基于对海上石油开发前景的看好，K 公司拟进入海上石油开发行业，为行业提供物 流供应服务，现准备投资海洋工程辅助船（船舶项目）。本商业计划书针对此项目进行 分析，以便为项目相关的合伙投资人充分提供充分的投资信息，为项目筹集启动资金； 同时，本商业计划书通过对各方面全面的分析，为项目做好前期策划准备。 K 公司的项目，是投资一艘中型石油平台辅助船，通过船舶租赁方式，进行运营。 本商业计划书在宏观环境、产品市场、产品特点、竞争环境、项目组织、投资回报以及 风险对策等方面，借助五力竞争性分析模型、SWOT 分析法以及财务净现值和内部收益 率分析法等等方法，全面对项目进行分析评估。 宏观环境分析显示，深海石油将成为满足未来石油需求增长重要来源，深海石油产 量将年均增长 10%以上。产品市场分析显示，为深海石油开发作配套服务的中型石油平 台供应船细分市场增长较缓慢，存在一定的需求，是一个比较好的市场机会。通过产品 对比分析，可以看到产品有较好的综合性和成本优势。项目借助五力竞争模型分析法和 SWOT 分析法，分析表明项目或有潜在进入者的威胁以及及较长产品开发周期导致的市 场变化影响，但市场竞争状况较平和；借助良好的市场供需机会，通过发挥本身丰富经 验和广泛业内关系的优势，通过优异的产品，项目的成功是完全可能的。财务投资回报 分析结果显示，项目不但有利可图，而且回报较好；财务敏感性分析显示，营业收入对 项目的收益影响，要比投资成本的影响大，也就说明项目运营期的市场工作要比项目开 发期的成本控制工作更显得重要。风险分析显示，本项目面临的多个风险均有切实可行 的办法应对，是可控的。 项目将通过独立的、由 K 公司及合伙投资人投资创立的专门项目公司运作。项目总 投资额中的 30%，需要以项目公司的股东投入的方式解决。经测算，项目折现累计回收 期约 4.27 年，5 年运营期的净现值大于 0，IRR 值（27%）高于 9.8%的加权平均资本成 本。项目有利可图，收益较高，基本无运营风险，因此，本计划书认为项目可行。 关键词，海工船舶；船舶运营；商业计划II ABSTRACT Looking to the further increasing of the offshore oil industy, K hope to enter this market by providing the logistics service. As the first step, K will invest on a Platform Supply Vessel Projet (“The Project”). The business plan is to provide all fully informations to the investment partners invided by K for the Project. The vessel of the Project is a medium size PSV. It would be operated in the market by chartering. The plan made a detailed analysis on the general environment, competitive environment, PSV shipping market, the PSV vessel, return on investment and risk of the project. Methods of analysis include Michael Porter's Five Forces model of competition analysis, SWOT analysis and NPV, IRR of financial analysis. Through the analysis, it shows that deep sea oil will be the important source in next further and will have over 10% increasing per annual in the coming year. It shows that the medium size PSV for the deep sea oil industy would be the good chance now as its increasing was slow in the past time. Through the contrast, vessel of the Project have the good performance and is a cost effective solution for the market. Through the competition analysis and SWOT analysis, the potential entrants and long project schedule will be the issues. However, the competitive environment is not too warm. The Project could be successful due to the good market chance, good relationship and experience of K and the cost efftive vessel for the market. Through the studies on the financial and the risk, it show that the return of the investment is good and risk could be avoided or controlled. The Project would be carried by the SPV invested by K and the investment partners and operated by K. Whole project will need USD13M, of which 30% of the Project cost will be settled by SPV’s owned capital injected by K and the other shareholders. Discounted Cumulative Payback Period of the Project is 4.27 years. For five year’s operation period, NPV>0 and IRR is 27% wich is much more better than the WACC (9.5%). It can be concluded that the Project is workable and would give all investors good profit. Key words: Offshore Vessel; Ship Operation; Business PlanIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 关于宏观经济环境、能源与石油需求................................................................... 2 1.2.2 关于海上石油开发设施、海上石油平台以及石油平台供应船市场................... 4 1.2.3 关于石油平台辅助船产品发展趋势....................................................................... 5 1.2.4 关于船舶产品制造与开发....................................................................................... 5 1.2.5 有关行业的竞争、企业的优劣势及项目的财务分析........................................... 6 1.3 研究目标和内容.............................................................................................................. 7 1.4 研究方法.......................................................................................................................... 7 第二章 项目概况......................................................................................................................8 2.1 市场机会说明.................................................................................................................. 8 2.2 项目及产品简介.............................................................................................................. 9 2.3 公司及背景简介.............................................................................................................. 9 2.3.1 业务范围................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 公司愿景................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.3 管理组织................................................................................................................. 10 2.4 主要客户群落................................................................................................................ 11 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 11 第三章 宏观环境分析............................................................................................................12 3.1 世界经济与能源需求.................................................................................................... 12 3.2 能源与石油需求............................................................................................................ 13 3.3 石油与海上石油............................................................................................................ 16 3.4 海上石油与深海石油.................................................................................................... 17 3.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 20 第四章 产品市场分析............................................................................................................21IV 4.1 海上石油开发开采设施的投资情况............................................................................ 21 4.2 海上石油平台和深海平台............................................................................................ 