I 摘要 目前房地产业依旧是关系国计民生的重要行业，房地产业也是一个 回报率与风险率均很高的行业，因此房地产的可行性研究方案就显得非 常重要，除了关系到开发商是否盈利，也会影响当地的经济发展以及人 民群众的生活等各个方面，这就需要通过科学的方法构建出合理的房地 产可行性分析报告，帮助房地产项目按质按量的完成，并投入使用。 通过本文的探讨，将房地产景气因素与房地产业投资意愿相关性统 计分析，作系统化汇整，掌握房地产景气循环的根本原因，使房地产业 对景气敏感度更加提升，健全管理系统作业，增进市场竞争力，使企业 在不景气环境下也能创造利润。本研究拟针对武汉市房地产景气对房地 产业的投资影响，系统化的说明探讨房地产景气与房地产业投资的相关 性，经由文献回顾、专家访谈、问卷调查建立房地产业投资房地产意愿 的评估因素准则，并应用层次分析法(AHP)决定各因素的权重，以了解 各因素的相关性。最后通过对 A 地块红霞村房地产项目投资可行性进行 实证研究，说明该项目的投资可行性。 关键词，房地产、投资、层次分析法、可行性分析Abstract III Abstract At present, the real estate industry is still an important industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The real estate industry is also an industry with a high rate of return and risk. Therefore, the feasibility study scheme of real estate is very important. In addition to whether the developers are profitable, it will also affect the local economic development and people's lives. In this respect, it is necessary to construct a reasonable feasibility analysis report of real estate through scientific methods, to help the real estate projects to be completed in accordance with the quality and quantity, and put into use. Through the discussion of this paper, the correlation between the real estate boom factors and the real estate industry investment intention is analyzed and systematically consolidated, and the fundamental reasons of the real estate boom cycle are grasped, so as to make the real estate industry more sensitive to the boom, improve the management system operation, enhance the market competitiveness, and make the enterprise also in the downturn environment. It can create profits. This study aims at the impact of the real estate boom on the real estate investment in Wuhan, and systematically discusses the correlation between the real estate boom and the real estate investment. Through literature review, expert interviews and questionnaires, the paper establishes the evaluation criteria of the real estate investment willingness of the real estate industry, and uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine each factor. The weights of factors are used to understand the correlation of various factors. Finally, through the empirical study of the investment feasibility of the real estate project in Hongxia Village, the feasibility of the project is illustrated.武汉工程大学硕士学位 IV Keywords: Real estate, investment, analytic hierarchy process, feasibility analysis目录 V 目 录 摘要..I Abstract ...III 目 录..V 第 1 章 绪 论.1 1.1 研究背景.....1 1.2 研究意义.....2 1.3 国内外研究现状.....2 1.4 研究内容.....4 1.5 拟采取的研究方法、技术路线.....5 第 2 章 理论基础.7 2.1 房地产与房地产业定义.....7 2.2 武汉市房地产楼盘探讨.....7 2.3 房地产业特性探讨.8 2.4 房地产消费购房行为分析.....10 2.4.1 认知房价...10 2.4.2 房屋质量...11 2.5 影响房地产投资因素探讨.....12 2.5.1 房地产景气指标...12 2.5.2 房地产景气具房地产业投资影响因素...12 第 3 章 房地产投资可行性评价体系研究.15 3.1 层次分析法.....15 3.1.1AHP 理论..15 3.1.2 分析步骤...17 3.2 可行性因素考察问卷设计.....18武汉工程大学硕士学位 VI 3.3 问卷整理结果.22 3.4 第一阶段评估因素修正...23 3.5 确认评估因素.25 3.6 第二阶段 AHP 问卷结果.....28 3.6.1 评估二级项目分析28 3.6.2 评估准则分析.29 3.6.3AHP 问卷整体权重排名..36 3.6.4 武汉市房地产业投资房地产相关因素权重的建立.38 第 4 章 A 地块红霞村房地产项目投资可行性实证研究.43 4.1 项目简介...43 4.1.1 项目经济因素分析.....46 4.1.2 政府政策因素分析.....46 4.1.3 社会及政治因素分析.47 4.1.4 楼盘区域性的选择分析...47 4.1.5 楼盘自然条件分析.....47 4.1.6 房地产供需分析...47 4.1.7 销售楼盘条件分析.....48 4.2A 地块红霞村房地产项目投资可行性评价..48 4.2.1 模糊评价数字化....48 4.2.2 指标权重的确定....49 4.2.3 单因素隶属度评判50 4.2.4 模糊综合评价..52 4.3 综合分析...58 第 5 章 结论与展望.61 5.1 结论.....61 5.2 展望.....62目录 VII