Research on Financial Risk and Early
Warning in Public Secondary Vocational
Colleges-Based on H Technician College
A Dissertation Submitted to
the Graduate School of Henan University
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the Degree of
Master of Business Administration
By
Bingyang Zhao
Supervisor: Prof.Wanli Liu
June，2018
I
I
摘 要
继高校快速扩招时期之后，公办中职院校也迎来了其高速发展阶段。随着国家对技
能人才的需求量越来越大，对职业教育的重视和政策支持力度也越来越大。公办中职院
校之间竞争越发激烈，为争夺生源，许多学校纷纷抢抓机遇，购买土地建设新校区。在
这个过程中，公办中职院校由于资金需求量增大，通常以举借外债的方式获取资金。负
债运营给学校增加了财务负担，同时增大了政府的监管责任和救助义务。随着还款期的
到来，一些学校已经出现了资金周转问题。公办中职院校一旦发生财务危机，必然加重
政府财政负担。如何防范和控制公办中职院校面临的财务风险，遏制债务危机的发生，
避免产生类似高校过度负债的的问题和危害给社会造成不良影响，成为政府不可忽视的
问题
本文以政府监管的角度，对公办中职院校的财务风险问题进行研究。首先介绍了公
办中职院校财务风险产生的根源和背景，阐明了公办中职院校财务风险问题研究的意
义。接下来，对国内外学者在财务风险及预警方面已经取得的研究成果和经验进行了总
结和归纳，介绍了财务风险的相关概念、分类和主要特征。然后，本文选取了高校贷款
额度控制模型进行改进，利用其对公办中职院校贷款控制额度进行测算。同时从财务风
险评价指标方面，选取十二个财务分析指标来综合考量公办中职院校财务风险。为了进
一步验证该模型的实用性，本文以H技师学院为主要的样本案例，选取该校2016、2017
年度连续两年财务数据为基础数据，对该校还款能力及财务风险状况作出判断，对该校
财务风险产生的原因进行了分析。本文认为，政府应当充分认识到对公办中职院校财务
风险状况监督和管理的必要性和重要性，防范和遏制债务危机的发生对政府、对社会造
成不良影响。针对公办中职院校目前存在的财务风险，本文提出了政府可以采取的一些
防范措施，力求在分析公办中职院校目前财务风险的现状及原因的基础上，对政府今后
的监管提供一种有效的量化评价方法，为政府的监管起到一定的帮助作用
关键词：公办中职院校，财务风险，预警，风险防范
III
ABSTRACT
Following the period of rapid enrollment expansion in colleges and universities, public secondary
vocational colleges have also ushered in their high-speed development stage. With the growing demand for
skilled talents in China, the attention on vocational education and policy support are also increasing. The
competition among the public secondary vocational colleges has become increasingly fierce. To compete
for students resources, many schools have seized the opportunity to purchase land for the construction for
new campuses. In this process, secondary vocational colleges usually use foreign debt to obtain funds
because of the increased demand for funds. With the arrival of the repayment period, some schools have
experienced difficulties in capital turnover. Once the financial crisis occurs in the public secondary
vocational schools, the financial burden of the government will inevitably increase. How to prevent and
control the financial risks faced by publicly-funded secondary vocational colleges, curb the occurrence of
debt crisis, and avoid the occurrence of problems and harms similar to colleges and universities'
over-indebtedness have adversely affected the society, becoming a problem that the government cannot
ignore.
This article studies from the perspective of government supervision.This article first introduces the
causes and background of financial risks in secondary vocational colleges, and clarifies the significance of
the research on financial risks in secondary vocational colleges. Next, the concept, classification and main
features of financial risks are introduced, and the theoretical support of this paper is constructed. By
summarizing the research achievements that scholars at home and abroad have made in terms of financial
risks and early-warnings, considering the characteristics of the secondary vocational colleges and the
principles of risk early warning system construction, the existing financial risk assessment indicators have
been improved and designed. To enable it to adapt to secondary vocational schools, this special type of
research object, starting from the three aspects of solvency, ability to pay, ability to grow, twelve financial
analysis indicators are selected to comprehensively consider the financial risk of secondary vocational
colleges. On this basis, this paper completed the design and construction of the financial risk warning
system in secondary vocational colleges. In order to further verify the practicability of this model, this。