随着移动互联网、物联网、人工智能技术的发展，人们生活越发离不开智能设备， 而这些设备的大脑就是其中的嵌入式处理器。Reduced Instruction Set Computer - V （简 称 RISC-V）是近年来快速成长的处理器指令集架构，基于 RISC-V 指令集开发的处理 器性能优秀并得到了广大芯片设计厂商的认同。拥有多年芯片设计经验的 E 公司希望把 握住 RISC-V 的发展机遇，所以在公司内部启动了基于 RISC-V 的自主知识产权芯片研 发项目（以下简称为 R 项目）。 但一方面 RISC-V 技术还不成熟，标准还在完善中；另一方面，长期以来 E 公司内 部对项目风险管理不够重视。所以基于 RISC-V 的自主知识产权芯片研发项目依然存在 较大风险，如何识别这一类项目的风险具有相对显著的应用价值与管理启示意义。 本文首先通过专家访谈法了解到 E 公司 R 项目在需求、管理、技术、进度方面有许 多风险问题。然后运用 WBS-RBS(Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure) 矩阵来全面识别 E 公司 R 项目在开发过程中存在的风险。并根据构建的风险评价准则， 邀请公司内部专家对所识别出的风险项进行评分。为了考虑风险在项目内部传播的问题， 在 WBS-RBS 矩阵基础上再引入依赖结构矩阵(Dependence Structure Matrix, DSM)，从而 得出最终的项目综合风险评分。根据评分对风险来源进行排序，可得出对项目影响较大 的风险来源。这有助于 E 公司提前对风险及其影响程度有所了解，并集中主要资源来处 理主要风险，从而减轻风险带来的损失。最后针对识别出的风险提出应对措施，并对公 司的项目风险管理提出优化建议。 关键词，芯片项目 ；风险管理 ；WBS-RBS ；DSMII ABSTRACT With the development of mobile internet, internet of things and artificial intelligence technology, people can not live without intelligent devices, and the brains of these devices are embedded processors. Reduced Instruction Set Computer-V (RISC-V) is a rapidly growing processor instruction set architecture in recent years. Processors based on RISC-V instruction set have excellent performance and are recognized by many chip designers. E company, which has many years of experience in chip design, hopes to seize the development opportunities of RISC-V, so it launches independent intellectual property chip research and development project based on RISC-V (hereinafter referred to as R project). On the one hand, RISC-V technology is not mature, and the standard is still in the process of improvement; on the other hand, for a long time, E company has not paid enough attention to project risk management. Therefore, the R&D of independent intellectual property chip project based on RISC-V still has great risks. How to identify the risks of this kind of project has relatively significant application value and management enlightenment. Firstly, through expert interviews, this paper understands that R project of E company has many risk problems in demand, management, technology and schedule. Then the WBS-RBS matrix is used to identify the risk of R project in E company. According to the established risk evaluation criteria, experts in the company are invited to grade the identified risk items. In order to consider the problem of risk propagation within a project, a DSM work dependency matrix is introduced on the basis of WBS-RBS matrix to get the final project comprehensive risk score. By ranking the risk sources according to the score, we can get the risk sources which have great influence on the project. This will help E company to understand the risk and its impact in advance, and focus on the main efforts to deal with the main risks, thereby reducing the loss caused by the risk. Finally, the countermeasures are put forward for the identified risk items, and the optimization suggestions for the company's project risk management are put forward. Keywords: IC Project ; risk management ; WBS-RBS ; DSMIII 目录 摘要.............................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 目录..........................................................................................................................................III 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义.................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外风险管理研究现状.......................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 国内风险管理研究现状.......................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究内容及方法............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 研究内容.................................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 研究方法.................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 技术路线......................................................................................................................... 8 第二章 E 公司与 R 项目概述..................................................................................................9 2.1 E 公司简介 ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 R 项目简介 .................................................................................................................... 10 2.3 R 项目风险管理现状 .................................................................................................... 12 2.3.1 R 项目风险分析现状 ............................................................................................. 12 2.3.2 R 项目风险评价现状 ............................................................................................. 12 2.3.3 R 项目风险应对现状 ............................................................................................. 13 2.4 E 公司项目风险管理问题 ............................................................................................ 13 2.4.1 缺少风险分析与评价机制.................................................................................... 13 2.4.2 风险意识薄弱........................................................................................................ 13 2.4.3 对抗风险能力差.................................................................................................... 14 2.4.4 碎片化的风险管理................................................................................................ 14 2.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 14 第三章 R 项目风险识别与评估............................................................................................15 3.1 R 项目风险分析 ............................................................................................................ 15IV 3.1.1 需求风险................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.2 管理风险................................................................................................................ 16 3.1.3 技术风险................................................................................................................ 17 3.1.4 进度风险................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 R 项目风险识别 ............................................................................................................ 18 3.2.1 R 项目 WBS 与 RBS .............................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 R 项目 WBS-RBS 矩阵.......................................................................................... 20 3.3 R 项目风险评价 ............................................................................................................ 22 3.3.1 风险评价准则........................................................................................................ 22 3.3.2 项目风险评估........................................................................................................ 22 3.3.3 考虑风险传播的风险评估.................................................................................... 29 3.4 R 项目风险结果分析 .................................................................................................... 34 3.5 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 37 第四章 R 项目风险应对措施................................................................................................39 4.1 R 项目风险应对 ............................................................................................................ 39 4.1.1 R 项目风险对策概述 ............................................................................................. 39 4.1.2 R 项目风险分类准则 ............................................................................................. 42 4.1.3 R 项目风险应对措施 ............................................................................................. 42 4.2 项目风险管理优化建议............................................................................................... 46 4.2.1 组织层面优化........................................................................................................ 46 4.2.2 制度层面优化........................................................................................................ 46 4.3 本章小结....................................................................................................................... 47 结论..........................................................................................................................................49