ZH 工业集团是中国现唯一的军方及民用航空飞机制造企业，其通过市场调查发现 ZS 地区的通用航空服务市场潜力巨大，希望利用自身产品体系优势开通通用航空短途 运输服务，发起该项目去先行先试挖掘当地通用航空服务市场。项目除自身投资外，还 计划融资，希望通过本商业计划书的研究，让投资者了解项目如何实施，通过计算该项 目的投资决策指标，告诉投资者项目确实是值得投资的，并为项目融资，用于飞机的购 置和航空业务的运营。 本文首先阐述项目的主要内容，并分析国外通用航空发展的成功案例；其次阐述项 目运营的支撑条件和航线规划，并运用市场营销理论进行市场细分，确定目标市场以及 市场定位；然后研究项目的运营管理，阐述项目总体运营方案，剖析项目主要运营的业 务，并确定项目的组织管理计划；最后运用财务管理知识分析项目的融资计划和项目运 营财务计划，对项目财务决策指标进行评价，并对项目进行风险定量分析，提出规避风 险的相应对策。 通过本商业计划书的研究表明，1、本项目运营具备相应的支撑条件，同时可借鉴 国外通用航空发展的成功经验来实施，优势大于劣势，机会大于挑战。2、项目的主要 市场定位在通用航空客运、货运运输服务上；通过对项目运营初期的人员配置及薪酬做 计划，为项目费用估计提供依据。3、列出项目总投资额为 180 亿元，计算出前 10 年的 净现金流，得出前 10 年的 NPV 为 332,876.25 万元，远大于 0；项目前 10 年的 IRR 为 19.54%，MIRR 为 13.09%，高于本项目要求的必要报酬率 11.26%；项目的动态回收期 为 8.12 年，投资回收期相对较短，经济效益十分显著，是值得投资的项目。4、经过项 目风险定量分析发现，项目还存在一定的风险，但风险较小，可通过一定的措施来规避 风险，陆地客运机票平均单价、陆地客运机客运量和航油价格的变动是引起风险的最主 要因素，可尽量将陆地客运机票降价幅度控制在 6.9%以内，预测未来陆地客运销售量 不变甚至增加到 0.78%时，才进行降价策略；通过提前预备航油存货和制定长期航油期 货交易计划，控制航油价格上涨幅度不超过 9.7%，或提高陆地客运机票价格来防范和 规避项目风险，尽量保证项目可以达到预期的投资收益。 经过本商业计划书的研究，为项目作客观的财务评价，为项目的融资提供决策参考， 希望能吸收所期望的行业进行投资，以达到多赢的目标。 关键词，通用航空服务，航线运营，商业计划书II ABSTRACT ZH Industry Corporation is the only Chinese military and civil aviation aircraft manufacturing enterprise, through market research, found that aviation service market has great potential in ZS region, hoped to use its own product system advantages open short-haul general aviation service, initiated this project to first try to tap the local general aviation service market. In addition to its own investment project, but also plans to finance. ZH Industry Corpration hope that through this business plan research for investors to understand this project how to implement, by calculating the project investment decision-making to told investors that it’s a worthwhile investment project, for project financing, for the purchase of aircraft and aviation operation. This paper first describes the main content of the project and analyzes the success cases of foreign general aviation development; secondly describes the supporting contisions and route planning of project operation; uses the marketing theory to subdivide the market, determines the target market and market positioning; thirdly researches project operational management, describes the overall operational plan of the project, analyzes of the main operating business and to determine the organizational management plan for the project; lastly uses the financial management knowledge analysis project financing plan and operation plan, evaluates the financial decision-making index of the project,through the project risk quantitative analysis to put forward the corresponding countermeasures to avoid risks. Through the study of this business plan to show that: 1、This project operation has the corresponding support conditions, can learn from the successful experience of foreign general aviation development to implement,the advantage is greater than the inferiority and the opportunity is bigger than the challenge.2、The main market positioning of the project in general aviation passenger and freight transport services,through the initial operation of the project staffing and pay plan so as to provide the basis for project cost estimation.3、The total investment of the project is RMB 18 billion, calculates the net cash flow for the first 10 years,the NPV of the first 10 years is RMB 3328.7625 million and which is much larger than 0;the IRR of the first 10 years is 19.54% and MIRR is 13.09%, higher than the necessary return rate 11.26%; the dynamic payback period is 8.12 years, it’s relatively short and economic benefits are very significant , the project is worth the investment. 4、After the risk quantitative analysis finds thatthere are some risks in the projcet, but the risk is small and can through certain measures to avoid risks:the land passenger airfare,land passenger traffic and the price of aviation fuel are the main cause of the risk factors, as far as possible landIII passenger ticket price control in less than 6.9%, forecast the future land passenger sales unchanged or even increased to 0.78% can discount; through the advance preparation of jet fuel inventory and the formulation of long-term fuel oil futures trading program to control of fuel oil prices rose by no more than 9.7%, or increase land passenger ticket prices to prevent and avoid project risks so that as far as possible to ensure that the project can achieve the desired investment income. Through the research of this business plan for the project to do an objective financial evaluation, so as to provide reference for decision-making of project financing, hope to absorb the desired industry to invest, in order to achieve win-win goal. Keywords: General Aviation Service; AirlineOperation; Business PlanIV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单...............................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书编制方面............................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 通用航空方面........................................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究方法与主要内容 ..................................................................................................... 4 第二章 项目的主要内容与国外成功案例借鉴......................................................................7 2.1 项目发起单位 ZH 工业集团的实力 ............................................................................... 7 2.2 项目的主要内容和规划 ................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 项目的主要内容....................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 项目的规划............................................................................................................... 9 2.3 国外成功案例的借鉴 ................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 陆地通用航空案例.................................................................................................. 10 2.3.2 水上通用航空案例................................................................................................. 11 2.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 12 第三章 项目运营的支撑条件和航线规划............................................................................13 3.1 ZS 项目运营的支撑条件............................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 ZS 项目所在地区的经济条件 ................................................................................ 13 3.1.2 ZS 项目所在地区的空域条件 ................................................................................ 14 3.1.3 ZS 项目所在地的通用机场条件 ............................................................................ 15 3.1.4 ZS 项目所在地的市场容量条件 ............................................................................ 17 3.2 ZS 项目的航线规划....................