冷链物流是农产品从田间到餐桌的一个低温流通过程。冷链物流的发展可以大大提 高食品的安全，同时减少食品的损耗和浪费。冷链物流也是我国经济快速发展和人民生 活水平不断提高的需要。我国冷链物流远远落后于欧美、日本等发达国家，发展空间巨 大。国家近期出台的一系列关于冷链物流发展的规划和政策，都是冷链物流发展的重大 机遇。 本次开发冷链物流项目的 X 公司，是一家以商贸、房地产为主要业务的大型公司， 业务范围包括百货、超市、房地产开发、冷链物流等行业。本商业计划书首先介绍了开 发背景和动因，随后阐述了开发方案，X 公司将把投资、建设和运营农产品（冷链）物 流园为企业发展的重点，依托本冷链物流项目为平台，树立公司冷链物流领域品牌，宗 旨是完成辐射全国 200 个城市的农产品（冷链）综合物流网络的战略布局。 本商业计划书是通过 X 公司深圳冷链物流项目的研究，为相关债权人充分提供项目 投资信息；本商业计划书针对 X 公司冷链物流项目运用战略管理的理论对项目内外部环 境进行分析，从中发现市场潜在的机会和项目的发展方向，并以此制定项目战略；运用 市场营销理论进行市场细分、确定目标市场以及进行市场定位，并制定营销计划；之后 运用财务管理的知识制定财务计划，对项目财务指标进行评价；最后运用风险管理的相 关理论对项目可能遇到的风险进行分析并提出相应的风险控制政策。为项目的成功运作 提供必要的可靠依据。 在对本次商业计划的各个相关影响参数作出详尽分析后，结论认为，X 公司开发冷 链物流项目具有投资收益高、运作周期短、风险可控的优点，该项投资是可行的。 关键词，冷链物流；冷库；商业计划书；财务分析；风险分析II ABSTRACT Cold chain logistic is one course of the agriculture product from the farm to dinning table. Development of the cold chain improves greatly the safety of food. At same time, it reduces the loss and waste of the food. Development of Cold chain logistic is the requirement of the our economic growth and daily life to people in China. Now, level of cold chain logistic in China fall behind it in developed country in Europe and Japan. So, there are great space to develop the cold chain logistic in China. With the development of the Chinese economic growth, Chinese Government release the plan & policy of the cold chain logistic recently to urge the development of the cold chain logistic in China. X company, being developed the cold chain logistic, is the large size complex one which business incl. shopping center, super market, real estate store. Its’ business proposal introduce the reason & back ground to develop the cold chain logistic and explain theplanning. X company will focus on the invest, build and operation of cold chain logistic for agriculture product and will set the net of cold chain logistic in 200 cities based on the logistic platform and set up the their brand in China This proposal details the items information for creditor based on the research of the Shenzhen Logistic Company. And looks for the latent opportunity and developing trend in market through the management &analysis of cold chain logistic in China. For the successful running, X company will analyze the market and make the proposal based on marketing sell theory, financial management and risk management and control. X company think that there are higher bargain of invest, shorter period running and easy control of risk after his analysis. Key words: cold chain logistic; cold store; business proposal; financial analysis; risk analysisIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景和意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 物流及冷链物流的概念........................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 我国冷链物流的现状................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 国内外冷链物流发展现状比较................................................................................ 4 1.2.4 发展冷链物流的意义................................................................................................ 6 1.3 研究方法与主要内容......................................................................................................... 6 第二章 X 公司及项目介绍......................................................................................................7 2.1 X 公司简介....................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 项目介绍.......................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 项目概况.................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 项目运作模式的确定................................................................................................ 9 2.2.3 项目技术指标.......................................................................................................... 10 2.2.4 项目实施进度计划及进度安排.............................................................................. 11 2.2.5 项目投资估算及资金举措...................................................................................... 12 2.3 项目机构设置................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.1 公司组织机构......................................................................................................... 13 2.3.2 人力资源配置......................................................................................................... 13 2.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 14 第三章 项目环境分析............................................................................................................15 3.1 宏观环境分析................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.1 政策（Policy）....................................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 经济（Economy）.................................................................................................. 16 3.1.3 社会（Society）..................................................................................................... 17 IV 3.1.4 技术（Technic） .................................................................................................... 19 3.2 行业环境分析 ................................................................................................................ 19 3.2.1 潜在进入者的威协................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 替代品或服务的威胁............................................................................................. 20 3.2.3 现有竞争者分析..................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4 供应商议价能力..................................................................................................... 22 3.2.5 客户议价能力......................................................................................................... 22 3.3 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 22 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 24 第四章 项目营销计划............................................................................................................25 4.1 STP 营销......................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.1 市场细分（Segmenting）....................................................................................... 25 4.1.2 目标市场（Targeting）.......................................................................................... 27 4.1.3 市场定位（Positioning）....................................................................................... 28 4.2 营销组合策略................................................................................................................ 29 4.2.1 营销战略................................................................................................................. 29 4.2.2 品牌策略................................................................................................................. 29 4.2.3 市场策略................................................................................................................. 30 4.2.4 促销策略................................................................................................................. 30 4.2.5 人力资源策略......................................................................................................... 31 4.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 31 第五章 财务计划及风险分析................................................................................................32 5.1 投资估算及资金措施.................................................................................................... 32 5.1.1 投资估算................................................................................................................. 32 5.1.2 资金筹措................................................................................................................. 33 5.2 财务效益分析................................................................................................................ 34 5.2.1 财务评价的原则..................................................................................................... 34 5.2.2 财务评价的依据..................................................................................................... 34 5.2.3 财务评价主要参数................................................................................................. 34 5.2.4 财务效益分析......................................................................................................... 35 V 5.2.5 财务评价结论......................................................................................................... 37 5.3 风险分析........................................................................................................................ 38 5.3.1 风险因素分析......................................................................................................... 38 5.3.2 风险防范措施......................................................................................................... 39 5.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 41 结 论........................................................................................................................................42