...........................................................................................61 6.3.1 规范抵押贷款流程...................................................................................61 6.3.2 实行差异化风险管理...............................................................................61 6.4 构建风险转移机制...........................................................................................62 6.4.1 完善风险补偿机制...................................................................................62 6.4.2 创新保险制度...........................................................................................62 6.5 构建农房处置机制...........................................................................................62 6.5.1 建设农房流转交易平台...........................................................................62 6.5.2 优化处置程序和方式...............................................................................63 6.5.3 强化司法保障...........................................................................................63 6.6 构建农户保障机制...........................................................................................63 6.6.1 健全农村社会保障...................................................................................63 6.6.2 建立风险救助机制...................................................................................63 7 研究结论与展望....................................................................................64 7.1 研究结论...........................................................................................................64 7.2 研究不足与展望...............................................................................................65