项目投资是企业发展的重大决策，这种选择和决策，无论是扩大再生产还是 开拓新市场，都将对企业发展起着关键性作用。房地产项目投资决策分析是房地 产企业管理中最重要的决策，对企业的盈利能力、资金结构、偿债能力以及长远 发展都有着直接影响。随着我国市场经济的快速发展，市场竞争越来越激烈，投 资主体和投资渠道趋于多元化发展态势，如何有效利用和优化配置资源，提高投 资决策水平，成为当前房地产开发企业经营发展中的突出问题。因此，能否做出 正确的项目投资决策是房地产企业经营发展的关键。 房地产开发具有的投资大、周期长、地域性强、易受国家政策法规影响的特 点，使得房地产投资活动充满风险和不确定性，房地产企业作出投资决策前必须 对拟建项目的可行性进行系统的分析和论证，为企业决策提供科学依据。房地产 开发项目可行性研究决定了一个开发项目是否应该投资，以及提供如何投资取得 最佳效益的方案。一个好的可行性研究报告应该能评估开发项目的潜在风险和收 益，评价经济社会效益，预测项目的成功率以及是否能给企业带来期望的收益。 本文借助可行性研究这一理论工具，选择笔者实际工作中的一个现实案例， 对天元置业公司拟建设的 XR 房产开发项日进行可行性分析，试图将 MBA 所学 理论知识与实际联系起来进行研究论证。本文属于应用型报告，综合运用了定性 分析和定量分析相结合、宏观分析和微观分析相结合、静态分析和动态分析相结 合等论证方法，重点分析了 XR 开发项目的市场可行性、财务可行性和不确定性。 同时，侧重对项目的外部环境，项目区域市场状况，项目本身优劣势进行深入分 析。并在此基础上，预测项目经济上是否合理，财务上是否盈利，风险上是否可 控，最后得出项目的可行性结论，以期能够对 XR 项目的可行性做出不同角度的 分析，为天元置业公司的项目投资决策提供参考依据，同时也为其他房地产企业 的经营管理，特别是开发类似项目的投资决策提供一种借鉴方法。 关键词，决策；可行性研究；房地产项目；市场分析；财务评价III Abstract Project investment is a major decisions in the development of enterprises, this choice and decision, expand and develop new market, will play a key role to the enterprise development. Real estate project investment decision analysis is one of the most important decision of real estate enterprise management, to enterprise’s profit ability, capital structure, solvency, and the long-term development has a direct impact. With the rapid development of market economy in our country, the market competition is increasingly fierce, the investment subject and investment channels tend to be diversified development trend, how to effectively use and optimizing the allocation of resources, improve the level of investment decision, the current outstanding problems in the development of real estate development enterprises. Therefore, can make the right investment decision-making is the key to the development of real estate enterprises. Real estate development has the huge investment, long cycle, strong regional, characteristics of the influence of national policies and regulations, make real estate investment activity full of risks and uncertainties, the real estate enterprises to make investment decisions before must be conducted on the feasibility of the proposed project systems analysis and demonstration, which will provide a scientific basis for business decisions. Real estate development project feasibility study determines whether it should be a development project investment, and how to get the best benefit of investment plan. A good feasibility study report should be able to assess the potential risks and benefits of development project, the evaluation of economic and social benefits, can predict whether the project success rate and brings to the enterprise earnings expectations. With the tools of feasibility study of this theory, this paper choose the actual work of a real case, Tian-yuan real estate company of construction of XR real estate development, feasibility analysis, trying to link the MBA learning theoretical knowledge and practical study. This article belongs to applied papers, the integrated use of the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combination of macro and micro analysis, static analysis and dynamic analysis combined with demonstration method, analyzed XR development project feasibility, financial feasibility and uncertainty of the market. At the same time, focus on the externalIV environment of the project, the project area market conditions, in-depth analysis of the advantages and disadvantages in the project itself. And on this basis, forecasting project is reasonable in economy, whether financially profitable, whether the risk control, finally the feasibility of the project conclusions, in order to make a different point of view the feasibility of XR project analysis, project investment decision-making for Tian-yuan real estate company to provide the reference basis, as well as other operation and management of real estate enterprises, especially the development of similar projects provide a reference method of investment decision. Key Words: Decision making; The feasibility study; Real estate project; Market analysis; Financial evaluationV 目 录 摘要....................................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................II 插图索引..........................................................................................................................................VII 附表索引.........................................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 导 论..................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景............................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义............................................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 .............................................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ..................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ..................................................................................................... 4 1.3 研究内容及方法 .............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 研究内容............................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 研究方法............................................................................................................... 7 1.4 研究可能存在的创新与不足 ...................................................................................... 8 1.4.1 创新之处............................................................................................................... 8 1.4.2 不足之处............................................................................................................... 8 第二章 房地产开发项目可行性研究的理论基础分析...................................................9 2.1 房地产开发项目可行性研究的概念及特点.......................................................... 9 2.1.1 房地产开发项目可行性研究的概念 .......................................................... 9 2.1.2 房地产开发项目可行性研究的特点 .......................................................... 9 2.2 房地产开发项目可行性研究的相关理论 ............................................................ 