投资是企业可持续增长的源泉和动力，但是只有正确的投资决策才能维护和 推动企业的成长，错误的投资决策可能使得企业面临破产的灾难。为了确保投资 达到预期效果，投资项目需要进行投资项目的可行性研究来分析判断项目是否可 行。 本文以“2010年新增2000吨茅台酒技改工程”为研究对象进行项目投资可行性 分析。研究内容包括项目的建设背景和市场前景分析、工程技术方案评价、经济 效益和社会效益评价三个部分。 在进行项目建设背景和市场前景分析时，分析了国酒茅台继续建设发展必要 性；而国酒茅台的消费市场一直供不应求，市场前景广阔，实施“2010 年新建 2000 吨茅台酒技改工程”是公司发展和满足市场需求的重要措施。 在工程技术评方案评价内容中，本项目采用了茅台酒的传统酿造工艺，确定 了相应的项目工程技术方案，为后续的效益评价确定了工程基础数据。 最后对项目进行经济效益和社会效益进行评价。在充分考虑茅台酒贮存周期 较长，基酒必须充分老熟后才能勾兑上市的生产特征情况下，经测算该项目经济 效益较好，并且能够给当地带来税收、就业等社会效益，项目可行。同时，在经 济效益评价中也反映出在经营初期，项目的流动资金沉淀很大，投入资金的科学 预算与合理使用成为项目顺利实施的关键。 关键词，茅台酒、可行性研究、市场预测、财务评价II ABSTRACT A investment is a source and dynamics of a sustainable corporation development. But only the correct investment decision-making can maintain and promote the enterprise growth. The wrong investment decision-making can make enterprise face bankruptcy disaster. In order to ensure investment achieve expected result, The investment project need estimate whether the investment project is feasible through the feasibility research of the investment item. The Technical transformation project which appends 2000 tons Moutai liquor in 2010 is analyzed by project investment feasibility in the paper. The paper includes three parts, namely the analysis of constructive background and market perspective, the evaluation of engineering technology scheme, the evaluation of economic and social benefit. When the project construction background and market perspective are analyzed, the necessity of the continuous construction and development of the national liquor Moutai liquor is analyzed. Because the supply of the national liquor Moutai liquor is not adequate to the demand and has a broad market prospect, implementing the Technical transformation project which appends 2000 tons Moutai liquor in 2010 is a important measure that develops enterprise and satisfies demand. The engineering technology scheme of the project is determined according to the traditional brewing technics of the Moutai liquor which is adapted in the project when the engineering technology scheme is evaluated. It provides a engineering basis data for following benefit evaluation. Finally, the economic and social benefit of the project is evaluated. Giving due considerations to the product characteristics which the liquor is sold after the basic liquor need be reserved for long time so that it is fully matured, the project has a good benefit by computation and can bring out social benefit of local tax and employment. Therefore the project is feasible. At the same time the scientific investment budget and reasonable investment usage is a key which the project is successfully constructed because the investment in the preliminary operation is very large. Key Word: Moutai liquor; feasibility study; market forecast; financial evaluationIII 目 录 第一章 引言.....1 1.1 选题背景 ..... 1 1.2 相关理论简述 ..... 2 1.2.1 项目投资可行性研究... 2 1.2.2 项目投资可行性研究的发展概况和作用 . 3 1.2.3 项目投资可行性研究的内容.... 4 1.3 主要结构和内容 7 第二章 项目建设背景和市场预测分析 ....8 2.1 项目建设背景 ..... 8 2.1.1 企业生存环境分析 .... 8 2.1.2 市场竞争分析.. 9 2.1.2.2 市场竞争 .. 10 2.1.3 企业内部状况. 10 2.1.4 产品的内涵 .. 13 2.2 项目市场前景分析 . 15 2.2.1 目标市场与竞争分析.. 15 2.2.2 市场预测 .... 19 2.2.3 市场风险 .... 23 2.3 小结 ..... 24 第三章 工程技术方案评价25 3.1 建设规模及产品方案 ..... 25 3.1.1 建设规模 .... 25 3.1.2 产品方案 .... 25 3.2 工艺技术方案 .... 25 3.2.1 工艺流程概述. 25 3.2.2 生产设施 .... 28 3.2.3 主要设备选型. 28 3.2.4 主要原辅料及动力消耗指标... 29IV 3.3 工程建设方案 .... 30 3.3.1 项目组成 .... 30 3.3.2 土建工程方案. 31 3.3.3 总图、运输及辅助工程 31 3.4 项目组织设计及实施进度安排..... 34 3.4.1 项目组织设计. 34 3.4.2 项目实施进度安排 ... 36 3.5 小结 ..... 36 第四章 项目效益评价 ...38 4.1 经济效益评价 .... 38 4.1.1 资金运用与筹措 ..... 38 4.1.2 收益预测 .... 42 4.1.3 财务评价 .... 45 4.2 社会效益评价 .... 50 4.2.1 项目实施对社会的影响分析... 50 4.2.2 项目与所在地互适应性分析... 50 4.2.3 社会风险分析. 51 4.2.4 社会评价结论. 51 4.3 小结 ..... 51 第五章 结论及建议.....52 5.1 结论 ..... 52 5.2 建议 ..... 53 致谢 ..54