项目的投资可行性研究是企业投资管理活动中的十分重要环节。本文针对印度尼西 亚独特的投资环境对煤矿项目投资风险进行了分析研究，评估了风险对项目运作的影 响，并针对性地提出了防范对策。 报告首先介绍了 DBP 项目的基本情况，包括项目矿区的位置、物流和权证手续等， 介绍了项目投资意向和与当地投资者的合作方式。其次分析了印尼的投资环境，主要包 括印尼的政治、法律、经济、外交等情况和外来投资煤炭资源的情况。第三，对 DBP 项目进行了技术分析，分析了矿区储量、煤炭品质和开采条件。从煤炭埋藏条件来看， DBP 项目矿区适合露天大型抓钩机开采。第四，对 DBP 项目进行财务分析，分析了 DBP 项目的 FOB 成本、投资回报率、投资回收期、内部收益率及财务盈亏平衡点。第六， 评估 DBP 项目风险，包括项目的技术风险、经济风险和政治法律风险，提出了针对性 的风险防范对策，包括，1．通过继续勘探提高矿区储量的可信度，合理运用露天开采 技术以避免矿区开采时的地质风险。2．合理使用汇率工具尽可能减低印尼盾汇率变化 对成本造成的不理影响。3．主动行动，控制政治法律风险，尊重当地法律法规；实现 员工本土化；选择印尼的合作伙伴建立合资企业；本地融资。 关键词，印度尼西亚；煤炭投资；风险评估；风险规避II Abstract Investment feasibility study of the project is a very important link in the investment management activities of enterprises. Unique investment environment in Indonesia coal mine project investment risk analysis study to assess the risk of the operation of the project, and targeted preventive measures. This article first introduces the basic situation of the DBP project, including the location of the project site, logistics and warrants procedures, intention of project investment and with the cooperation of local investors. Then the paper assesses the investment environment in Indonesia, including Indonesia's political, legal, economic, and diplomatic and foreign investment in coal resources. Third, the DBP project technical analysis, analysis of mine reserves of coal quality and mining conditions. View from coal burial conditions, DBP project site is suitable for a large open-air grapple machine mining. Fourth, the DBP project financial analysis, DBP project FOB cost, ROI, payback period, internal rate of return and financial breakeven point. Sixth, assess DBP project risks, including the risk of the project's technical, economic risk and political and legal risks, proposed the targeted risk prevention countermeasures, including: 1, continue exploration to improve the credibility of the mine reserves, the rational use of open-pit mining techniques to avoid the risk of geological mining area. 2, rational use of the exchange rate tool to reduce as far as possible to ignore the impact caused by the rupiah exchange rate changes on the cost. Initiatives to control the political and legal risks: (1) respect local laws and regulations; (2) local employees; (3) select partners in Indonesia set up joint ventures; (4) financing locally. Keywords: Indonesia; Coal Investment; Risk Assessment; Risk AvoidanceIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究意义 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 项目投资风险理论.................................................................................................. 2 1.3.2 项目投资财务分析理论.......................................................................................... 3 1.4 研究内容与方法 ............................................................................................................. 5 1.4.1 研究内容.................................................................................................................. 5 1.4.2 研究方法.................................................................................................................. 5 第二章 印尼 DBP 煤矿项目的基本情况................................................................................7 2.1 项目基本情况 ................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 物流情况 ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 投资意向及合作模式 ..................................................................................................... 8 2.4 本章小结 ......................................................................................................................... 9 第三章 印尼 DBP 煤矿项目投资环境分析..........................................................................10 3.1 印尼政治、经济、法律情况 ....................................................................................... 10 3.1.1 印尼基本国情........................................................................................................ 10 3.1.2 政治制度................................................................................................................ 10 3.1.3 外交和经贸............................................................................................................ 11 3.1.4 煤炭战略................................................................................................................ 11 3.1.5 2009 年矿业法的影响............................................................................................ 11 3.2 外来投资煤炭资源情况 ............................................................................................... 13 3.3 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 14 第四章 项目开采技术可行性分析........................................................................................15 4.1 矿区自然地理概况 ....................................................................................................... 15 4.1.1 DBP 煤矿地理坐标 ................................................................................................ 15IV 4.1.2 自然地理................................................................................................................ 15 4.1.3 以往地质工作........................................................................................................ 15 4.2 勘探工作 ....................................................................................................................... 15 4.2.1 勘探方法................................................................................................................ 15 4.2.2 勘查工程及质量评述............................................................................................ 15 4.3 工作区地质 ................................................................................................................... 16 4.4 煤层 ............................................................................................................................... 17 4.4.1 含煤性.................................................................................................................... 17 4.4.2 可采煤层................................................................................................................ 17 4.5 煤质 ............................................................................................................................... 17 4.5.1 煤的物理性质........................................................................................................ 17 4.5.2 化学性质................................................................................................................ 17 4.5.3 煤的风化................................................................................................................ 17 4.5.4 煤层及工业用途评价............................................................................................ 18 4.6 水文地质 ....................................................................................................................... 18 4.6.1 勘查区水文地质条件............................................................................................ 18 4.6.2 充水因素分析........................................................................................................ 18 4.7 其他开采技术条件 ....................................................................................................... 19 4.8 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 19 第五章 DBP 煤矿项目财务可行性分析...............................................................................20 5.1 煤炭储量估算 ............................................................................................................... 20 5.1.1 煤层储量估算参数................................................................................................ 20 5.1.2 储量估算结果........................................................................................................ 20 5.2 市场情况分析预测 ....................................................................................................... 21 5.3 融资方案 ....................................................................................................................... 21 5.4 投资回报率测算 ........................................................................................................... 22 5.4.1 成本费用估算........................................................................................................ 22 5.4.2 敏感性分析............................................................................................................ 23 5.4.3 财务评价................................................................................................................ 23 5.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 24V 第六章 DBP 煤矿项目风险评估与风险控制.......................................................................25 6.1 技术风险 ....................................................................................................................... 25 6.1.1 煤炭质量................................................................................................................ 25 6.1.2 露天采矿................................................................................................................ 25 6.1.3 水文风险................................................................................................................ 26 6.1.4 物流风险................................................................................................................ 26 6.2 经济风险 ....................................................................................................................... 27 6.2.1 成本风险................................................................................................................ 27 6.2.2 市场风险................................................................................................................ 28 6.2.3 外汇风险................................................................................................................ 28 6.3 政治法律风险 ............................................................................................................... 28 6.4 风险防范对策 ............................................................................................................... 30 6.4.1 技术风险的控制与防范........................................................................................ 30 6.4.2 经济风险的控制与防范........................................................................................ 30 6.4.3 政治法律风险的控制与防范................................................................................ 31 6.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 33 结 论........................................................................................................................................35