摘 要 随着我国经济社会的快速发展,人们对旅游的需求上升到了一个更高的层次,休闲 度假旅游已经成为了我国旅游业发展的主旋律作为休闲度假旅游重要组成部分的休闲 农业,更是得到了快速的发展本报告以清远的YR休闲农庄项目作为研究对象,通过 商业计划书的形式,运用战略管理学!营销管理学和财务管理学等方面的理论,对项目 的各个方面进行详细的分析和总体规划这不仅为本项目绘画出发展的蓝图,增强创业 信心,同时也向风险投资者做出介绍,有利于筹集资金 本文首先对项目背景!战略规划!园区设计与运营管理和产品及盈利模式等方面进 行了归纳接着,运用PEST模型和五力模型分别对宏观环境和行业竞争环境进行了分 析,并运用SWOT分析法对项目的优劣势以及外部的机会与威胁进行了分析,由此可知, 项目面临的外部环境十分有利,而且内部优势远大于劣势在此基础上,通过STP营销 为本项目选择了目标市场,并对项目的产品!品牌!功能和形象进行了定位;然后进行 了市场需求分析,并据此合理地制定了营销目标;随后运用4P以及7P理论为项目制定了 营销组合策略,以达到宣传品牌!扩大知名度和提高市场占有份额的目的在营销计划 的基础上,将农庄的园区划分为九大功能区域,接着给出了项目建设计划,介绍了组织 结构和管理团队,并制定了人员的配置计划及薪酬计划 在以上分析的基础上,进行了投融资计划与退出方式说明!收入和支出预测!现金 流预测和项目效益评价等方面的工作本项目初始投资为1000万元,其中的450万元计 划向风险投资者融资;项目资本成本为12.0822%;项目前七年的净现值(NPV)为1297.73 万元,远大于零;前七年的修正内部收益率(MIRR)为26.23%,大于项目资本成本; 项目在2017年末的持续价值为6452.72万元;动态投资回收期为3.79年,低于投资者期望 的5年投资回收期,可见本项目的经济效益十分显著最后,风险分析表明,本项目的 风险较小 关键词:清远旅游;休闲农业;商业计划书 Abstract With the rapid development of China's economy and society, people's demand of tourism has been up to a higher level, and leisure tourism has become the development mainstream of tourism industry in China. As an important component of leisure tourism, leisure agriculture has developed more rapidly. This dissertation is a business plan on the project of YR Leisure Agriculture Garden in Qingyuan. This business plan uses the Strategy Management theory, Marketing Management theory and Financial Management theory etc. to analyze and overall plan the project. This is not only a development blueprint for the project which could enhance our confidence for starting a business, but also a plan which could be introduced to the Venture Capitalists in order to help the project raise funds. Firstly, the project background, strategy planning, garden design, operation management, product and profit model are described. Then we make use of the PEST Model and the Five-force Competition Model to analyze the macro environment and the industry competition environment, and make use of the SWOT Model to analyze the internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats. From the above analysis, we know that the project is facing very favorable external environment and internal strengths exceed internal weaknesses. On the above basis, we make use of the STP Marketing Model to select the project's target markets, and the project's products, brand, functions and image are positioned. After that, we analyze the market demand, and rationally set market goals. Then we make use of 4P and 7P Model to develop marketing mix strategies for the project in order to promote the brand and increase market share. On the marketing plan basis, we divide the garden into nine zones. Then construction plans for the project are given. We also introduce the organizational structure and management team of the project, and then formulate the staffing plan and the salary expenditure plan. Base on the above analysis, we describe the investment and financing plan, exit methods of the Capital, estimation of revenue, estimation of expenditure, estimation of incremental cash flow and project benefit evaluation. This project's initial investment is 10 million Yuan, of which 4.5 million Yuan needs to be raise from the Venture Capitalists. The Cost of Capitals of the project is 12.0822%. The Net Present Value (NPV) in previous seven years is 12.9773 million Yuan which is much larger than zero. The Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) in previous seven years is 26.23% which is greater than the Cost of Capitals of the project. The Continuing Value in the end of 2017 is 64.5272 million Yuan. The Dynamic Payback Period is 3.79 years which is lower than 5 years that the investors expect. It can be concluded that the project's benefit is very significant. Finally, the risk analysis shows that the risk of the project is low. Key Words: Tourism of Qingyuan, Leisure Agriculture, Business Plan 目 录 摘 要 ......................................................................................................................................... I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单 ................................................................................................................................. VII 第一章 绪 论 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究的背景和意义 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述 .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书编制方面 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 战略管理方面 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 营销管理方面 ............................................................................................................ 4 1.2.4 财务管理方面 ............................................................................................................ 5 1.2.5 休闲农业与休闲度假旅游方面 ................................................................................ 6 1.3 研究的方法与内容 .......................................................................................................... 8 第二章 项目概况 .................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 项目简介 ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.1.1 项目背景 ................................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 项目的发起 ............................................................................................................. 11 2.1.3 项目的选址 ............................................................................................................. 12 2.2 战略规划 ........................................................................................................................ 12 2.2.1 公司使命和目标 ..................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 项目发展规划 ......................................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 项目市场规划 ......................................................................................................... 13 2.3 园区设计与运营管理概述 ............................................................................................ 14 2.4 产品及盈利模式 ............................................................................................................ 15 2.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 17 第三章 环境分析 .................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 宏观环境分析 ................................................................................................................ 19 3.1.1 政策环境 ................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.2 经济环境 ................................................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 社会环境 ................................................................................................................. 21 3.1.4 技术环境 ................................................................................................................. 22 3.2 行业环境分析 ................................................................................................................ 23 3.2.1 行业概述 ................................................................................................................. 