可行性研究是在投资决策前,对拟投资项目进行全面的技术经济分析的科学方法和 工作程序。即通过一系列的调查研究,在市场调研、技术分析和对项目的资源条件等方 面进行分析研究的基础上,所进行的财务.经济.技术论证,旨在追求论证项目在技术 上的先进性与适用性;经济上的合理性和盈利性;对社会发展目标的作用及其与社会的 相互适应性,从而为投资决策提供可靠依据。 本文依据中国国家发改委发布的“建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第三版2006)”、 中国海洋石油总公司“石油天然气上游项目经济可行性研究报告编制方法”、中海油湛 江分公司岛B油田海域勘察及油藏地质分析后的相关数据,并据经济可行性论证的过 程所形成的数据,按照“四舍五入”的原则取整后,运用投资项目经济可行性研究的理 论与原理,对中海油湛江公司岛B油田旳经济可行性进行了全面而系统的论证和研究。 首先,运用项目经济技术可行研究的理论、原理与方法; 其次,以岛B油田建设方案、工程量估算等进行的投资估算为基础,结合原油产量 配产、以及与岛B油田建设开发等未来投入产出预期,综合考虑岛B油田的可能情况与 中海油公司总部关于海上油田开发建设的相关经济参数,进行了系统计算.论证; 再次,基于以上数据计算分析,形成了一系列该项目是否可行的经济评价指标: FNPV、FIRR、投资回收期、投资利润率、投资利税率等; 最后,在与中海油公司总部对油田项目经济评价指标对比后,提出了“岛B油田项 目”经济可行的决策建议,同时,在对项目可能存在的风险的论证基础上进一步提出了 规避这些风险的初步建议。 这对于中海油湛江分公司而言,是否开发投资岛B油田,应当说,是具有一定参 考意义的。 关键词:油田项目;经济评价;项目可行性研究 Abstract Feasibility study is the scientific method and working procedure of comprehensive technical and economic analysis to the quasi investment projects before the investment decision. Namely,it is a financial,economical and technical argumentation through a series of investigation and study, which in terms of analysis and study in market research, technical analysis and the project resource conditions. Feasibility study is a pursuit of demonstration projects in technology advanced and applicable; economic rationality and profitability; the meaning of social development goal and social mutual adaptability, thus it can provides reliable basis for investment decisions. According to the methods and parameters of economic evaluation for conslxuction projects (Third Edition 2006) issued by China's National Development and Reform Commission; preparation metiiod of economic feasibility study report on oil and gas upstream projects issued by China Offshore Oil Corporation; the data of sea exploration and observation and analysis of the reservoir geology of CNOOC Zhanjiang Branch Company B Island oilfield; the data of the economic feasibility demonstration, in accordance with the rounding-off method, this paper using the theory and principle of economic feasibility study for the investment projects,to achieve the comprehensive and systematic demonstration and research on economy feasibility of CNOOC Zhanjiang Branch Company B Island oilfield. Firstly, this paper utilizes the tiieories, principles and methods of the feasibility study on economic technology of the project; Secondly, this paper calculated and demonstrated systematically on the investment estimation of B Island oilfield construction scheme, engineering quantity estimation, this paper in combination of crude oil production proration, as well as the future input and output expected on B Island oilfield development and construction, considering the possibility conditions of B Island oilfield and related economic parameters on offshore oil field development and construction by CNOOC headquarters; Thirdly, based on the analysis on above data,this paper has a series of economic evaluation indicators for determination, such as: FNPV,FIRR, investment payback period,investment profit rate,investment profit and tax rate, etc; In the end, after the comparison with the oil field project economic evaluation index by CNOOC headquarters, this paper proposed economic and feasible decisive recommendations on ”B Island Oilfield Project. At the same time,this paper also put forward the preliminary suggestions on titie risk aversion based on the demonstration on the risks tiaat may exist in the project. This research has a certain reference value for CNOOC Zhanjiang Branch Company, which about whether to achieve the development and investment on B Island oilfield. Keywords: oilfield project; economic evaluation; project feasibility study in 目录 m 1 章 1 l. 1选题的目的 1 1. 2选题的意义 2 1. 3研究的思路与方法 3 第2章项目可行性研究理论原理 4 2. 1项目可行性研究及意义 4 2. 2项目可行研究的内容 5 2. 3项目可行性研究的阶段与方法 6 第3章岛B油田建设方案及投资估算 15 3. 1岛B项目建设方案 15 3. 2岛B项目投资估算 17 3. 3岛B项目总投资及资金筹措 22 第4章财务评价 22 4. 1财务评价的依据和原则 23 4. 2岛B项目评价参数 23 4. 3营业成本费用估算 26 4. 4营业收入、费用及利润 27 4. 5现金流量估算 27 4. 6财务指标计算与评价 27 第5章不确定性分析 31 5. 1不确定性分析及方法 31 5. 2盈亏平衡分析 32 5. 3敏感性分析 35 5. 4风险分析 38 第6章结论与建议 40 6. 1结论 40 IV 6. 2对岛B油田项目经济可行性的建议 谢辞....