随着我国城市化的进程不断加速，经济、社会、环境之间的矛盾日益尖锐， 在人口基数庞大、土地资源有限、生态环境脆弱的国内大型城市，建立生态良性 循环的人类居住模式，是实现当今城市发展的必然趋势。天津生态城的建设就是 这一趋势下的城市建设先行模板。根据《天津市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五 年规划纲要》中提出的要领，在房地产业的发展要求中，指出要“保持房地产开 发建设规模适度增长，提高房地产业发展水平。进一步完善分层次住房供应体系， 科学规划房地产开发空间布局，增加普通商品住房有效供给，鼓励发展省地节能 环保型住宅”。 本文针对天津某生态城开发建设老年公寓项目作了详尽的综合分析，首先通 过论述天津某生态城老年公寓项目开发的投资可行性，对拟建项目进行了市场宏 观环境分析，研究和确定市场定位、供需状况。其次为响应天津市十二个五年规 划纲要的要领，建设节能环保型住宅，本文又从建筑方案设计、节能设计、环境 影响分析等几方面融入了生态城区域打造的绿色环保建筑理念和生态科技。最后 本文通过对项目财务和投资估算进行详尽分析评价后，综合论证项目建设的必要 性，财务的盈利性，经济上的合理性，技术上的先进性和适应性以及建设条件的 可能性和可行性，从而为投资决策提供科学依据。 关键词，商品住宅、建筑节能、市场分析、投资评价 ABSTRACT As China's urbanization process has been accelerating, economy, society and environment more sharp contradiction between, the huge population base, land resources are limited, ecological environment fragile large domestic cities, establishing ecological virtuous circle of human living mode, which is the inevitable trend of the development of the city. Tianjin an eco-city construction is the trend of urban construction first template. According to the national economic and social development of Tianjin five year plan for 12, in which, he put forward the main point, the requirements of the development of real estate industry, points out that we should maintain the real estate development and construction size moderate growth, enhance the real estate industry development level. Further perfect hierarchically housing supply system, scientific planning and real estate development space layout, increase the ordinary commodity housing effective supply, encourage the development of energy conservation and environmental protection land-saving residence. In this paper the development of Tianjin an eco-city construction old apartment residential project a detailed comprehensive analysis, first through discussing the tianjin an old apartment residential area development investment feasibility for the proposed project the market macroscopic environment analysis, research and determine the market localization, the supply and demand situation. Secondly for response tianjin twelve five year plan for the main point, the construction energy conservation environmental protection house, this paper and from architectural plan design, energy saving design, environmental impact analysis from the aspects of the blended in an eco-city area build green architectural concept and the ecological science and technology. Finally this article through to the project finance and investment estimation in detail analysis and evaluation, comprehensive demonstration projects, the necessity of financial profitability, economic rationality, technical advancement and adaptability and construction conditions of the possibility and feasibility, so as to provide scientific basis for investment decision. Keywords: commodity residential house, building energy saving, market analysis, investment evaluation 目 录 第一章 绪论 ...............................................................................................................1 1.2 主要研究内容 .....................................................................................................2 1.3 报告结构安排 .....................................................................................................2 第二章 天津某生态城老年公寓项目市场分析.......................................................3 2.1 宏观经济环境分析 .............................................................................................3 2.2 天津市住宅市场分析 .........................................................................................5 2.3 滨海新区住宅市场分析 .....................................................................................8 2.4 本项目市场定位.............................................................................................. 11 2.5 项目市场前景分析 ...........................................................................................15 2.6 项目选址与用地分析 .......................................................................................15 2.7 项目建设条件 ...................................................................................................18 第三章 项目总体建设方案分析 ...............................................................................21 3.1 主要建设内容研究 ...........................................................................................21 3.2 总体规划方案 ...................................................................................................22 3.3 建筑工程 ...........................................................................................................24 3.4 消防 ...................................................................................................................27 第四章 节能方案 .......................................................................................................30 4.1 项目所在地能源需求及能源供应状况 ...........................................................30 4.2 项目能耗需求 ...................................................................................................30 4.3 节能措施 ...........................................................................................................30 第五章 项目环境影响分析 .....................................................................................35 5.1 施工期污染源分析 ...........................................................................................35 5.2 运营期污染源分析 ...........................................................................................35 第六章 项目进度与投资估算 .................................................................................38 6.1 项目建设周期 ...................................................................................................38 6.2 项目实施进度安排 ...........................................................................................38 6.3 投资估算分析 ...................................................................................................38 6.4 资金筹措与使用计划 .......................................................................................43 第七章 财务分析 .......................................................................................................44 7.1 财务基础参数的选取 .......................................................................................44 7.2 营业收入与税金..............................................................................................44 7.3 盈利能力分析 ...................................................................................................46 7.4 财务生存能力分析 ...........................................................................................49 7.5 不确定性分析 ...................................................................................................50 7.6 财务分析结论 ...................................................................................................52 第八章 结束语 .........................................................................................................53