WD 公司通过市场调研，发现电网输电、变电、配电（以下简称输变配）运维服务 市场潜力巨大，因此决定应用物联网、AR（增强现实）、3S（遥感（RS）、全球定位系 统（GPS）、地理信息系统（GIS））等技术，打造输变配运维服务项目。但该项目还需 要融资，希望通过本商业计划书的研究，让投资者了解项目的建设内容、建设规划、产 品特色、市场前景、运营管理，并通过对财务指标现金流、净现值、投资回收期、内部 报酬率等进行分析，对项目的效益进行评价，通过单因素、多因素敏感性分析方法实现 对项目风险的识别和定量分析，并针对风险提出防范措施。 本文首先对研究的背景进行了阐述，并说明研究的意义，梳理并总结了商业计划书 编制方面和输变配运维服务方面的研究现状，在此基础上提出了本文研究内容与方法； 其次对项目研究的主要内容和规划进行了描述，对产品需求进行分析并对产品功能进行 设计；第三，对行业前景进行分析，运用市场营销分析法对电力行业输配变运维服务市 场进行细分，根据市场细分结果，选择需要进入的目标市场，并对客户定位、产品设计、 产品定价进行分析，以此来实现对市场的定位；第四，根据国家政策法规、行业政策来 确定项目总体运营方案，确定输变配运维服务为本项目主营业务；第五，运用财务管理 知识对项目收入、成本进行预测，通过对项目现金流、投资回收期、报酬率等指标进行 估算与分析，对项目财务决策指标进行评价；最后通过敏感性分析，实现项目风险从定 性到定量的分析，并提出风险规避措施。 通过本商业计划书的研究得出，1、本项目具备较好的基础，WD 公司具有丰富的 项目经验和技术储备，技术上先进可行，优势大于劣势，机会大于挑战。2、项目的主 要市场定位在国家电网、南方电网输变配运维服务上；对项目运营初期所需人员进行配 置，根据人员配置情况计算出人员工资福利方案，为后续项目支出预测提供基础数据。 3、输变配运维服务项目初期投资为 1490 万元，前 10 年的 NPV 为 4140.89 万元；项目 的动态回收期为 4.42 年，小于公司要求的回收期（6 年）；项目前 10 年的 IRR 为 39.45%， MIRR 为 26.50%，高于本项目要求的必要报酬率（10.00%），是值得投资的项目。4、经 过单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性分析发现，项目存在一定的风险，可通过一定的措 施来规避风险，人工成本上涨风险方面，控制公司人工总成本，在保证人员薪水不低于 行业平均水平的前提下，挖掘员工的潜力、创造力和工作热情，是公司管理层需要重点 关注的工作，将人工总成本的上升幅度控制在 10%以内控制项目的风险。市场销售费用II 上升风险方面，通过加强项目销售费用的管理，重视销售费用预算、制定合理的控制标 准、控制企业销售费用的无限增长、加强审核、创新销售模式来规避销售费用风险。 关键词，输变配运维；商业模式；商业计划书III ABSTRACT Through market research, WD Company has found that there is a huge market potential for power transmission and distribution (transmission, transformation, distribution, hereinafter referred to as transmission and distribution) operation and maintenance data services, so decided to use Internet of Things, AR (augmented reality), 3S (remote sensing (RS), global positioning system (GPS), geographic information system (GIS) and other technologies to create transmission. Variable distribution operation and maintenance service platform project. However, the project still needs financing. It is hoped that through the study of this business plan, investors can understand the construction content, construction planning, product characteristics, market prospects, operation and management of the project, and evaluate the benefits of the project through the analysis of financial indicators, and put forward preventive measures against the risks through the sensitivity analysis of the project risks. Shi. Firstly, this paper expounds the background of the study, and explains the significance of the study, combs and summarizes the research status of business plan preparation and transportation, distribution, operation and maintenance services, and on this basis puts forward the research content and methods of this paper; secondly, it describes the main content and planning of the project research, and products. Needs are analyzed and product functions are designed. Thirdly, the industry prospects are analyzed, and the power industry information market is subdivided by using the marketing analysis method (STP). According to the results of market segmentation, the target market that needs to be entered is selected, and customer positioning, product design and product pricing are analyzed. Fourth, according to the national policies and regulations, industry policies to determine the overall operation plan of the project, determine the main business of the project, and determine the organizational structure of the project, the division of responsibilities, management team and staffing and salary plan; fifth, the use of financial management knowledge. Knowing the project income, cost forecast, through the project cash flow, investment payback period, rate of return and other indicators, the project financial decision-making indicators are evaluated; finally, through sensitivity analysis, the project risk from qualitative to quantitative analysis, and put forward risk aversion measures. Through the study of this business plan, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. This project has a good foundation, WD company has rich project experience and technical reserves, advanced and feasible technology, advantages outweigh disadvantages, opportunities outweigh challenges. 2. The main market position of the project is on the data service ofIV transmission, transformation, distribution, operation and maintenance of the State Grid and the South China Grid; the personnel needed in the initial stage of the project operation are allocated, and the personnel salary and welfare scheme is calculated according to the personnel allocation situation, which provides basic data for the follow-up project expenditure forecast. 3. The initial investment of the project is 14.9 million yuan, and the NPV of the first 10 years is 41.48 million yuan; the dynamic payback period of the project is 4.42 years, which is less than the payback period required by the company (6 years); the IRR of the first 10 years of the project is 39.45%, and the MIRR is 26.50%, which is higher than the necessary rate of return required by the project (10.00%).4. Through the single factor sensitivity analysis and multi-factor sensitivity analysis, it is found that there are certain risks in the project, which can be avoided by certain measures: on the risk of labor cost rising, the total labor cost of the company can be controlled, and the potential and creation of the staff can be tapped under the premise that the salary of the staff is not lower than the average level of the industry. Strength and enthusiasm are the key tasks that the company management should pay attention to, and control the risk of the project within 10% of the total cost of labor. In terms of the risk of rising marketing expenses, we should strengthen the management of project sales expenses, attach importance to the budget of sales expenses, formulate reasonable control standards, control the unlimited growth of enterprise sales expenses, strengthen audit, and innovate the sales mode to avoid the risk of sales expenses. Keywords: Transmission and distribution operation and maintenance；Business models； Business planV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................... III 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究内容与方法 ............................................................................................................. 