尼尔基风电场位于尼尔基水利枢纽内。尼尔基水利枢纽位于嫩江干流的中游，水 库坝址距离嫩江河口 585km，坝址处是嫩江干流最后一个峡谷，扼嫩江由山区丘陵地 带流入广阔的松嫩平原的咽喉。水库左岸为黑龙江省的讷河市和嫩江县。坝址右岸为 尼尔基镇，左岸为讷河市的二克浅乡。距离工业重镇齐齐哈尔 150 公里，距离讷河火 车站 29 公里，距离尼尔基镇 9 公里，交通方便，地理位置十分优越。区域内风力资源 很多，其中尼尔基水库两岸、兴旺乡百路村、二克浅镇敖包山、学田镇红马山、茂山 林场等地先后都进行了测风工作、测风结果表明该地区风力资源丰富，具备可观的开 发容量。其中兴旺乡百路村风场可开发容量在 100MW，二克浅镇学田镇风场可开发容 量在 100MW，茂山林风场可开发容量在 600MW。根据尼尔基风电场所在地区社会经 济发展和各行业远景规划，结合风电场的自然条件、资源特点、建设条件，以及风能 资源开发利用的要求，尼尔基风电场项目开发任务以发电为主，兼顾旅游效益。而且 尼尔基地区冬、春两季风大，风电可以大发，夏、秋两季风小，相应风电出力少。而 夏、秋两季是丰水期，水电可以多发，到冬、春季则是枯水期。这样，风电和水电可 以互补。 本文以尼尔基风电场新建工程项目的可行性为研究案例，全文分为六章。第一、 第二部分在介绍了研究背景和基本概况、研究意义、研究目的、内容和方法的基础上， 从项目管理和可行性研究的一般理论入手，阐述了项目可行性分析的主要内容及其作 用，并介绍了尼尔基风电场新建工程目前面临的经济环境及项目投资的有关背景，从 国内外市场形势和企业发展的角度出发阐述了尼尔基风电场新建工程的必要性及其经 济意义、建设方案及存储规模。第三到第五部分，根据现代项目管理与可行性分析的 基本原理，遵循可行性分析的一般过程，进行了项目的环境分析和技术分析，并在此 基础上提出了建设尼尔基风电场新建工程的具体实施方案，如市场需求与预测、资源 因素评估、环境因素评估、发电机组可行性分析、土建可行性分析、投资估算与资金 筹措方案评价等。并研究了项目的企业组织和实施规划，在进行了市场调研分析的基 础上，通过项目投资和收入的资金估算、以及资金筹措方案等角度对项目进行专项可 行性研究。并且对项目建设的中风力发电机技术风险、电力定价风险、送出工程风险、 操作管理风险等方面进行了风险分析，同时得出这些风险的控制措施。最后，得出了 有益的结论。帮助决策者做出正确的决策，提高投资效益。 关键词： 风电场，新建工程，项目，可行性I Research on New Construction Feasibility of Nierji Wind Electric Field Abstract Nierji wind electric field located at Nierji hydro-junction. The Nierji hydro-junction located at the Nenjiang River main current's middle reaches， the reservoir dam site is away from Nenjiang River mouth 585km， the dam site place is the Nenjiang River main current last canyon, clutches the Nenjiang River to flow in the broad Songnen Plain's pharynx and larynx by the mountainous area rough terrain. The reservoir left bank is Heilongjiang Province's Nehe and Nenjiang County. The dam site right bank is the Nierji town, left bank is Nehe's Erke Qian township. It is 150 kilometers away from the strategic industrial city --- Qiqihar, 29 kilometers away from the Nehe railway station, 9 kilometers away from Nierjitown. Its trasportation is convenient, and its geographical position is extremely superior. The anemography work carried on in the region including both banks of Nierji hydro-junction, Bailu village, Xingwang township, Aobao Mountain in Erkeqian town, Mahong Mountain in Xuetian town and Maoshan tree farm show that the local wind power resources within the region is rich and the development capacity is considerable. The potential capacity of the wind field in ailu village, Xingwang township is about 100MWB, in Xuetian town and Erkeqian town about 100MW, in Maoshan tree farm about 600MW. According to the Nierji wind electric field area socio-economic development and various professions long-term planning， the union wind electric field's natural condition， the resources characteristic， the construction condition， as well as the wind energy resource development use's request， the Nierji wind electric field project development mission generates electricity primarily， proper attention to both traveling benefit. Moreover, the wind is strong in Winter and Spring Nierji, so Wind-electricity generation capacity is great in the two seasons. The wind is weak in Summer and Autumn, so the Wind-electricity generation capacityi s little in these two seasons. However, Summer and Autumn are the high water seasons, so the hydropower generation capacity is great. But Winter and Spring are the dry seasons. Thus, the wind electricity generation and the hydropower generation may become complementary. This article take the Nierji wind electric field new construction project's feasibility as the research case，the full text divides into six chapters. First，the second part in introduced