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 飞机配备规划.......................................................................................................... 18V 3.2.2 航班飞行规划......................................................................................................... 20 3.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 20 第四章 SWOT 分析和项目市场分析定位...........................................................................21 4.1 SWOT 分析 .................................................................................................................... 21 4.1.1 优势分析.................................................................................................................. 21 4.1.2 劣势分析.................................................................................................................. 22 4.1.3 机会分析.................................................................................................................. 23 4.1.4 威胁分析.................................................................................................................. 23 4.2 国内市场现状 ............................................................................................................... 23 4.3 市场分析 ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.1 细分市场................................................................................................................. 27 4.3.2 目标市场的选择..................................................................................................... 28 4.3.3 市场定位................................................................................................................. 30 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 31 第五章 项目的运营管理........................................................................................................32 5.1 总体运营方案 ............................................................................................................... 32 5.2 主要运营的业务 ........................................................................................................... 32 5.2.1 通航运输和飞机托管 ................................................................................................. 33 5.2.2 通勤任务执行和娱乐观光飞行.............................................................................. 33 5.2.3 公务飞行和私人飞行.............................................................................................. 34 5.3 组织管理计划 ................................................................................................................ 34 5.3.1 组织结构.................................................................................................................. 34 5.3.2 职责分工.................................................................................................................. 35 5.3.3 管理团队.................................................................................................................. 36 5.3.4 人员的配置及薪酬.................................................................................................. 37 5.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 38 第六章 项目的融资计划和运营财务计划............................................................................39 6.1 必要的说明 .................................................................................................................... 39 6.2 投融资计划与退出方式 ................................................................................................ 40 6.2.1 投资计划.................................................................................................................. 40VI 6.2.2 融资计划.................................................................................................................. 41 6.2.3 退出方式.................................................................................................................. 42 6.3 项目经营预测 ................................................................................................................ 43 6.3.1 收入预测................................................................................................................. 44 6.3.2 主营业务成本预测................................................................................................. 46 6.3.3 营业税金及附加预测............................................................................................. 47 6.3.4 销售费用预测......................................................................................................... 49 6.3.5 管理费用预测......................................................................................................... 50 6.3.6 财务费用预测......................................................................................................... 52 6.4 财务指标分析 ................................................................................................................ 53 6.4.1 盈利能力分析.......................................................................................................... 53 6.4.2 营运能力分析.......................................................................................................... 54 6.4.3 偿债能力分析.......................................................................................................... 54 6.4.4 发展能力分析.......................................................................................................... 55 6.5 项目效益评价 ............................................................................................................... 56 6.5.1 项目资本成本的确定.............................................................................................. 56 6.5.2 项目的现金流和净现值估计.................................................................................. 56 6.5.3 项目的投资回收期.................................................................................................. 58 6.5.4 项目的内部报酬率.................................................................................................. 59 6.5.5 项目的修正内部报酬率.......................................................................................... 59 6.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 60 第七章 项目风险的定量分析及其对策................................................................................61 7.1 单因素敏感性分析 ........................................................................................................ 61 7.2 多因素敏感性分析 ........................................................................................................ 61 7.3 针对项目风险的对策 .................................................................................................... 63 7.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 64 结 论......................................................................................................................................65