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2020年基于模糊推理的公交人员绩效考核方案研究_硕士论文

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对于当下的大多数企业来说,无论是何种性质的企业,绩效考核对于企业发展来说 都是不容忽视的一环,而不同企业间绩效考核的差异性则大致体现在两个方面,其中第 一点是所采用的绩效考核评价指标之间存在的异同,其二是绩效方法制定上的区别。虽 然现在市场绩效考核的评价方法如雨后春笋般层出不穷,但是实际上并没有出现一种广 为鉴用的定性指标评价法,主观意识在绩效考核评价指标中依然占据主导地位。但是个 人思想上的主观能动性很容易造成绩效考核评价结果的不准确,从而致使绩效考核失去 意义。为了尽量降低主观能动性在绩效考核中的影响,本文引入了模糊推理的方法,并 对其用智能优化算法进行优化,从而有效避免早熟收敛。 本文以大庆西区公交公司的“公交运行数字化管理系统”的实际工程项目作为背景, 通过对几种经济学中的绩效考核方法进行的对比分析后,采用 KPI 关键绩效指标考核法 作为本文经济学的背景。同时,针对目前使用较为广泛、取得成果较多、研究的较为深 入的三种模糊系统进行了比较,因 T-S 模糊模型具有独特优势,其后件是前件的线性组 合且可以任意精度逼近任意非线性函数,本文最终决定采用 T-S 模糊系统作为大庆西区 公交公司绩效考核系统的基本建模模型,并依据其对绩效考核评价所依据的指标集和模 糊集进行相应的设计与实现。 T-S 模糊模型的构建第一步是对公交人员实际存在的绩效考核问题和需要考核的部 门职能进行分析,确定绩效考核所依据的指标集,然后为每个指标设置模糊集,根据专 家经验构建模糊规则库,最后采用改进的粒子群优化算法确定模型中各参数,以使其逼 近标准样本中的复杂非线性输入输出关系。具体优化这些参数的基本思路是:将所有 N 个参数看做 N 维空间中的一个个点,构建模型输出端的误差函数,显然该函数是定义 在同一空间上的 N 元函数,N 维空间寻找一点使其对应的误差函数有全局最小值,此 时该点即为 T-S 模型参数的优化结果,参数确定后的 T-S 模型可直接用于绩效考核。 该运行数字化管理系统的开发主要依据大庆公交总公司的实际情况和需求,目前已 经投入使用。对公交公司的绩效考核评价方面起到了很大的帮助作用,同时在每天公交 人员的服务过程中,可以起到有效的监督和促进作用。 关键词:绩效考核,T-S 模糊系统,粒子群优化算法,参数优化东北石油大学工程硕士专业学位论文 III Research on the Performance Evaluation Scheme of Public Transport Personnel Based on Fuzzy Model ABSTRACT For most enterprises in the present life, no matter what the character of the enterprise, the performance evaluation is an important part which can not be ignored, meanwhile the differences between the performance evaluation of these enterprises are corresponding to the evaluation methods and indicators.Although in the current market,the performance evaluation methods were appeared such as like the bamboo shoots after a spring rain ,but in fact ,a widely used method in performance evaluation was not exist at all.The subjective consciousness is still dominant in the performance evaluationl.But we should consider that the personal subjective thoughts may result in the performance evaluation inaccuracy and make the performance evaluation results losing its actual meaning.In order to minimize the impact of performance evaluation, this paper bring the concept of fuzzy reasoning to the system, and use the intelligent optimization algorithm to avoid premature convergence effectively. This paper is based on the project of Bus-compony personnels performance evaluation management system.Under this actual engineering background,as well as using KPI (Key-Performance-Indicators) as the theoretical support of the whole performance evaluation system.At the same time, considering that based on the comparison of various fuzzy systems, T-S fuzzy system has the a unique advantage is that the latter is a linear combination of the antecedents.For this reason, this paper used T-S fuzzy system to build the performance evaluation basic model . According to the T-S fuzzy system and KPI method to set and implement the fuzzy rules and indicators. First of all, analyzing the bus personnels actual performance and the function of each department ,afterwards set the performance evaluation indicators ,then based on expert experience to build the fuzzy rules, and finally used improved particle swarm optimization algorithm determines the parameters in the model,make these parameters approximate the complex nonlinear input-output relationship in the standard sample. The basic idea of these parameters optimization is that :all the N parameters are regarded as a point in the N-dimensional space, and the error function of the output in the model is obviously defined as an N-ary function in the same space. So that the corresponding error function has a global minimum, this point is the T-S model parameters optimization results. Then the T-S model can be directly used for performance evaluation. The development of the Bus-compony personnal performance evaluation management system is based on the actual requirement and situation, and has been put into use. TheABSTRACT IV performance evaluation has played a great role in the bus compony,at the same time, as for the bus personnel service process, has played an effective supervision and promotion role. Keywords: performance evaluation, T-S fuzzy system, particle swarm optimization algorithm, parameters optimization东北石油大学工程硕士专业学位论文 目 录 学位论文独创性声明.................................................................................................................I 学位论文使用授权声明.............................................................................................................I 摘要........................................................................................................................................II ABSTRACT..............................................................................................................................III 第一章 绪 论...........................................................................................................................1 1.1 课题研究背景.................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的及意义................................................................................................................................ 1 1.3 国内外相关领域研究现状................................................................................................................2 1.3.1 绩效考核理论的国内外研究现状.........................................................................................2 1.3.2 模糊推理的国内外研究现状.................................................................................................4 1.4 研究内容............................................................................................................................................ 6 1.5 本章小结............................................................................................................................................ 7 第二章 绩效考核理论基础研究...............................................................................................8 2.1 引 言................................................................................................................................................ 8 2.2 绩效考核概念.................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 绩效考核原则.........................................................................................................................8 2.2.2 绩效考核流程.........................................................................................................................9 2.3 绩效考核方法..................................................................................................................................10 2.3.1 目标管理绩效考核法...........................................................................................................10 2.3.2 平衡记分卡绩效考核法.......................................................................................................11 2.3.3 关键绩效指标考核法...........................................................................................................13 2.4 本章小结.......................................................................................................................................... 14 第三章 基于模糊系统的理论研究.........................................................................................15 3.1 引 言.............................................................................................................................................. 15 3.2 模糊系统.......................................................