鉴于电力项目投资建设周期较长、投资数额较大且投资回报期较长、事关地 方经济社会可持续发展等特性，开展拟投资建设项目的可行性研究是避免决策失 误、规避风险的重要手段。本文运用项目可行性研究的原理和方法，以陕西省某 电厂一期工程为例，开展了项目的可行性研究。 本报告从燃料供应、厂址条件研究和装机方案分析等方面，进行了项目的技 术可行性分析；通过厂址环境现状分析及项目建设的环境影响预测、项目建设的 防治措施原则及措施的评价，完成了项目的环境可行性分析；通过投资估算与财 务分析的方法，评价了项目的经济效益；最后，从市场、技术、工程、资金、政 策及外部协作六个风险因素出发，进行了项目的不确定性分析，预测了项目的潜 在风险，指出了工程风险相对最大，需对拟选厂址的采空区场地治理后方可视为 正常地基进行工程建设。 综合技术、环境经济、财务和投资风险等分析的结果表明，某电厂一期工程 项目的技术与环境条件完备、经济效益指标比较理想，项目的建设是可行的。本 项目利用当地煤炭资源优势，对陕西省及延安地区的经济突破性发展有着积极的 推动作用，本工程的实施将产生可观的经济效益和社会效益。 关 键 词：电厂；可行性研究；技术经济分析；风险分析；投资回收期 报告类型：应用基础研究西安建筑科技大学工程硕士学位报告 Feasibility study on the first-stage project of a power plant Specialty: Project Management Author: Xiang Xu Adviser: Prof. Changming Hu Senior Engineer Xiaotao He ABSTRACT The feasibility study of the project, which was planned to invest and construct, was an important way to avoid risk decision-making errors due to the features of electric power project such as the longer investment and construction cycle, the larger investment, the longer investments return and the impact of local economic and social sustainable development. Principle and method of project feasibility study was applied in this study. The first-stage project of a power plant in Shaanxi Province was taken as a good example in the feasibility study. Five topics were discussed in this paper. Firstly，the project background such as the general situation of the power plant project and construction necessity were introduced. Secondly, the technical feasibility of the project was analyzed from the fuel supply, the site conditions research, and installed scheme analysis. Thirdly, the feasibility analysis of the project environment was completed through the analysis of the present environment, the prediction of the environmental impact, the prevention and control measures of the project construction and measures of evaluation. Fourthly, the economic benefits of project were evaluated by the method of investment estimate and financial analysis. Finally, the potential risks of the project were forecasted from six risk factors, such as the market, the technology, the engineering, the capital, the policy and the external collaboration. It was pointed out that the engineering risk西安建筑科技大学工程硕士学位报告 seemed to be the highest among other risks, thus it was recommended that the site destroyed by small coalpit mining could meet the requirement for power plant engineering construction only when some proper treatment measures were adopted. According to the analysis results of technique, environmental economics, finance and investment risk, it was shown that the technical and environmental conditions of the power plant project was completed well, the economic benefit index was reached roughly and the construction of the project was feasible. The project made full use of the local coal resources advantages, and made a positive role of economic development of Shaanxi and Yan'an area. The implementation of the project would generate considerable economic and social benefits. Key words: Power plant; feasibility study; techno-economic analysis; risk analysis; investment recovery period Type of thesis: theoretical application西安建筑科技大学工程硕士学位报告 I 目 录 1 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义...................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究动态...................................................................................2 1.3 研究方法与研究内容...........................................................................4 1.3.1 研究方法....................................................................................4 1.3.2 研究内容....................................................................................4 1.3.3 技术路线....................................................................................5 2 电厂项目概况及建设必要性..........................................................................6 2.1 项目概况...............................................................................................6 2.2 电力系统分析.......................................................................................7 2.2.1 电力系统现状............................................................................7 2.2.2 电力负荷预测............................................................................9 2.2.3 电力电量平衡..........................................................................10 2.2.4 本电厂项目建设的必要性......................................................14 2.3 本章小结.............................................................................................15 3 项目建设的技术可行性分析........................................................................16 3.1 燃料供应.............................................................................................16 3.1.1 煤源..........................................................................................16 3.1.2 煤质分析..................................................................................17 3.1.3 燃煤量......................................................................................18 3.1.4 燃料运输..................................................................................18 3.2 厂址条件研究.....................................................................................19 3.2.1 本项目的厂址条件分析..........................................................19 3.2.2 厂址推荐意见..........................................................................26 3.3 装机方案分析.....................................................................................30西安建筑科技大学工程硕士学位报告 II 3.3.1 装机方案..................................................................................30 3.3.2 主机技术条件..........................................................................30 3.4 本章小结.............................................................................................32 4 项目环境可行性分析....................................................................................33 4.1 厂址环境现状分析及项目建设的环境影响预测.............................33 4.1.1 厂址地区环境现状..................................................................33 4.1.2 污染物排放情况及环境影响分析..........................................35 4.2 项目建设的防治措施原则.................................................................39 4.2.1 设计采用的环境保护标准......................................................39 4.2.2 污染防治措施..........................................................................39 4.3 环境治理和水土保持措施.................................................................41 4.4 本章小结.............................................................................................42 5 投资估算及财务分析....................................................................................43 5.1 投资估算.............................................................................................43 5.2 经济效益分析.....................................................................................46 5.2.1 基本数据..................................................................................46 5.2.2 财务评价..................................................................................47 5.2.3 不确定性分析..........................................................................48 5.2.4 综合经济评价..........................................................................50 5.3 本章小结.............................................................................................50 6 项目风险分析................................................................................................51 6.1 市场风险分析.....................................................................................51 6.2 技术风险分析.....................................................................................51 6.3 工程风险分析.....................................................................................52 6.4 资金风险分析.....................................................................................53 6.5 政策风险分析.....................................................................................53 6.6 外部协作风险分析.............................................................................54西安建筑科技大学工程硕士学位报告 III 6.7 本章小结.............................................................................................54 7 结论与建议....................................................................................................55 7.1 结论.....................................................................................................55 7.2 建议.....................................................................................................56 致 谢..................................................................................................................57