22 4.3 中大型海上石油平台供应船市场................................................................................ 24 4.4 中型海上石油平台供应船市场情况............................................................................ 27 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 27 第五章 产品及特点................................................................................................................29 5.1 船舶项目的产品开发.................................................................................................... 29 5.1.1 产品开发市场情况................................................................................................. 29 5.1.2 本项目产品开发模式............................................................................................. 29 5.1.3 本项目产品开发优势............................................................................................. 29 5.2 船舶项目的产品及市场同类产品对比........................................................................ 30 5.3 船舶项目的产品优势.................................................................................................... 32 5.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 32 第六章 竞争性和优劣势分析................................................................................................34 6.1 竞争性分析.................................................................................................................... 34 6.1.1 新进入者的威胁..................................................................................................... 34 6.1.2 供应商讨价还价的能力......................................................................................... 35 6.1.3 买方讨价还价的能力............................................................................................. 35 6.1.4 替代品的威胁......................................................................................................... 35 6.1.5 当前竞争对手分析................................................................................................. 35 6.1.6 五力竞争模型......................................................................................................... 36 6.2 优劣势分析.................................................................................................................... 36 6.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 37 第七章 项目的组织及运作计划............................................................................................39 7.1 项目的管理模式............................................................................................................ 39 7.2 项目的组织结构............................................................................................................ 39 7.3 项目的合作团队............................................................................................................ 40 7.4 项目的开发计划............................................................................................................ 41 7.5 项目的销售方案............................................................................................................ 42 7.5.1 产品推广................................................................................................................. 42V 7.5.2 销售定价策略......................................................................................................... 42 7.5.3 销售渠道................................................................................................................. 42 7.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 42 第八章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................43 8.1 融资计划........................................................................................................................ 43 8.2 成本费用分析及净现金测算........................................................................................ 44 8.2.1 分析测算的相关说明............................................................................................. 44 8.2.2 项目运营期五年的成本费用预测......................................................................... 45 8.2.3 经营性净现金预测................................................................................................. 46 8.3 投资回报分析................................................................................................................ 46 8.3.1 资本成本的确定..................................................................................................... 46 8.3.2 累计折现回收期..................................................................................................... 46 8.3.3 净现值（NPV）..................................................................................................... 47 8.3.4 内含报酬率（IRR） .............................................................................................. 47 8.4 财务敏感性分析............................................................................................................ 47 8.5 资本的退出.................................................................................................................... 48 8.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 48 第九章 风险及对策................................................................................................................50 9.1 技术风险及对策............................................................................................................ 50 9.2 管理风险及对策............................................................................................................ 50 9.3 市场风险及对策............................................................................................................ 51 9.4 财务风险及对策............................................................................................................ 52 9.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 53 结 论......................................................................................................................................54