近几年来,随着国际能源市场投资热情的不断高涨,无论是地方政府还是国 内!外企业都将能源化工行业作为首要的进军领域但是,能源化工行业不同于 一般行业,能源化工项目的建设,不仅关系到资金!技术!市场等普通项目建设 的必要因素,更与国家产业行业!能源资源!环境保护等方面的政策密不可分 能源化工项目的建设,必须充分寻求市场和政策二者的统一 项目的可行性研究是编制设计任务书的重要依据,也是进行初步设计和工程 建设管理工作中的重要环节通过可行性研究对拟议中的项目进行系统分析和全 面论证,判断项目是否可行,值得投资同时寻求最佳建设方案,避免项目方案 的多变造成的人力!物力损失 本文以战略管理!工程投资项目分析和投资经济学等知识为基础,从项目背 景!项目的必要性!项目所在地社会经济及能源化工产业发展现状!产品市场的 预测与分析!项目的建设环境!项目的建设规划方案!项目投资的财务评价和国 民经济评价等各个方面来全面分析论证项目建设的可行性具体内容包括:结合 榆横能源开发建设有限公司的实际,兼顾国家能源战略规划,统筹榆林能源化工 基地建设总体规划和榆横煤化学工业区总体规划,在合理和充分发挥当地资源优 势的基础上,认真分析了陕西省!榆林市经济和能源化工产业发展现状,阐述了 榆林能源化工基地的发展目标和框架体系,对项目的必要性进行了分析,重点对 产品的市场环境!项目的建设环境和投资分析进行了阐述,得出了在榆横煤化学 工业区内建设年产30万吨聚氯乙烯项目能够充分利用当地盐!煤!电石和电资源, 采用先进技术,同时符合国家煤化工产业政策报告还对项目进行了评价和风险 分析,得到项目可行的结论项目建成以后,将进一步完善榆林能源化工基地的 产业结构,延长产业链条,促进上下游及周边产业的发展,对榆林地区的经济发 展起到较大的推动作用 本文的研究为公司的长远发展做好理论分析,确保项目建设的成功同时也西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告第n页 为同类项目的可行性研究提供了一定的借鉴 刘澎司:聚氯乙霭页目;刚于幽干究 矛西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告第In页 Abstraet WiththeincreasedattentionPaidtotheinvestmentaetivitiesgcttinghotterinthe internationalenergymarket,loealgoven卫nentsandcomPaniesinandoutofChinaall PlaeeenergyandchemicalindustryastheirfirstPrioritytoinvest.However,energyand chemiealindustry15difl七rentfromotherfields.Theconstruetionofenergyand chemiealProject15relatednotonlytotheneeessaryfaetors,suchaseapital,teehnology andmarketwhieharethoseeommonProjeets,butalsoreliesheavelyon govemment,5PoliciesforindustrydeveloPmeni,Proteetionofenergyresoureesand reservationofenvironment.ToseeurethesuccessofenergyandehemiealProjects, marketandgovemmentPoliciesmustbetakeniniothoroughlyeonsiderationand balancetwosides. AsanimPortantresearchbasisforthemakingofdesigntastrePort,Projeet feasibilitystudy15alsoanimPortantstePforinitialdesignandmanagementofany industrialconstructionProjeets.AftersystematiealanalysisandstudyfromallasPeets totheProPosaledProjeetinthefeasibilityresearchstudy,theeonelusionoffeasibility andinvestmentdecisionmakingadviceeanbedrawn,andatthesametime,thebest PlanfortheProjeeteanbemadetoavoidtheunnessarywasteofHRandc叩italdueto theeonstantchangingofProjeetPlan. TOstudythefeasibilityofthePVCProjeetofYuhengEnergyDeveloPmeni ConstructionCo.,Ltd.,the industryin finallCCalld Yulin,Shanxi PresentdeveloPmentsituationofenergyandchemieal Provinee,themarket,theenviomment,Plan,investment nationaleconomieevaluationarefullydiseussedinthisrePortbasedon theoriesofstrategymanagement,ProjeetinvestmentProjeetanalysisandinvestment economies.ThisrePortstudiestherealityofyuhengEnergyDeveloPmentConstruction Co.,Ltd.withthenationalenergystrategyProgram,energyandchemiealbase construetionPrograminYulinandPlanningof!恤hengCoalChemicalIndustrialZone, also,thePresentdeveloPmentsituationoftheeconomy,energyandehemiealindustry ofYulinandShaxiProvineeareanalyZedinthisrePorttostudyhowtoreasonablyand 7西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告第IV页 fullymakegooduseofloealresources.Inaddition,thisartieleintroducesthe develoPmentgoalandsysternframeworkofYulinEnergyaridChemicalBase.By focusingonanalyZingthemarketenvironrnentoftheProduets,eonstruetion environmentoftheProjectandinvestment,thisarticledrawstheconelusionthatthe constructionofthis0.3million一tonPVCProjeetin丫UhengCoalChemiealhidustrial Zonecanfullyuse10ealresoureesofsalt,coal,ealelumearbideandelectrieityby emPlo如ngadvancedteehnology,andatthesametime,itcomPlieswiththenational Polieiesforeoalandehemiealindustry.ThesueeessoftheProject15goingtoimProve theindustrials加etureofEnergyandChemicalBaseinYulin,toextendtheindustrial chainandPromotethedevelopmentoftheuPstream,downstreamandrelevant industries,andthusitwillaceeleratetheeeonomygrowthinYulin. ThisrePortgivestheoryanalysisbasisforthelongtenndeveloPmentofthe eomPanytosecurethesuccessofProjeet,andit15alsousefulrefereneeforthose similarfeasibilityresearches. Kevwords:PVCProjeet,feasibilitystudy 夕西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告第V页 目录 第1章绪论 1.1问题提出的背景...................................................................................,..................2 1.2问题研究的意义...........................,...........................................................................3 1.3本项目概况......,...........,......................................................................................4 1.4主要研究内容及思路...................................................................,............................5 -U 第2章项目必要性分析, 2.1榆林市产业发展的需要 2.2落实中央!省有关政策的需要......................................................................................6 2.3充分发挥资源优势的需要.....................:..................................................................7 2.4发展循环经济的需要......................................................................................................7 2.5满足市场需求,发挥地区优势的需要.............................................................,......9 第3章项目所在地社会经济及能源化工产业现状分析. 