我国的房地产业发展自 90 年代初至今已近 30 年，经过几十年的高速发展，住房短 缺时代已经过去，人们的居住需求大部分得到了满足，在货币超发、各行业实体经济下 行、土地财政等因素的影响下，房地产的金融性越来越明显，住房越来越多作为投资产 品，加上前几年的调控政策限制了房价的合理增长压制了刚性需求，多种因素造成 2015 至 2017 年房价快速上涨，对社会和经济稳定造成了压力。政府采取了各种调控政策， 在我国人大会议上对房子的基本属性给出了具体定义，指出住房要以住为基础，不能作 为商品来炒作。房地产调控将是长期的。作为房地产开发企业，认为房地产行业仍有较 大的市场，还是有前景的，在调控期机会与风险并存，特别是在投资拓展和经营管理方 面，需更为谨慎认真。本商业计划书，是以三江荟项目作为投资目标，从多个维度进行 分析，对项目的投资决策和实施提供参考。第一章绪论；第二章项目概况；第三章投资 环境分析，从全国到地方的政策、项目的区位、交通、周边配套及规划等方面进行分析； 第四章市场分析及项目定位，从项目所在城市的土地市场、住宅市场、商业市场、竞争 产品等方面进行分析，再通过项目 SWOT 分析对项目进行定位，最后确定总图方案； 第五章开发计划与营销策略，包括销售计划、开发节奏、分期计划、开发周期计划、营 销推广策略；第六章财务分析，包括成本测算、销售收入估算、利润测算、盈亏平衡点 和敏感性分析；第七章风险分析。通过商业计划书的研究，最终评估三江荟项目是值得 投资的。 关键词，房地产；市场分析；产品定位；投资决策II Abstract China's real estate industry has been developing for nearly 30 years since the early 1990s. After decades of rapid development, the era of housing shortage has passed and most of people's housing needs have been satisfied. Under the influence of excessive money, economic downturn in various real industries as well as the land finance, the financial nature of real estate is becoming more and more obvious. Meanwhile, the rigid demand has been suppressed because of more and more housing as an investment product, coupled with the control policies of previous years to limit the reasonable growth of housing prices. Multiple factors contributed to the rapid rise in housing prices between 2015 and 2017, resulting in pressure on social and economic stability. A variety of regulatory policies has adopted by the government, the report of the 19th National Congress, especially, pointed out that the house is for living, not for speculation, with the requirement of housing to return to its residential property. Real estate regulation will be long-term. The real estate development enterprise believes that there is still a large market and prospects in the real estate industry. Opportunities and risks coexist during the regulation period, especially in terms of investment expansion and management, which need to be more cautious and serious. Analyzed from multiple dimensions, this business plan is based on the Sanjiang hui project as the investment goal to provide a reference for the investment decision-making and implementation of the project. Respectively, chapter one is an introduction and Chapter two is a project overview. The investment environment is analyzed in chapter three, from national to local policies, project location, transportation, peripheral support and planning. Chapter four is Market analysis and project positioning, from the land market, residential market, commercial market, competitive products and other aspects of the city where the project is located, and then through SWOT analysis of the project positioning, and finally determine the general plan; Chapter five is development plan and marketing strategy, including sales plan, development rhythm, points Chapter six is Financial analysis, including cost estimation, sales revenue estimation, profit estimation, break-even point and sensitivity analysis; The last chapter is risk analysis. Through the study of the business plan, the final evaluation of the Sanjiang Hui project is worth investing. Key words: Real estate Market analysis Product positioning Investment decisionIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ............................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 国内研究现状........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 国外研究现状........................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究目标、研究内容及拟解决的关键问题 ................................................................. 3 1.3.1 研究目标................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 研究内容................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 研究方法及技术路线 ..................................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 研究方法................................................................................................................... 4 1.4.2 技术路线................................................................................................................... 4 第二章 项目概况...................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 项目区位 ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 项目位置及交通 ............................................................................................................. 6 2.3 项目周边配套及规划 ..................................................................................................... 7 2.4 项目指标 ......................................................................................................................... 7 2.5 项目四至情况 ................................................................................................................. 8 2.6 项目综合评价 ................................................................................................................. 8 2.7 小结 ................................................................................................................................. 9 第三章 投资环境分析............................................................................................................ 10 3.1 全国性投资环境 ........................................................................................................... 10 3.1.1 政策环境................................................................................................................. 10 3.1.2 国民经济整体情况..................................................................................................11 3.1.3 固定资产投资......................................................................................................... 12 3.1.4 通货膨胀................................................................................................................. 14 3.1.5 消费需求................................................................................................................. 14IV 3.2 区域性投资环境 ........................................................................................................... 16 3.2.1 城市主要经济指标................................................................................................. 16 3.2.2 城市发展格局......................................................................................................... 18 3.2.3 城市产业规划......................................................................................................... 19 3.2.4 城市规划配套......................................................................................................... 19 3.2.5 城市相关政策......................................................................................................... 21 3.3 小结 ................................................................................................................................ 24 第四章 市场分析及项目定位.........................................................................................25 4.1 城市土地市场分析 ....................................................................................................... 25 4.2 住宅市场分析 ............................................................................................................... 27 4.3 商业市场分析 ............................................................................................................... 30 4.4 竞品分析 ....................................................................................................................... 