BIGGS
on
FINANCE,
ECONOMICS,
and the
STOCK
MARKET
Barton’s Market Chronicles
from the Morgan Stanley Years
BARTON BIGGS
Cover image:iStockphoto/nicoolay &iStockphoto/Ursula Alter
Cover design: Wiley
Copyright2014 by Barton Biggs. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
ISBN 978-1-118-5723-06 (Hardcover)
ISBN 978-1-118-6546-68 (ePDF)
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Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
iii
Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
Section 1: What’s Old Is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43。