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摘要
近年来，在绿色能源的号召下，光伏电站的建设和应用广泛起来，光伏电站
EPC(Engineer Purchase Construct，即设计、采购、施工)总承包项目模式广泛推广
起来。但是，在推广的同时没有深刻的理解这种模式内在的本质，皮毛的应用带
来了许多的问题：在EPC管理模式中，风险管理受到管理者个人能力因素和企业
重视程度不够等影响，大部分没有发挥出EPC模式的优势，好多项目都以失败告
终
光伏行业EPC模式有其自身的特点，与传统的建筑行业EPC模式有很大的区
别。生命周期短、投资和技术含量高、涉及的专业领域多等特点，就为风险管理
带来了多重不同的风险因素，对风险管理的方法也提出新的要求
本文把风险管理理论和EPC模式相结合，形成EPC模式的风险管理理论体系，
并且应用于光伏电站建设项目上，透彻分析其应用的可行性，结合光伏电站建设
的特点，建立光伏电站EPC总承包项目模式的风险管理体系；通过专家调查法，
对光伏电站EPC模式工程的风险因素进行有效的分析和整理归纳，建立风险管理
因素清单；在应用模糊评价法对光伏电站EPC总承包武安市项目存在的不确定因
素进行预想推论，针对可能发生的情况造成的严重损失，提出风险应对措施
结合风险管理理论与评价模型介绍的基础上，本文最后引入武安市光伏电站
项目，通过对项目概况的介绍，根据实际情况对风险进行识别，列出影响想项目
风险的若干因素，然后通过运用层次分析法和模糊评判，得出工程项目运行的风
险等级以及主要的风险影响因素，最后根据得出的结论，提出适合本项目的风险
应对措施，并且进一步证明层次分析法，模糊评价法在光伏电站EPC项目的风险
管理中具有有效性
关键词：光伏电站；EPC项目；风险管理；层次分析；模糊评价
Abstract
In recent years, photovoltaic power plant EPC (Engineer Purchase Construct) gen-
eral contracting project model is widely promoted with the construction and widely ap-
plication of photovoltaic power plant under the needing of green energy. However, the
application has brought many problems because there is no deep understanding of the
inherent nature of this model: in the EPC management model, the risk management by
the manager's personal ability factors and the degree of lack of attention, Most of the
EPC model did not show the advantages and a lot of projects have ended up in failure as
the risk management is influenced by the manager's personal ability factors and the de-
gree of attention.
Photovoltaic industry EPC model has its own characteristics, and different from the
traditional construction industry EPC model. Short life cycle, high investment and tech-
nical content and other factors bring many different risk factors for risk management
and put forward new requirements for risk management.
This paper combined the risk management theory and the EPC model, formed the
EPC model of risk management theory system, and applied it to the construction of
photovoltaic power plant project. Analyzed the feasibility of its application according to
the characteristics of photovoltaic power plant construction andestablished photovol-
taic power plant EPC general contract project model of risk management system, estab-
lished the risk management factor list through analyzing and sortingthe risk factors of
photovoltaic power plant EPC project by the expert survey method. Then predict the
uncertain factors of photovoltaic power plant EPC general contract of Wuan City project
through application of fuzzy evaluation method .And put forward the risk response
measures for the possible occurrence of the serious losses.
Based on the introduction of risk management theory and the evaluation model,
this paper lists the factors that affect the project risk through real example of Wuan City
Photovoltaic Power Station, according to the actual situation, and then get the risk level
of the project operation and the main risk factors through the use of the level analysis
method and fuzzy judgment method. Finally, according to the conclusion, this paper
puts forward the proper risk response measures for the project, and further proves the
effectiveness of analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy evaluation method in EPC
project risk management.
Keywords: photovoltaic power station; EPC project; risk management; hierar-
chical analysis;fuzzy evaluation。