23 3.2.2 行业竞争五力分析 ................................................................................................. 25 3.3 SWOT 分析 .................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.1 优势 ......................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.2 劣势 ......................................................................................................................... 29 3.3.3 机会 ......................................................................................................................... 29 3.3.4 威胁 ......................................................................................................................... 30 3.3.5 组合分析 ................................................................................................................. 30 3.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 31 第四章 营销计划 .................................................................................................................... 32 4.1 STP 营销 ......................................................................................................................... 32 4.1.1 市场细分 ................................................................................................................. 32 4.1.2 目标市场选择 ......................................................................................................... 33 4.1.3 市场定位 ................................................................................................................. 34 4.2 市场需求与营销目标 .................................................................................................... 34 4.2.1 市场需求分析 ......................................................................................................... 35 4.2.2 营销目标 ................................................................................................................. 36 4.3 营销组合策略 ................................................................................................................ 36 4.3.1 产品策略 ................................................................................................................. 37 4.3.2 分销策略 ................................................................................................................. 38 4.3.3 价格策略 ................................................................................................................. 39 4.3.4 促销策略 ................................................................................................................. 40 4.3.5 其它策略 ................................................................................................................. 43 4.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 43 第五章 园区设计与运营管理 ................................................................................................ 45 5.1 园区设计方案 ................................................................................................................ 45 5.2 项目建设计划 ................................................................................................................ 49 5.3 组织管理计划 ................................................................................................................ 50 5.3.1 组织结构 ................................................................................................................. 50 5.3.2 管理团队 ................................................................................................................. 52 5.3.3 人员的配置及薪酬 ................................................................................................. 53 5.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 56 第六章 财务计划 .................................................................................................................... 57 6.1 必要的说明和假设 ........................................................................................................ 57 6.2 投融资计划与退出方式 ................................................................................................ 60 6.2.1 投资计划 ................................................................................................................. 60 6.2.2 融资计划 ................................................................................................................. 62 6.2.3 退出方式 ................................................................................................................. 62 6.3 项目经营预测 ................................................................................................................ 63 6.3.1 收入预测 ................................................................................................................. 63 6.3.2 支出预测 ................................................................................................................. 67 6.3.3 现金流预测 ............................................................................................................. 73 6.4 项目效益评价 ................................................................................................................ 78 6.4.1 项目资本成本的确定 ............................................................................................. 78 6.4.2 项目的净现值 ......................................................................................................... 80 6.4.3 项目的内部收益率 ................................................................................................. 81 6.4.4 项目的投资回收期 ................................................................................................. 82 6.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 83 第七章 风险管理 .................................................................................................................... 84 7.1 风险定性分析 ................................................................................................................ 84 7.1.1 政策风险及对策 ..................................................................................................... 84 7.1.2 管理风险及对策 ..................................................................................................... 85 7.1.3 经营风险及对策 ..................................................................................................... 85 7.1.4 财务风险及对策 ..................................................................................................... 86 7.1.5 自然环境风险及对策 .............................................................................................. 87 7.2 风险定量分析 ................................................................................................................ 87 7.2.1 单因素敏感性分析 ................................................................................................. 87 7.2.2 多因素敏感性分析 ................................................................................................. 88 7.3 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 89 结 论 ...................................................................................................................................... 90 参考文献 .................................................................................................................................. 92 附 录