当今世界经济快速发展，区域经济一体化已经成为世界经济发展过程中的主要趋 势，作为区域经济一体化的主要形式之一，自由贸易区受到了越来越多的国家的青睐， 主要是因为自贸区的多边贸易谈判相对而言具有时间短、见效快的特点，同时能最大 限度地利用本国的优势，规避全球化的风险，提高自贸区成员国的竞争优势。作为“金 砖四国”的中国和俄罗斯，中俄两国有着4300 多公里的陆地边界线，在世界经济的舞 台上同样扮演着举足轻重的角色，2010 年中俄双边贸易额为 570.5 亿美元，2011 年 12 月，俄罗斯成功地加入了世界贸易组织，结束了长达 18 年之久的入世长跑历程，为 发展两国的经贸活动开启了新的篇章。目前两国又同时处在经济转型期，在此背景下， 研究建立中俄自由贸易区的可行性具有重要的现实意义。 本文在研究建立中俄自由贸易区可行性的过程中，主要采用了理论与实证相结合 的方法，在对自贸区相关理论进行归纳总结的基础上，对建立中俄自贸区的必要性、 可行性及对策进行全面论述，其中重点对可行性进行分析，选择最小二乘的回归方程 分析法和相关贸易指数分析。在可行性分析的过程中，也考虑了影响建立两国自贸区 的主要因素并进行了分析总结，本文从多个方面对建立中俄自由贸易区进行深入研 究，全面分析与重点分析相结合，实现理论与实证的有机统一。 通过本文的研究，可以得到建立中俄自由贸易区是可行的这个结果，尽管中俄在 建立自贸区的过程中存在着许多阻碍因素，但中俄两国应本着积极的态度，在减免关 税等一系列问题上和平协商和在利益上做出一定程度的让步，两国应看到在经历过建 立自贸区的阵痛之后所带来的巨大的利益，两国应充分利用地缘、政治、资源互补等 优势，从共同的利益出发，面对挑战，克服障碍。建立中俄自贸区是一个长期的、复 杂的过程，需要两国共同努力，为两国开展深层次的经贸合作打下坚实的基础。 关键词，中俄，自由贸易区，互补性，可行性II Feasibility Study of Sino-Russian FTA Abstract In today's world of rapid economic development, regional economic integration has become the world's major economic trends in the development process. As one of the main forms of the regional economic integration, the free trade area (FTA) has been favored by more and more countries due to the short negotiation time, quick results and maximal utilization of the domestic advantages in multilateral trade. At mean time, the FTA can avoid the globalization risks, and improve the competitiveness of the FTA members. China and Russia, the two of the four BRICs, sharing over 4300 km land boundary, play pivotal roles in world’s economics. The Sino-Russian bilateral trade volume in 2010 was 57.05 billion dollars. In Decemeber 2011, Russia has successfully joined the World Trade Organization, ending the 18 years’ marathon course, and opened a new chapter for the development of bilateral economic and trade activities. Considering the fact that both China and Russia are in their economic transitional periods, studying of the feasibility of establishing Sino-Russian FTA has important practical significance. Based on the summarized theories on FTA, this paper comprehensively discusses the necessity, feasibility and different approaches in establishing the Sino-Russian FTA from both theoretical and practical perspectives. Among which, this paper focuses more on the feasibility with least-squares regression equation and related trade index, and the main factors which effect the establishment of bilateral FTA are analyzed and summarized. Other perspectives are also considered in this paper. According to the research results, in spite of all negative factors, establishing the Sino-Russian FTA is still feasible. Both China and Russia should be positive in series issues such as reduction of tariffs, and make concessions in their profits during negotiation. Both countries should foresee the enormous benefits after the labor pains during the establishment of the FTA. Based on the common interests, they should make full use of the advantages such as geography, politics and complementary resources, to face the challenges, and to overcome the obstacles. The establishment of Sino-Russian FTA is a long, complex process that requires the joint efforts of both countries. The FTA will be theIII solid foundation of the further bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia. Key Words: Sino-Russia, FTA, complementarity, feasibilityIV 目 录 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract ................................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1 本文研究的背景和意义 ........................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 课题研究的背景 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 课题研究的目的 .......................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 课题的研究意义 .......................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外文献综述 .................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 自贸区相关理论研究 ................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 建立中俄自由贸易区的国内外研究综述 ................................................... 4 1.3 本文的主要内容及研究方法 ................................................................................ 8 1.4 本文的创新点 ........................................................................................................ 8 第二章 建立中俄自由贸易区的理论基础.........................................................................9 2.1 区域经济一体化中的自由贸易区 ......................................................................... 9 2.2 区域经济一体化的相关理论 ............................................................................... 10 2.2.1 比较优势和要素禀赋学说 ........................................................................ 10 2.2.2 关税同盟理论 ............................................................................................ 10 2.2.3 其他相关理论 ............................................................................................. 13 第三章 中俄双边经贸关系现状.......................................................................................15 3.1 双边进出口贸易 ................................................................................................... 15 3.1.1 进出口贸易概况 ......................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 贸易结合度分析 ......................................................................................... 17 3.2 双向投资 ............................................................................................................... 18 3.3 中国在俄劳务和工程承包 ................................................................................... 19 3.4 边境贸易 ............................................................................................................... 19 第四章 建立中俄自由贸易区的影响因素.......................................................................20 4.1 建立中俄自贸区的有利因素 ............................................................................... 20 4.1.1 地缘优势 ..................................................................................................... 20 4.1.2 政治关系 ..................................................................................................... 20沈阳工业大学硕士学位报告 V 4.1.3 经济上的互补性 ......................................................................................... 21 4.1.4 科技合作 ..................................................................................................... 22 4.2 建立中俄自贸区的障碍 ....................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 贸易规模小，贸易商品结构单一 ............................................................. 23 4.2.2 两国的贸易自由化水平不同 ..................................................................... 24 4.2.3 制度合作机制不健全 ................................................................................. 25 4.2.4 贸易服务体系不完善 ................................................................................. 26 4.2.5 观念及文化的差异 ..................................................................................... 26 第五章 建立中俄自贸区可行性的实证分析...................................................................28 5.1 关税对中俄贸易的影响 ....................................................................................... 28 5.2 中俄贸易各项指数分析 ....................................................................................... 30 5.2.1 中俄贸易的比较优势分析 ......................................................................... 30 5.2.2 中俄两国的贸易互补性分析 ..................................................................... 35 5.2.3 中俄两国的产业内贸易分析 ..................................................................... 40 5.3 实证结论 ............................................................................................................... 42 第六章 建立中俄自由贸易区的对策与建议...................................................................44 第七章 结论.......................................................................................................................47