送变电扩容项目是电网公司比较常见的建设项目之一，在建设前期必须经过一 系列调研、评价和决策，才能进入建设周期。而项目可行性分析是通过对项目进行 科学的分析和综合评价，将复杂的项目建设分析评价体系简单化，变为具有不同级 数的综合评价体系，进而简化决策过程。因此项目可行性分析对于项目的建设具有 十分重要的意义。本文从建设必要性、技术、经济、环保的角度，结合模糊综合评 价以及层次分析法，对内蒙古鄂尔多斯市新街送变电扩容项目进行了可行性研究。 最终研究结果表明本项目可行。 关键词，可行性分析、送变电扩容项目、模糊综合评价、层次分析法II Abstract Sends change capacity expansion project of electric is a common construction project of power grid companies. Before construct it must pass through a series research, evaluation and decision then enter the construction period. The decisions depend on the feasibility report of its specific circumstances and it can make the complex feasibility report simplification by scientific analysis and comprehensive evaluation. Therefore project feasibility analysis is very important for projects construction. This paper research of the feasibility of sends change capacity expansion project of electric in New-street Ordos Inner Mongolia by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process from construction necessity, technical, economic and environmental protection. The research results show that the project is feasible. Keywords: feasibility analysis; sends change capacity expansion project of electric; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; analytic hierarchy processIII 目 录 摘要...................................................................................................................................I Abstract .............................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪 论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外研究发展综述 .......................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外研究综述 ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 国内研究综述 ............................................................................................ 3 1.3 工程项目可行性分析综述 .................................................................................. 3 1.3.1 项目可行性分析的基本概念和作用 ........................................................ 3 1.3.2 项目可行性分析的基本原则 .................................................................... 5 1.3.3 项目可行性分析的主要内容 .................................................................... 6 1.4 本文研究的主要内容 .......................................................................................... 8 第二章 新街送变电扩容项目项目必要性分析............................................................ 10 2.1 电力负荷预测 .................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 电力负荷预测方法综述 .......................................................................... 10 2.1.2 一次指数平滑预测法 .............................................................................. 11 2.1.3 负荷预测值计算 ...................................................................................... 12 2.2 变电站项目经济效益分析 ................................................................................ 13 2.2.1 项目投资分析 .......................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 项目融资方案分析 .................................................................................. 14 2.2.3 财务及效益分析 ...................................................................................... 14 2.3 项目建设必要性分析 ........................................................................................ 16 2.3.1 满足地区负荷增长的需要 ...................................................................... 16 2.3.2 提高地区供电可靠性 .............................................................................. 16 第三章 鄂尔多斯新街送变电扩容项目选址定容研究................................................ 17 3.1 变电站站址选择 ................................................................................................ 17 3.1.1 站址初选 .................................................................................................. 17 3.1.2 站址选择 .................................................................................................. 18 3.2 变电站容量选择 ................................................................................................ 19 3.2.1 接入系统方案 .......................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 主变规模 .................................................................................................. 19 3.2.3 变电站出线规模 ...................................................................................... 19 3.2.4 无功补偿容量 .......................................................................................... 19IV 3.3 项目工程进度分析 ............................................................................................ 20 第四章 鄂尔多斯新街送变电扩容项目设备和工艺方案选择.................................... 21 4.1 主要电气设备选择 ............................................................................................ 21 4.1.1 220kV 变电站 ........................................................................................... 21 4.1.2 对侧新街 110kV 变电站 ......................................................................... 21 4.2 系统继电保护及安全自动装置方案 ................................................................ 24 4.2.1 220kV 部分 ............................................................................................... 24 4.2.2 110kV 部分， ........................................................................................... 25 4.3 调度自动化方案 ................................................................................................ 25 4.3.1 远动系统方案 .......................................................................................... 25 4.3.2 安防遥视系统 .......................................................................................... 26 4.3.3 电力二次系统安全防护 .......................................................................... 26 4.4 系统通信方案 .................................................................................................... 26 4.4.1 新街 220kV 变建设方案 ......................................................................... 26 4.4.2 新街 110kV 变侧间隔建设方案 ............................................................. 27 4.4.3 通道组织方案 .......................................................................................... 27 4.4.4 系统保护通道组织方案 .......................................................................... 28 4.4.5 站内通信方案 .......................................................................................... 29 4.5 输电线路布置方案 ............................................................................................ 29 4.5.1 新街 220kV 变电站出线 ......................................................................... 29 4.5.2 新街 110kV 变电站出线 ......................................................................... 30 第五章 新街送变电扩容项目环境保护分析................................................................ 31 5.1 站区环境概况 .................................................................................................... 31 5.2 主要污染源及环境影响分析 ............................................................................ 31 5.2.1 环境空气 .................................................................................................. 31 5.2.2 废污水 ...................................................................................................... 31 5.2.3 噪声 .......................................................................................................... 31 5.2.4 固体废物 .................................................................................................. 32 5.2.5 电磁辐射及无线电干扰 .......................................................................... 32 5.3 污染防治措施 .................................................................................................... 32 5.3.1 环境空气污染防治措施 .......................................................................... 32 5.3.2 水污染防治措施 ...................................................................................... 33 5.3.3 噪声防治措施 .......................................................................................... 33 5.3.4 固体废物防治措施 .................................................................................. 33 5.3.5 电磁环境影响防治措施 .......................................................................... 33V 第六章 新街送变电扩容项目综合评价........................................................................ 34 6.1 新街送变电扩容项目综合评价指标体系的建立 ............................................ 34 6.1.1 层次分析法的基本原理 ........................................................................... 34 6.1.2 综合评价指标体系 .................................................................................. 34 6.2 模糊综合评价方法 [27-29] .................................................................................... 35 6.2.1 因素集的建立 .......................................................................................... 35 6.2.2 评价集的建立 .......................................................................................... 35 6.2.3 评价矩阵的建立 ...................................................................................... 36 6.2.4 权重向量的建立 ...................................................................................... 36 6.2.5 合成综合评价结果 .................................................................................. 38 6.3 新街送变电扩容项目模糊综合评价过程 ........................................................ 38 6.3.1 指标评价分数 .......................................................................................... 38 6.3.2 权重 .......................................................................................................... 39 6.3.3 一致性检验 .............................................................................................. 41 6.3.4 评价矩阵 .................................................................................................. 41 6.3.5 评价结果合成 .......................................................................................... 42 第七章 结 论.................................................................................................................. 44