5 第二章 项目主要内容..............................................................................................................9 2.1 项目发起单位 WD 公司技术背景................................................................................. 9 2.2 项目规划和研发计划 ................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 项目规划................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 研发计划................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 产品需求分析 ............................................................................................................... 12 2.3.1 输电线路运维需求分析........................................................................................ 12 2.3.2 变电站运维需求分析............................................................................................ 13 2.3.3 配电房运维需求分析............................................................................................ 14 2.4 产品主要功能设计 ....................................................................................................... 14 2.4.1 AR-GIS 应用........................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 单兵作业应用........................................................................................................ 15 2.4.3 高精度定位............................................................................................................ 15 2.4.4 基于 AR 技术的巡检知识培训 ............................................................................ 15 2.4.5 设备识别................................................................................................................ 15 2.4.6 地下电缆可视化巡视............................................................................................ 15 2.4.7 输电线路交叉跨越巡视........................................................................................ 16 2.4.8 历史隐患信息查询................................................................................................ 16 2.4.9 输电线路防外力破坏应用.................................................................................... 16 2.4.10 在线监测数据集成.............................................................................................. 16 2.5 产品特色分析 ............................................................................................................... 16 2.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 18VI 第三章 行业分析与市场定位................................................................................................20 3.1 行业前景分析 ............................................................................................................... 20 3.2 行业竞争环境分析 ....................................................................................................... 21 3.3 细分市场分析 ............................................................................................................... 23 3.4 目标市场选择 ............................................................................................................... 24 3.5 市场定位 ....................................................................................................................... 25 3.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 26 第四章 项目的运营管理与组织计划....................................................................................27 4.1 总体运营方案 ............................................................................................................... 27 4.2 主要运营的业务 ........................................................................................................... 28 4.2.1 输电线路运维数据服务业务................................................................................ 28 4.2.2 变电站运维数据服务业务.................................................................................... 28 4.2.3 配电网络运维数据服务业务................................................................................ 29 4.3 组织管理计划 ............................................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 组织结构................................................................................................................ 29 4.3.2 职责分工................................................................................................................ 30 4.3.3 管理团队................................................................................................................ 32 4.3.4 人员配置及薪酬.................................................................................................... 32 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 33 第五章 项目的投资计划与效益评价....................................................................................34 5.1 项目投资计划 ............................................................................................................... 34 5.2 项目收入预测 ............................................................................................................... 35 5.3 项目成本预测 ............................................................................................................... 37 5.4 销售费用预测 ............................................................................................................... 38 5.5 管理费用预测 ............................................................................................................... 39 5.6 项目效益评价 ............................................................................................................... 40 5.6.1 现金流和净现值估算与分析................................................................................ 40 5.6.2 投资回收期估算与分析........................................................................................ 42 5.6.3 内部报酬率估算与分析........................................................................................ 43 5.7 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 43VII 第六章 项目风险定量分析及其对策....................................................................................44 6.1 单因素敏感性分析 ....................................................................................................... 44 6.2 多因素敏感性分析 ....................................................................................................... 44 6.3 针对项目风险的对策 ................................................................................................... 46 6.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 47 结 论........................................................................................................................................49