独创性声明�崳�
本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研宄工�崳�
作及取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地�崳�
方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含�崳�
本人为获得江南大学或其它教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。�崳�
与我一同工作的同志对本研宄所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明�崳�
确的说明并表示谢意。�崳�
签名：各f�壢掌冢耗阾月J日�崳�
关于论文使用授权的说明�崳�
本学位论文作者完全了解江南大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规�崳�
定：江南大学有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和�崳�
电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅，可以将学位论文的全部或部分内容�崳�
编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保�崳�
存、汇编学位论文，并且本人电子文档的内容和纸质论文的内容相
一�崳�
致。�崳�
保密的学位论文在解密后也遵守此规定。�崳�
签名：9和．�壍际η┟�：
＼
＿�崳�
日期：年么月CT日�崳�
摘要
I
摘要
经济的发展依赖于企业的发展，作为市场经济的中坚力量——企业需要为经
济的发展做出重大贡献。而企业价值的实现与其资本结构相挂钩，资本结构也是
企业管理者进行公司治理、做出决策的依据。因而，在中国市场经济这一背景下，
研究企业资本结构显得格外重要。对于资本结构理论的研究最早可以追溯至
1958年，MM理论的提出，此后广大学者对于资本结构理论的研究空前繁荣，
一大批资本结构理论应运而生。近年来，因为动态资本结构与现实情况更相符，
更能为企业决策提供依据，对其的研究更是成为了焦点。目前我国企业的资产负
债率普遍偏高，资本结构的不合理将会阻碍我国企业的健康发展，最终将会成为
我国经济发展的绊脚石。为了促进我国经济的发展，使我国稳居世界大国的地位，
需要对我国企业的资本结构进行调整
纵观国内外文献，资本结构影响因素的研究仍是当前研究资本结构动态调整
的重中之重，研究的视角包括宏观经济环境、国家税收政策、市场化程度等，很
少有学者从市场择时的角度进行研究。而对于市场择时的研究也局限于对市场择
时理论适用性的探讨。因此本文立足我国市场经济，从市场择时角度研究资本结
构的动态调整
本文选取了2012—2016年上市公司的数据进行研究，以股票换手率作为市
场择时的衡量指标，研究市场择时与资本结构动态调整之间的关系，为了进一步
研究管理者因素是否会对两者关系产生影响，加入了管理者风险偏好因素进行研
究，最终得出：第一，市场择时因素对资本结构的调整速度的影响是正向的。股
票价格高估时资本结构的调整速度高于股票价格低估时资本结构的调整速度。第
二，市场择时因素对资本结构的调整效果的影响是负向的。相对于股票价格低估
状态，股票价格高估时，资本结构偏离目标资本结构的程度越低。第三，股票换
手率越高，管理者选择外源性融资的可能性越大。第四，在其他条件不变的情况
下，相对于风险厌恶者，风险爱好者风险偏好程度越高，市场择时因素对资本结
构动态调整的影响越大。但是具体而言，股票价格高估与股票价格低估对于市场
择时因素对资本结构动态调整的影响并不明显。最后本文根据实证研究的结果，
给出了相关政策建议
关键词：市场择时；资本结构；动态调整；管理者风险偏好
Abstract
II
Abstract
The development of the economy depends on the development of the enterprise.
Enterprises have made great contributions to the development of the economy. The
realization of enterprise value is linked to its capital structure. Capital structure is also
the basis for corporate managers to make decisions and make decisions. Therefore, in
the context of China's market economy, it is particularly important to study the capital
structure of enterprises. The theory of capital structure can be traced back to the 1958
MM theory. Since then, many scholars have studied the theory of capital structure
unprecedentedly, and a large number of capital structure theories came into being. In
recent years, because dynamic capital structure is more consistent with reality, it can
provide a basis for enterprise decision making, and its research is more important. At
present, the ratio of assets and liabilities in China is generally high, and the irrational
capital structure will hinder the development of our enterprises. Finally, it hinders our
country's economic development. In order to promote the development of our
country's economy and make our country a big country in the world, it is necessary to
adjust the capital structure of our enterprises.
Looking at the literature at home and abroad, the research on the dynamic
adjustment of capital structure is mainly focused on the influence factors of capital
structure. The perspective of the study includes the macroeconomic environment, the
national tax policy, the degree of marketization and so on. Few scholars study from
the perspective of market timing. The study of market timing is also limited to the
applicability of the market timing theory. Therefore, based on the market timing
theory, this paper studies the dynamic adjustment of capital structure on the basis of
market timing theory in China.
This paper selects data from listed companies from 2012 to 2016. Taking stock
turnover as a measure of market timing, this paper studies the relationship between
market timing and dynamic adjustment of capital structure. In order to further study
whether managers will have an impact on the relationship between them, this paper
adds managers' risk preference factors. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn.
First, the timing of market timing has a positive impact on the speed of capital
structure adjustment. When the stock price is overestimated, the speed of capital
structure adjustment is higher than that of stock price underestimation. Second, the
timing of market timing is negatively related to the adjustment effect of capital
Abstract
III
structure. Compared with underestimation of stock price and overestimation of stock
price, the degree of capital structure deviating from target capital structure is lower.
Third, the higher the turnover rate of stock is, the more likely managers are to choose
exogenous financing. Fourth, the higher the risk aversion is, the higher the risk
preference of risk averse, the greater the market timing factors have on the dynamic
adjustment of capital structure. But specifically, overestimation of stock price and
underestimation of stock price have no obvious influence on market timing factors
and dynamic adjustment of capital structure. Finally, based on the results of empirical
research, this paper gives relevant policy recommendations.
Keywords: market timing; capital structure; dynamic adjustment; managers' risk
preference。