31 4.5 项目 SWOT 分析及发展战略........................................................................................ 33 4.5.1 项目 SWOT 分析 ..................................................................................................... 33 项目总体定位 ............................................................................................................... 33 4.5.1 目标客户群............................................................................................................. 34 4.5.2 项目形象定位......................................................................................................... 34 产品定位 ....................................................................................................................... 34 4.6.1 住宅商品定位......................................................................................................... 34 4.6.2 商铺定位................................................................................................................. 35 4.6.3 产品方案及配比 .................................................................................................... 35 小结 ............................................................................................................................... 36 第五章 开发运营与营销策略................................................................................................ 37 5.1 销售计划 ....................................................................................................................... 37 5.2 开发建设计划及运营保障思路 ................................................................................... 38 5.2.1 开发建设计划......................................................................................................... 38 5.2.2 运营保障思路......................................................................................................... 39 5.3 营销策略 ....................................................................................................................... 40 5.3.1 产品策略................................................................................................................. 40 5.3.2 价格策略................................................................................................................. 41 4.6 4.7 4.8V 5.3.3 渠道策略................................................................................................................. 44 5.3.4 促销策略................................................................................................................. 46 5.4 管理架构及人才管理 ................................................................................................... 48 5.4.1 管理架构................................................................................................................. 48 5.4.2 人才管理................................................................................................................. 49 5.5 小结 ............................................................................................................................... 50 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................ 51 6.1 经济指标表 ................................................................................................................... 51 6.1.1 地块一经济指标表................................................................................................. 51 6.1.2 地块二经济指标表................................................................................................. 51 6.2 测算条件 ....................................................................................................................... 52 6.3 建安成本估算 ............................................................................................................... 53 6.4 项目成本估算 ............................................................................................................... 54 6.5 销售收入预测 ............................................................................................................... 55 6.5.1 地块一去化与收入................................................................................................. 55 6.5.2 地块二去化与收入................................................................................................. 56 6.6 融资成本 ....................................................................................................................... 56 6.6.1 融资成本的计算..................................................................................................... 57 6.6.2 项目融资情况......................................................................................................... 57 6.7 现金流测算 ................................................................................................................... 58 6.7.1 现金流量表定义..................................................................................................... 58 6.7.2 项目现金流量......................................................................................................... 58 6.8 利润测算与自有资金收益率测算 ............................................................................... 59 6.8.1 项目净利润率......................................................................................................... 59 6.8.2 年化收益率（ROE） .............................................................................................. 60 6.8.3 全投资内部收益率（IRR）.................................................................................... 60 6.8.4 自有资金收益率（IRR）........................................................................................ 60 6.8.5 项目效益................................................................................................................. 60 6.9 小结 ............................................................................................................................... 61 第七章 项目风险分析............................................................................................................ 63VI 7.1 敏感性分析 ................................................................................................................... 63 7.1.1 敏感性分析的作用................................................................................................. 63 7.1.2 敏感性分析的方法................................................................................................. 63 7.1.3 项目敏感性分析..................................................................................................... 63 7.2 风险应对方法 ............................................................................................................... 68 7.3 政策性风险分析及策略 ............................................................................................... 68 7.3.1 国家层面政策分析及策略..................................................................................... 68 7.3.2 佛山市政策分析及策略......................................................................................... 69 7.4 市场风险分析及策略 ................................................................................................... 70 7.5 经营风险分析及策略 ................................................................................................... 70 7.6 成本上涨风险分析及策略 ........................................................................................... 71 7.7 小结 ............................................................................................................................... 72 结 论........................................................................................................................................ 73