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 模糊系统概念.......................................................................................................................15 3.2.2 Mamdani 模糊系统................................................................................................................16 3.2.3 模糊关系模型.......................................................................................................................16 3.2.4 T-S 模糊系统..........................................................................................................................16 3.2.5 万能逼近定理.......................................................................................................................18 3.3 T-S 模糊系统参数的确定.................................................................................................................18 3.3.1 隶属度函数的分类...............................................................................................................18 3.3.2 隶属度函数的确定...............................................................................................................20 3.4 本章小结.......................................................................................................................................... 20目 录 第四章 改进的粒子群优化算法.............................................................................................21 4.1 引 言.............................................................................................................................................. 21 4.2 基本粒子群算法..............................................................................................................................21 4.3 粒子群优化的改进策略..................................................................................................................22 4.3.1 粒子群初始化.......................................................................................................................22 4.3.2 惯性因子的设计...................................................................................................................23 4.3.3 速度更新式的设计...............................................................................................................24 4.3.4 粒子位置的越界处理...........................................................................................................25 4.3.5 终止条件...............................................................................................................................25 4.3.6 改进 PSO 的算法流程..........................................................................................................25 4.4 仿真实验.......................................................................................................................................... 26 4.4.1 测试函数...............................................................................................................................26 4.4.2 参数设置...............................................................................................................................29 4.4.3 结果对比...............................................................................................................................29 4.5 本章小结.......................................................................................................................................... 35 第五章 基于 T-S 模糊系统的绩效考核方案设计及实现.....................................................36 5.1 引 言.............................................................................................................................................. 36 5.2 公交运行数字化管理系统..............................................................................................................36 5.2.1 目前考核方式及存在的问题...............................................................................................37 5.2.2 项目中的客户需求...............................................................................................................37 5.2.3 本文提出的解决方法...........................................................................................................38 5.2.4 具体的实施方案...................................................................................................................39 5.3 服务绩效考核方案的设计与仿真..................................................................................................40 5.3.1 服务考核指标集的制定.......................................................................................................40 5.3.2 构建服务考核模糊规则库...................................................................................................41 5.3.3 基于 IPSO 的模型参数优化................................................................................................ 42 5.3.4 模型参数设计.......................................................................................................................42 5.3.5 目标函数设置.......................................................................................................................44 5.4 燃料绩效考核方案的设计与仿真..................................................................................................46 5.4.1 燃料考核指标集的制定.......................................................................................................46 5.4.2 构建燃料考核模糊规则库...................................................................................................46 5.4.3 模型参数设置.......................................................................................................................47 5.4.4 目标函数设置.......................................................................................................................48 5.5 基于 IPSO 的考核指标权重优化................................................................................................... 49 5.6 绩效考核方案整体仿真测试..........................................................................................................50 5.6.1 现场数据资料准备...............................................................................................................50东北石油大学工程硕士专业学位论文 5.6.2 考核结果分析.......................................................................................................................51 5.6.3 基于模糊推理的公交人员绩效考核方案使用情况...........................................................53 5.7 本章小结.......................................................................................................................................... 53 结 论.......................................................................................................................................54