摘要
随着社会经济的不断发展，人类对能源的需求量在逐年上涨。尤其是在能源
发展与经济增长、环境保护之间矛盾突出的今天，天然气作为一种低碳能源，因
其具有优质高效、绿色清洁的特点，在经济发展建设中的占有着越来越重要的地
位。天然气本身性质特殊，往往采用长输管道方式运输。在传输的过程当中，涉
及的社会、自然环境复杂，风险影响因素较多，一旦发生事故，后果危害较大
在此背景下，从全局角度出发，对天然气管道运行风险的分析与评价就显得尤为
重要
针对A市天然气管网运行过程中存在天然气酸性高、穿跨越点多、自然环境
复杂、水土流失严重、设备工艺存在缺陷、日常管理水平仍需提高等诸方面问题，
作者首先结合国内外天然气管道风险分析评价的研究成果，运用风险管理理论对A
市天然气管网运行风险进行了全面梳理和分析，识别出A市天然气管网在管道腐
蚀、第三方施工、自然环境、设计施工、日常操作等五个方面的风险因素；其次，
从风险因素识别结果出发，对A市天然气管网运行现状进行评价，将模糊数学分
析与层次分析法、专家打分法相结合，构造出了一套更为科学、准确的天然气管
道风险评价体系；然后，根据地域特点将A市天然气管网分段进行评价，并将风
险评价结果与现实情况比对，印证了评价方法的可靠性；最后，提出了一套完备
的A市天然气管网运行风险防控策略，并对我国的天然气管网风险评价问题研究
进行了展望
在符合国内外天然气管道风险评价理论实际发展和需求下，本文研究了A市
天然气管网运行风险并进行评价，所得结果与管网运行现状相符，证实了本文构
造的风险评价体系的合理性。由于时间仓促，水平有限，在数学模型构造和风险
控制和管理部分论述仍有不足
关键词：风险管理；风险评价；风险识别；权重；模糊评价
西安建筑科技大学硕士论文
Risk analysis and evaluation of natural gas pipeline network
in A City
Specialty: Business Administration
Name: Ding Hao
Instructor: Zhang Xinsheng Professor
Abstract
With the continuous development of social economy, the demand for energy is
increasing year by year. Especially in the contradiction between energy development
and economic growth and environmental protection, natural gas, as a kind of low carbon
energy, has a more and more important position in the economic development and
construction because of its high quality, high efficiency, green and clean characteristics.
Natural gas is special in nature and often transported by means of long distance pipeline.
In the process of transmission, the social and natural environment involved is complex,
and there are many risk factors. Once the accident happens, the consequences will be
more serious. Against this background, it is particularly important to analyze and
evaluate the operation risks of natural gas pipelines from a global perspective.
In the course of the operation of natural gas pipeline network in A City, there are
many problems, such as high acidity of natural gas, many crossing points, complicated
natural environment, serious soil erosion, defects of equipment technology and
improvement of daily management level. The author first combines the research results
of wind risk analysis and evaluation of natural gas pipeline at home and abroad, and
uses the risk. The management theory combed and analyzed the operation risk of natural
gas pipeline network in A City, and identified the risk factors in the five aspects of
pipeline corrosion, third party construction, natural environment, design and
construction, daily operation and so on. Secondly, starting from the results of risk
factors identification, the operation status of natural gas pipeline network in A city was
carried out. By combining the fuzzy mathematical analysis with the analytic hierarchy
process and the expert scoring method, a set of more scientific and accurate risk
assessment system for natural gas pipeline is constructed. Then, according to the
西安建筑科技大学硕士论文
regional characteristics, the subsection of natural gas pipeline network in A city is
evaluated, and the results are compared with the actual situation, and the evaluation
party is confirmed. In the end, a complete set of risk prevention and control strategies
for the operation of natural gas pipeline network in A city is put forward, and the
research on the risk assessment of natural gas pipeline network in China is prospected.
In accordance with the actual development and demand of the theory of natural gas
pipeline risk assessment both at home and abroad, this paper studies the operation risk
of natural gas pipeline network in A city and evaluates it. The results are in conformity
with the current situation of the pipeline network operation, which confirms the
rationality of the risk evaluation system constructed in this paper. Due to the limited
time and limited level, there are still deficiencies in the construction of mathematical
models and risk control and management.
Keywords: Risk management; Risk assessment; Risk identification；Weight
analysis；Fuzzy evaluation。