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2020年MBA毕业论文_养老基金投资基础设施的可行性分析DOC

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在如今全球经济大环境不景气的情况下,拉动内需,是刺激经济的主要途径。随 着我国城镇化进程的加快,基础设施的需求也在日益增加,以往钢铁等行业过剩的产 能可以用于基础设施的建设,而基础设施项目通常具有投资周期较长、资金需求较大、 投资收益稳定的特点,养老金经过多年的积累,有着巨额的累积,同时养老金对投资 安全性和稳定性十分重视,二者结合不仅具有较高的匹配程度,同时可以形成良好的 循环,是一个互利共赢的局面。 国外在养老金投资基础设施领域已经进行了近三十年的探索,也取得了一定成果, 对基础设施可以更好地维持经济增长和提高养老金投资收益率方面也达成了共识。反 观我国,养老金在基础设施投资领域的探索起步较晚,研究成果以定性描述为主且方 法比较单一,尚未构成完整的理论框架和体系。同时受限于相关数据资料的匮乏,实 证检验方面可供参考的资料也较少。 本文先从理论角度对养老金投资基础设施项目的可行性进行分析,着重分析二者 的匹配程度和投资的具体流程,以过去十多年间相关资产收益率为基础进行实证分析, 得出养老金和基础设施项目二者可以达到互利共赢的局面的结论。同时参考国外的成 功案例,对我国未来养老金投资基础设施项目的提出建议。 关键词:养老金;基础设施;投资;可行性西华大学硕士学位论文 Abstract In the current global economic environment recession, stimulating domestic demand, is the main way to stimulate the economy.With the speeding up of urbanization process in our country, the infrastructure needs are also increasing, in industries such as steel excess capacity can be used in the construction of infrastructure, and infrastructure investment as the subject matter has the characteristics of low risk, long cycle and sTab le return, these characteristics fit the pension for investments as the main factor.Therefore, promoting pension investment in infrastructure projects not only has a high degree of matching, but also can form a good cycle between the two, which is a win-win situation. Foreign countries have been exploring the pension investment in infrastructure for nearly three decades and have made some achievements. There is also a consensus that infrastructure can better maintain economic growth and improve the pension investment rate of return.In contrast, in China, the exploration of pension in the field of infrastructure investment started late. The research results are mainly qualitative description and the method is relatively simple, which has not yet formed a complete theoretical framework and system.At the same time, due to the lack of relevant data, there are few data available for empirical test. This article first from the perspective of theory, the pension investment infrastructure project feasibility analysis, focusing on the analysis of the matching degree and the investment process, on the basis of the past ten years relevant return on assets for the empirical analysis, draw a pension and infrastructure projects both can reach the conclusion of mutually beneficial and win-win situation.At the same time, some Suggestions on future pension investment in infrastructure projects are put forward based on the successful cases abroad. Key Words:Pension;Infrastructure;Investment;Feasibility西华大学硕士学位论文 目 录 摘要 .............................................................................................................Ⅰ Abstract................................................................................................................ Ⅱ 1. 导论 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义...........................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景....................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义....................................................................................1 1.2 研究思路、方法及内容.......................................................................2 1.2.1 研究思路和内容........................................................................2 1.2.2 研究方法....................................................................................3 1.3 研究的创新与不足...............................................................................4 1.3.1 研究的创新点............................................................................4 1.3.2 研究的不足................................................................................4 2. 相关理论及文献综述 .................................................................................... 5 2.1 基础设施...............................................................................................5 2.2 国外文献综述.......................................................................................5 2.3 国内文献综述.......................................................................................6 3. 国内现状及相关问题分析 ............................................................................ 7 3.1 我国养老金投资的发展历程...............................................................7 3.2 我国养老金投资与 OECD 国家的对比..............................................8 3.3 我国养老金投资现状.........................................................................10 3.4 养老金投资基础设施项目工具比较.................................................12 3.5 养老金投资基础设施项目存在问题分析.........................................13 3.5.1 政府工作方面..........................................................................13 3.5.2 基础设施市场方面..................................................................14 3.5.3 养老金方面..............................................................................14 4. 养老基金投资基础设施的可行性分析 ...................................................... 16 4.1 可行性相关理论分析.........................................................................16 4.1.1 养老金与基础设施项目投资特征的匹配度高......................16 4.1.2 养老金与基础设施项目供求的吻合度高..............................17 4.1.3 基础设施项目市场的开放度和成熟度提高..........................18 4.1.4 后危机时代养老金更注重 ESG 的投资理念 ........................18 4.1.5 基础设施项目在养老金投资组合中绩效显著......................19 4.2 相关流程.............................................................................................20西华大学硕士学位论文 4.2.1 基础设施项目的生命周期......................................................20 4.2.2 养老金投资基础设施的决策评估过程..................................21 4.3 实证分析.............................................................................................23 4.3.1 投资组合模型构建..................................................................23 4.3.2 数据的来源及处理..................................................................25 4.3.3 投资组合优化的实证结果及分析..........................................27 4.4 主要风险.............................................................................................29 4.5 风险管理.............................................................................................30 5. 养老基金投资基础设施的国际经验 .......................................................... 32 5.1 澳大利亚的实践探索——基础设施基金.........................................32 5.2 加拿大的实践探索——直接投资.....................................................33 6. 养老金投资基础设施项目的经验总结及建议 .......................................... 36 6.1 驱动养老金投资基础设施项目的主要因素.....................................36 6.2 养老金投资基础设施项目面临的主要障碍.....................................36 6.3 未来养老金投资基础设施的 SWOT 分析 .......................................38 6.4 促进养老基金投资基础设施的政策建议.........................................38