3.1陕西省社会经济及能源化工产业现状分析................................................................11 3.1,1陕西省社会经济现状分析.................................................................................11 3.1.2陕西省能源化工产业现状分析........................................................................12 3.2榆林市社会经济及能源化工产业现状分析................................................................13 3.2.1榆林市社会经济现状分析 3.2.2榆林市能源化工产业发展现状分析 第4章产品市场分析及预测...... l3 14 4.1产品性质及用途...........................................................................................................巧 4.2烧碱的市场分析.............................,.............................,...................................16 4.2.1烧碱国外市场分析..............................................................,........................16 4.2.2烧碱国内市场分析.............................................................................................18 4.3聚氯乙烯(PVC)的市场分析....................................................................................23 4.3.1PVC国外市场分析.....................................-................................................23 4.3.2PVC国内市场分析............................................................................................26 4.4产品市场价格分析及竞争力分析................................................................................32 4.4.1产品市场价格分析............................................................................................32 4.4.2竞争力分析.........................................................................................................犯 第5章项目建设的环境分析二,..................................34 5.1建厂条件................................................................,.......................................34 5.2产业政策.......................................................................................................................36 5.2.1产业结构政策.....................................................................................................36 5.2.2产业组织政策........................................,......................................................41 5.2.3产业技术政策.......................................................................................43 5.2.4产业规划布局.........................................................,.............................,.43 5.3资源条件.......................................................................................................................45 之西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告第Vl页 5.3.1资源条件现状.....................................................................................................45 5.3.2资源供应的安全性分析............!....!!!..................................47 5.3.3资源利用方案....................................................................................................48 5.3.4原料!燃料及公用工程消耗水平.....................................................................49 5,4生态环境影响分析.,............................................49 5.4.1建设地区环境现状二,..............................................49 5.4.2项目的主要污染物..........................,...............#49 5.4.3治理措施...........................................................................................................50 第6章项目的建设方案.........................................52 6.1建设规模.......................................................................................................................52 6.2工厂组织及定员....................................................................#一53 6.3资金筹措......................................................................................................................54 6.3.1投资估算的范围.............................................54 6.3.2投资估算的依据.,..........................................,54 6.3.3投资估算.....................................................................................................#......54 6.3.4资金来源........................................................................................................54 6.4项目实施规划.........................................................................#..#.........#.55 第7章项目评价及风险分析................................57 7.1项目的社会评价................................................................................#57 7.1.1社会评价的适用范围.........,................................#57 7.1.2社会评价的内容...............................................................58 7.1.3本项目社会评价及结果.....................................................................................59 7.2项目的财务评价..................................,.............................#.#.#60 7.2.1财务评价的步骤....................,..............一61 7.2.2本项目财务评价及结果...........,...............................................................61 7.3项目的国民经济评价..................................................63 7.4项目投资风险分析..................................................,.#,!!#!65 7.4.1盈亏平衡分析......................................................65 7.4.2敏感性分析.........................................................................................................65 7.5投资分析结果.....................................................................................#./ 7.6附表.............................................................................................................................../ 结论........................................................70 致谢........................................................72