the research background， the research significance， the research goal， the content and in the method foundation， obtained from the project management and feasibility study's general theory， to elaborate the project feasibility analysis's primary coverage and the function， and introduced the Nierji wind electric field new construction faced at present theII economic environment and the project investment's related background， elaborated the Nierji wind electric field new construction necessity and the economic significance， the construction plan and the memory scale from the domestic and foreign market situation and enterprise development's angle embarking. Third arrives at the fifth part， according to modern project management and feasibility analysis's basic principle，follows the feasibility analysis the general process， has carried on the project environment analysis and the technical analysis， based on this and proposed constructs the Nierji wind electric field new construction the concrete implementation plan， like market demand and predict that resources factor appraisal， environmental factor appraisal， power set feasibility analysis， construction feasibility analysis， investment estimate and fund raising program evaluation and so on. And has studied the project enterprise organization and the implementation plan， in has carried on the market investigation and study analysis foundation，through the project investment and the income fund estimate， as well as angles and so on fund raising plan conducts the special feasibility study to the project. And some risk analysis about the technological risks about the wind-driven generator, the power price fixed risk, the transmission project risk and the management risk has been made. Simultaneously some control measures have been obtained. Finally， has drawn the beneficial conclusion. Helps the policy-maker to make the correct decision-making， raises the investment benefit. Keywords: Wind electric field，new construction，Project，FeasibilityI 目 录 第 1 章 绪论..... 1 1.1 项目背景和基本概况 1 1.1.1 项目背景..... 1 1.1.2 项目基本概况. 1 1.2 项目研究意义...... 2 1.3 项目可行性研究的作用及必要性 ........ 3 1.3.1 项目可行性研究的作用.. 3 1.3.2 项目可行性研究的必要性分析 ..... 5 1.4 项目可行性研究理论综述..... 5 1.4.1 项目可行性研究的概念及特点 ..... 5 1.4.2 项目可行性研究的内容及步骤 ..... 6 1.4.3 项目可行性研究方法.... 8 1.5 项目研究方法和研究内容.... 10 1.5.1 研究方法.... 10 1.5.2 研究内容及报告框架... 10 第 2 章 项目建设的投资机会评估分析 12 2.1 项目的市场研究及需求评估分析 ....... 12 2.1.1 风力发电市场发展前景. 12 2.1.2 用电需求分析 12 2.1.3 区域内社会经济概况... 13 2.1.4 区域内电网现状....... 13II 2.2 项目建设的资源因素评估分析 13 2.2.1 参考气象站 ..13 2.2.2 特征值统计 ..13 2.2.3 气象站风向统计 .......15 2.2.4 风电场测风资料的整理和分析 ....16 2.2.5 风场风况特征计算 .....19 2.2.6 风能资源评价 27 2.3 项目建设的环境因素评估分析 29 2.3.1 尼尔基风电场项目附近的工程地质情况 .....29 2.3.2 尼尔基风电场场址工程地质情况 ..30 第 3 章 项目建设的技术可行性分析 ..31 3.1 工程任务与规模 ...31 3.1.1 工程任务 ....31 3.1.2 工程规模 ....31 3.2 风力发电机组可行性分析 ....32 3.2.1 发电机组选型 32 3.2.2 风电场总体布置 .......36 3.2.3 年上网电量计算 .......37 3.3 电气可行性分析 ...39 3.3.1 电气一次 ....39 3.3.2 电气二次 ....41 3.3.3 通信 ........43III 3.4 土建可行性分析... 44 3.4.1 土建工程设计 44 3.4.2 消防设计.... 45 3.4.3 其他因素.... 45 第 4 章 项目建设的投资估算及效益评价 ....... 48 4.1 项目建设的投资估算与资金筹措方案评价 ........ 48 4.1.1 项目建设的投资估算... 48 4.1.2 项目建设的资金筹措方案........ 52 4.1.3 评价........ 53 4.2 财务评价 53 4.2.1 总投资...... 53 4.2.2 发电总成本费用....... 54 4.2.3 风电场税金.. 55 4.2.4 清偿能力分析 56 4.2.5 盈利能力分析 57 4.2.6 敏感性分析.. 57 4.3 经济效益评价..... 58 4.4 社会效益评价..... 60 第 5 章 项目建设的投资风险分析与控制 ....... 62 5.1 项目投资风险分析. 62 5.1.1 风力发电机技术风险... 62 5.1.2 电力定价风险 62IV 5.1.3 送出工程风险 62 5.1.4 操作管理风险 62 5.2 项目投资风险的控制措施 ....63 5.2.1 项目进度保障 63 5.2.2 建设风险防范机制保障 .63 5.2.3 项目安全及其他保障 ...64 结论 ...66