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基于自由现金流量法的企业价值评估-以SHQL公司为例_MBA毕业论文

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受制于IPO审核政策的变化影响,近些年上市公司的并购重组逐渐成为资本 市场的一个热点。市场涌现了大量经营规范、符合资本市场条件的标的公司。根 据现行法律法规,上市公司进行并购重组时需对被并购方价值进行评估。因此, 建立科学的企业价值评估体系、选择合理的评估方法和评估模型具有重要意义。 论文回顾了企业价值评估的理论和方法,分析了成本法、市场法、收益法三 类企业价值评估方法的优缺点和使用条件,研究了我国汽车及零部件行业的发展 状况及行业特征,分析了汽车及零部件行业价值评估方法及模型选择的优劣,提 出将自由现金流量折现模型作为企业价值评估的重要方法。论文以SHQL公司为案 例,采用自由现金流量折现模型对SHQL公司财务状况和企业价值进行了分析和测 评。 论文根据新能源汽车零部件行业的特性,重点研究收益法中的自由现金流量 折现模型,研究结果表明,自由现金流量折现模型能有效反映资产的价值创造力, 具备适用性和科学合理性。 关 键 词,新能源汽车,现金流量,财务分析,评估价值 论文类型,案例分析浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 基于自由现金流量法的企业价值评估--以 SHQL 公司为例 III EVALUATION OF ENTERPRISE VALUE BASED ON FREE CASH FLOW METHOD -- TAKE SHQL COMPANYASAN EXAMPLE ABSTRACT In recent years, M&A and restructuring of listed companies have become a hot spot in the capital market controlled by the IPO verification system policy. A large number of standard operating companies have emerged in the market. In accordance with the current laws and regulations, the value of the listed company shall be evaluated if it conducts merger and reorganization. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish a scientific enterprise value evaluation system and choose a reasonable evaluation method and model. The article reviews the enterprise value assessment theory and method, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the three main methods of enterprise value evaluation and condition, the cost method, market method and earnings method, studies the development of automobile and parts industry in our country and industry characteristics, analyzes the automobile and parts industry value evaluation method and model selection, proposes the discounted free cash flow model as an important method of enterprise value evaluation. The article analyzes and evaluates the financial status and enterprise value of SHQL Company by using free cash flow discount model. According to the characteristics of the new energy auto parts industry, the article focuses on the free cash flow discount model in the income method. The study finds that the free cash flow discount model is very good to verify the applicability and scientific rationality of the model. The research results show that the free cash flow discount model can reflect the value creativity of assets effectively, and has applicability and scientific rationality. KEYWORDS,New energy vehicle; Cash flow; Financial analysis;Assessed value TYPE OF DISSERTATION / THESIS: Case study浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 基于自由现金流量法的企业价值评估--以 SHQL 公司为例 V 目 录 1 绪论.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题的背景和意义............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究的背景................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义....................................................................................................1 1.2 研究内容与研究方法........................................................................................2 1.2.1 研究内容....................................................................................................2 1.2.2 研究方法....................................................................................................2 2 企业价值评估的理论与方法.................................................................. 3 2.1 企业价值评估的理论........................................................................................3 2.1.1 企业价值的概念........................................................................................3 2.1.2 企业价值评估的含义................................................................................3 2.1.3 我国汽车零部件行业价值评估方法及模型选择....................................3 2.2 文献综述............................................................................................................5 2.2.1 国外对企业价值评估的研究成果............................................................5 2.2.2 国内对企业价值评估的研究成果............................................................ 6 2.2.3 文献综述评价............................................................................................8 3 行业企业价值评估研究.......................................................................... 9 3.1 行业的发展状况................................................................................................9 3.1.1 汽车及零部件行业的整体发展状况........................................................9 3.1.2 汽车零部件行业的市场供应情况及市场格局...................................... 10 3.1.3 新能源汽车的发展状况.......................................................................... 10 3.2 汽车零部件行业的特征...................................................................................11 3.2.1 周期性.......................................................................................................11 3.2.2 区域性...................................................................................................... 12 3.2.3 季节性...................................................................................................... 12 3.3 汽车零部件行业的发展趋势.......................................................................... 12 3.4 自由现金流量折现模型作为本文重点研究和使用的合理性...................... 13 4.目标企业简介....................................................................................... 15 4.1 SHQL 公司基本情况......................................................................................... 15 4.2 SHQL 公司的核心竞争力................................................................................. 15 4.2.1 较强的产品研发能力.............................................................................. 15 4.2.2 健全完善的客户营销网络体系和优质的客户资源.............................. 16 4.2.3 与客户形成协同开发优势...................................................................... 16浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 基于自由现金流量法的企业价值评估--以 SHQL 公司为例 VI 4.2.4 产品线丰富,更具组合竞争力.............................................................. 16 4.2.5 专用设备开发能力强.............................................................................. 17 4.3 SHQL 公司的财务状况..................................................................................... 17 4.3.1 偿债能力.................................................................................................. 17 4.3.2 营运能力.................................................................................................. 18 4.3.3 盈利能力.................................................................................................. 18 4.3.4 发展能力.................................................................................................. 19 5 SHQL 企业价值评估............................................................................... 21 5.1 评估思路及模型选择...................................................................................... 21 5.2 自由现金流量的预测...................................................................................... 21 5.2.1 营业收入的预测...................................................................................... 21 5.2.2 营业成本的预测...................................................................................... 24 5.2.3 税金及附加的预测.................................................................................. 28 5.2.4 期间费用的预测...................................................................................... 29 5.2.5 折旧及摊销的预测.................................................................................. 35 5.2.6 追加资本性支出的预测.......................................................................... 36 5.2.7 营运资金的预测...................................................................................... 36 5.2.8 自由现金流量的预测.............................................................................. 38 5.3 折现率的预测.................................................................................................. 39 5.3.1 折现率计算模型...................................................................................... 39 5.3.2 模型中有关参数的计算过程.................................................................. 39 5.4 评估结论.......................................................................................................... 43 5.4.1 自由现金流量价值的计算...................................................................... 43 5.4.2 非经营性资产(负债)、溢余资产价值.................................................. 44 5.4.3 付息债务价值.......................................................................................... 44 5.4.4 评估预测结论.......................................................................................... 45 5.4.5 预测结论的验证...................................................................................... 45 6 结论与展望............................................................................................ 45 6.1 研究结论.......................................................................................................... 45 6.2 研究局限.......................................................................................................... 47 6.2.1 不确定因素影响及缺乏创新性.............................................................. 45 6.2.2 参考值的预测存在主观性......................................................................47 6.2.3 动态评估模型需完善.............................................................................. 48 6.3 研究展望.......................................................................................................... 46 6.3.1 选择准确的预测参数方式...................................................................... 46浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 基于自由现金流量法的企业价值评估--以 SHQL 公司为例 VII 6.3.2 建立动态分析模型.................................................................................. 46 6.3.3 加强核心参数预测.................................................................................. 46