11 2.2.1 房地产开发项目评价的相关理论 ............................................................. 11 2.2.2 房地产开发项目财务评价的相关理论.................................................... 12 2.2.3 房地产开发项目不确定性分析理论 ........................................................ 12 2.3 房地产开发项目可行性研究的工作内容 ............................................................ 13 2.3.1 房地产开发项目可行性研究的阶段划分............................................... 13 2.3.2 房地产开发项目可行性研究的基本内容............................................... 13 2.3.3 房地产开发项目可行性研究的步骤 ........................................................ 15VI 2.4 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 16 第三章 天元置业公司XR房地产开发项目概况及市场调查分析.....................................17 3.1 XR 房地产开发项目概括分析 .................................................................................. 17 3.1.1 XR 房地产开发项目简介 .............................................................................. 17 3.1.2 项目建设背景和建设必要性....................................................................... 18 3.1.3 项目建设内容、规模及预期目标 ............................................................. 20 3.1.4 项目建设期及主要经济技术指标 ............................................................. 20 3.2 投资环境分析................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.1 经济环境............................................................................................................. 22 3.2.2 政策环境............................................................................................................. 23 3.2.3 区域环境............................................................................................................. 24 3.3 市场竞争环境分析 ....................................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 我国房地产市场分析..................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 湘潭房地产市场分析..................................................................................... 26 3.4 客户群分析...................................................................................................................... 28 3.4.1 客户群的购买能力分析 ................................................................................ 28 3.4.2 客户群消费动机分析..................................................................................... 29 3.5 市场需求预测................................................................................................................. 30 3.5.1 湘潭市房地产市场预测 ................................................................................ 30 3.5.2 XR 房地产项目市场需求预测..................................................................... 31 3.6 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 32 第四章 SWOT 分析和项目定位............................................................................................33 4.1 项目 SWOT 分析 ........................................................................................................... 33 4.1.1 优势分析............................................................................................................. 33 4.1.2 劣势分析............................................................................................................. 34 4.1.3 机会分析............................................................................................................. 34 4.1.4 威胁分析............................................................................................................. 35 4.2 项目定位分析................................................................................................................. 35 4.2.1 项目客户定位 ................................................................................................... 35 4.2.2 项目产品定位 ................................................................................................... 36 4.2.3 产品价格定位 .................................................................................................... 38 4.3 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 40 第五章 XR 房地产项目经济效益及不确定性分析........................................................41VII 5.1 XR 房地产项目的投资估算和资金筹措 ............................................................... 41 5.1.1 XR 房地产项目的投资估算.......................................................................... 41 5.1.2 XR 房地产项目的资金筹措.......................................................................... 43 5.2 XR 房地产项目财务评价............................................................................................ 44 5.2.1 销售收入及费用估算..................................................................................... 45 5.2.2 利润分析............................................................................................................. 47 5.2.3 财务分析............................................................................................................. 48 5.3 不确定性分析................................................................................................................. 50 5.3.1 敏感性分析 ........................................................................................................ 50 5.3.2 盈亏平衡分析 ................................................................................................... 52 5.4 XR 房地产项目风险防范分析 .................................................................................. 52 5.4.1 政策风险防范分析.......................................................................................... 52 5.4.2 市场风险防范分析.......................................................................................... 53 5.4.3 经营管理风险防范分析 ................................................................................ 53 5.4.4 金融财务风险防范分析 ................................................................................ 53 5.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................... 54 第六章 结论与建议....................................................................................................................55 6.1 主要结论 .......................................................................................................................... 55 6.2 对策建议 .......................................................................................................................... 56