公路建设项目可行性研究是公路建设前期工作的核心。可行性研究技术包括预测技 术、工程技术和评价技术。随着我国公路建设的迅猛发展，公路可行性研究技术也在不断 发展、日臻完善。 本文从分析可行性研究的意义、内容、方法入手，结合国内外可行性研究方法最新研 究成果，对公路可行性研究的预测技术和经济评价技术进行了较为深入的理论研究和应用 分析。 本文共分五章。第一章简要介绍了可行性研究的概念、地位和作用。对可行性研究中 应论述的建设必要性、经济合理性、技术可行性、实施可能性进行了分析，首次提出了建 设项目环境可容性的理念；第二章在阐述和总结公路建设项目可行性研究内容、研究方法 的基础上，提出了公路项目可行性研究系统框图；第三章从交通需求产生机理分析入手， 对交通需求预测原理进行了分析论述，对比分析了交通需求预测常规方法和基于区域经济 学分区理论基础上的“四阶段法”的优缺点和适用性，并对各种分配模型进行了讨论；第 四章通过对交通需求预测技术的分析评价，建立了符合湖南省公路建设可行性研究所需的 交通预测模型，重点对多路径概率分配法和容量限制法的模型和算法进行了研究，对公路 交通阻抗函数进行了系统分析；第五章探讨了经济评价理论和方法，并给出了项目经济评 价实例。 本报告结合湖南省公路建设可行性研究实践，总结结验，并依托湖南省交通厅科技项 目《公路建设项目可行性研究交通量预测及经济评价计算机应用集成系统开发》课题，针 对交通量分析预测、经济评价等公路可行性研究最重要部分的技术及应用，开发研制了“交 通量预测及经济评价计算机应用集成系统”。 关键词：可行性研究；公路建设；交通预测；经济评价；计算机模型Abstract Feasibility study is a key work in the preliminary phase of highway construction project. It deals with a series of forcasting technique, project technique and assessment technique. With the rapid development of highway construction, the feasibility study has been making great advances. Starting with the significances, contents and methods of feasibility study, this dissertation conducted a thorough theoretical study and application analysis on forcasting technique and economic evaluation technique of highway feasibility study based on up-to-date achievements. There are five chapters involved in the dissertation. The first one simply introduced the conception and effect of feasibility study，and firstly put forward the notion of environmental admissibility by analyzing the contents of feasibility study, which included constructive necessity, economical rationality, technical feasibility and implementary possibility. After summarizing the contents and measures of highway feasibility study，the chapter 2 presented a flowchart of feasibility study work. The chapter 3 demonstrated the theory of traffic demand forcasting by analyzing the mechanism of generation of traffic demand; analyzed the applicability of the general traffic demand forcasting method and the “four phase method” by contrasting their charicteristics ； and discussed all kinds of allocation models. Based on analyzing and summarizing the existing traffic demand forcasting techniques，the chapter 4 established traffic forcasting models for feasibility study of the Hunan province highway construction project. The important points of this chapter are to study the model and algorithm of multipath probabilistic method and capacity restraint method，and to analyze the impedance function of transportation. Finally, the chapter 5 discussed the theoretic and method of economic appraisal. An example was gived to explain economic appraisal method. This paper summed up the experiences of the Hunan province highway feasibility study, and developed the computer-integrated system used for traffic forcasting and economic appraisal for highway construction project. Key words: feasibility study; highway construction; traffic forcasting; economic appraisal; computer model目 录 摘要...................................................................................................................................... V ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................VI 第 1 章 绪 论..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 本文研究的目的意义 ...................................................................................................... 3 1.4 本文主要研究内容及拟解决的问题 .............................................................................. 4 第 2 章 公路建设项目可行性研究的内容和方法................................................................... 6 2.1 公路可行性研究的内容 .................................................................................................. 6 2.2 公路项目可行性研究一般方法 ...................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 公路项目可行性研究一般过程................................................................................ 6 2.2.2 公路项目可行性研究预测........................................................................................ 6 2.2.3 公路项目可行性研究经济评价................................................................................ 9 第 3 章 公路交通需求预测技术........................................................................................... 10 3.1 概述 ................................................................................................................................ 10 3.2 交通需求预测一般技术 ................................................................................................ 10 3.2.1 直接预测法.............................................................................................................. 11 3.2.2 间接预测法.............................................................................................................. 13 3.3 “四阶段法”预测技术 ................................................................................................ 13 3.3.1 社会经济预测.......................................................................................................... 18 3.3.2 交通发生预测.......................................................................................................... 18 3.3.3 交通分布预测.......................................................................................................... 21 3.3.4 交通分配预测.......................................................................................................... 26 第 4 章 公路建设项目交通预测计算机系统模型研究......................................................... 32 4.1 系统模型研究及其说明 ................................................................................................. 32 4.2 多路径概率分配法 ........................................................................................................ 32 4.2.1 多路径概率分配法模型及其算法........................................................................... 32 4.2.2 多路径概率分配模型的改进.................................................................................. 354.2.3 多路径概率分配模型的快速算法.......................................................................... 40 4.3 容量限制分配法 ............................................................................................................ 43 4.3.1 公路交通阻抗（路阻）函数................................................................................... 43 4.3.2 现行路阻函数存在的问题...................................................................................... 45 4.3.3 路阻函数的调整....................................................................................................... 46 4.3.4 容量限制分配模型的算法....................................................................................... 48 第 5 章 经济评价理论与方法............................................................................................... 53 5.1 经济评价的概念 ............................................................................................................ 53 5.2 交通项目经济评价方法 ................................................................................................ 53 5.3 国民经济评价 ................................................................................................................ 54 5.3.1 国民经济评价主要特征.......................................................................................... 54 5.3.2 国民经济效益的识别与测算.................................................................................. 55 5.3.3 国民经济费用的识别与测算.................................................................................. 57 5.3.4 国民经济评价主要参数.......................................................................................... 57 5.3.5 国民经济评价指标.................................................................................................. 58 5.4 财务评价 ........................................................................................................................ 58 5.4.1 财务费用和财务收入.............................................................................................. 58 5.4.2 财务评价主要参数.................................................................................................. 59 5.4.3 财务评价指标.......................................................................................................... 59 5.5 不确定性分析 ................................................................................................................ 60 5.6 经济评价实例 ................................................................................................................ 60 5.6.1 评价原则.................................................................................................................. 60 5.6.2 评价参数.................................................................................................................. 60 5.6.3 国民经济评价费用调整.......................................................................................... 61 5.6.4 评价指标.................................................................................................................. 61 结论与展望..................................................................................................................................I