自上世纪九十年代以来，全国房地产行业得到快速发展，每年完成的产值占 国民生产总值的比重不断增加，带动了相关产业的发展，为国民经济的发展做出 了重要贡献。从 2005 年末开始，在国家宏观经济环境的影响下，社会游资及国外 资本不断涌入房地产行业，因在市场准入、土地供给、金融政策、法律规范等方 面管理缺位，造成房价的强势攀升，使国内房地产投资性需求和投机性需求大量 增加，未来的房地产市场的风险及不确定因素不断加大。国家为此从金融、信贷、 土地等各个方面加强政策执行力度，不断出台调控政策来控制房地产市场的过热 现象。 深圳市作为国家最早的经济特区，通过近三十年的发展，市场经济较为发达， 社会购买力强劲，因房地产业的快速发展，06 年房地产价格涨幅位居全国前列， 作为调控重点的一线城市备受关注。国家出台的调控政策，同样对深圳房地产市 场的未来走势，产生重大影响。 深圳满京华投资集团是一家以房地产开发为主业，物业投资、汽车经营为辅 的已成立 10 年的大型投资集团公司。从 05 年起涉足房地产行业，在 07 年初开始 启动的“满京华大厦”办公房地产项目，准备用两年时间开发完毕，也是该企业 开发的第一个办公地产项目，在管理经验及市场把握上，尚显不足。 因此，在国家不断加大宏观调控力度、原材料价格上涨、市场竞争加剧、管 理难度大等因素，都使“满京华大厦”的开发存在极大的风险和不确定性。所以， 本报告将通过系统研究揭示项目开发过程中引发风险的因素，就投资本项目提出 相应的观点，并应用现有的项目投资理论及分析方法，说明“满京华大厦”项目 投资可行性，为开发投资类似项目提供借鉴。此外，因该项目属于企业开发项目， 本报告着重从经济分析角度对其可行性加以研究论证，最后得出项目可行的结论。 关键词：满京华大厦；房地产；可行性分析III Abstract Since the 1990s, The country's real estate industry has developed rapidly. The annual output value of real estate for the proportion of gross national product is increasing, and the real estate led to development of relevant industries, has made important contributions to the development of the national economy. From the beginning of the end of 2005, As the impact of state macro-economic environment, social floating capital and foreign capital are constant influx to real estate industry. Because of market access, land supply and financial policies, laws and regulations, and other aspects of management vacancy, causing the price a strong increase, domestic investment in real estate demand and speculative demand a substantial increase and in the future of the real estate market risks and uncertainties continue to increase. So the state have begun to strengthen policy implementation from the financial, credit, land and other aspects, and have continuously introduced regulation and control policies to control the overheated real estate market. Shenzhen, Chinese special economic zones, has developed a strong market economy and the purchasing power of the community through nearly 30 years of reforming and opening-up policy. Due to the rapid development of the real estate industry, in 2006 the growth rate of house price in Shenzhen ranked the forefront of the country. However, due to a series of policies issued by the central government, Shenzhen also faced a lot of uncertainties of real estate industry. The Manjinghua investment group is a large investment company, locating in Shenzhen, mainly concentrated on the real estate, property managment, the GM vehicle 4S store. In 2007 the Manjinghua Building began to operate, which is planned to complete in two years. However, this project is the first development of the business office. Therefore, on the one hand, the state has continuously increased macro-control; On the other hand, because of rising raw material prices, intensified market competition, difficult to manage, the Manjinghua Building is in the development of the great risks and uncertainties. Therefore, this paper will be revealed through a systematic study on the project triggered in the process of developing risk factors that corresponding measures and preventive measures and application of existing investment theory and analysis methods that over the capital building projectIV investment feasibility of concluding summed up the project of work procedures and methods that the development and investment in similar projects for reference. Key Words: Manjinghua Building; Real estate; Feasibility analysisV 目 录 摘要........................................................................................................................II ABSTRACT............................................................................................................. III 插图索引................................................................................................................. VII 附表索引................................................................................................................VIII 第 1 章 绪 论 ..........................................................................................................1 1.1“满京华大厦”项目的提出 ............................................................................. 1 1.1.1 选题背景及其意义 .................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 深圳满京华投资集团基本状况 ................................................................. 2 1.2 文献综述 .......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 项目可行性分析的理论............................................................................. 2 1.2.2 项目经济可行性分析方法......................................................................... 4 1.3 本报告的结构及思路 ....................................................................................... 6 第 2 章 项目开发的投资环境分析.............................................................................7 2.1 自然环境 .......................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 区域位置 .................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 自然条件分析 ............................................................................................ 7 2.2 政策环境 .......................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 政策回顾 .................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 政策影响 .................................................................................................. 10VI 2.3 经济环境 ........................................................................................................ 11 2.3.1 国民经济发展的需要 .............................................................................. 11 2.3.2 城市发展的现状 ...................................................................................... 12 2.4 市场环境 ........................................................................................................ 13 2.4.1 深圳写字楼市场分析 .............................................................................. 13 2.4.2 项目所在区域分析 .................................................................................. 15 第 3 章 开发项目基本定位与投资分析 ................................................................... 19 3.1 项目定位方案................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 写字楼客户定位 ...................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 写字楼档次定位 ...................................................................................... 20 3.2 项目投资的整体预算 ..................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 投资概况 .................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 投资估算 .................................................................................................. 21 3.3 项目资金筹措................................................................................................. 23 3.3.1 自有资金 .................................................................................................. 23 3.3.2 借贷资金 .................................................................................................. 24 3.3.3 资金使用计划 .......................................................................................... 24 第 4 章 项目投资收益分析......................................................................................26 4.1 市场需求预测................................................................................................. 26 4.1.1 需求分析 .................................................................................................. 26 4.1.2 需求预测 .................................................................................................. 27 4.2 产品定价及收益预测 ..................................................................................... 30VII 4.2.1 销售价格 .................................................................................................. 30 4.2.2 销售收入 .................................................................................................. 32 第 5 章 开发项目经济分析......................................................................................34 5.1 项目经济效益分析 ......................................................................................... 34 5.1.1 经济效益分析主要指标........................................................................... 34 5.1.2 经济效益分析 .......................................................................................... 34 5.2 经济可行性分析 ............................................................................................. 35 5.2.1 项目财务评价 .......................................................................................... 35 5.2.2 敏感性分析及其主要因素....................................................................... 36 5.2.3 敏感分析计算 .......................................................................................... 37 5.3 项目盈亏平衡分析 ......................................................................................... 37 5.3.1 项目盈亏平衡分析主要指标 ................................................................... 37 5.3.2 项目盈亏平衡分析及评价....................................................................... 38 5.4 项目经济分析结论 ......................................................................................... 38 结 论.......................................................................................................................39