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高盛_2019年全球经济展望_2018.11_19页

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文本描述
Landing the Plane
When the books are closed on 2018, it should look like a pretty good year for the global
economy.Real GDP growth is on track for 3.8%, which is above potential if not quite as
rm as suggested by the high-frequency indicators early in the year.The laggard
economies in Europe and Japan saw further progress in the labor market, with ongoing
strength in employment and declines in the unemployment rate.And the renewed
“lowation” concerns of 2017 have subsided on the back of stronger wage growth
across the advanced economies and a rebound in US core ination.
But the high-water mark on growth is probably behind us.As shown in Exhibit 1, we
now expect global GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2019, with softer numbers across most DM
economies as well as China.In most places where we have reliable supply-side
estimates, our forecasts remain above potential, although the annual average numbers
overstate the strength in cases such as the US where we see growth slowing through
the year.
Part of the reason for slower growth is that a number of economies, especially in DM,
are hitting capacity constraints.The estimates in Exhibit 2 imply that actual GDP is now
0.1% above potential at the global level, mainly because of early signs of overheating in
the US, Germany, and a range of smaller DM economies.
Exhibit 1: Our Global Growth Outlook
Real GDP Growth
GSCons*GSCons*GSCons*
1.62.22.92.92.52.61.61.9
1.01.70.91.11.01.10.60.6
1.92.51.92.01.61.71.61.5
Germany2.22.51.71.81.91.71.61.5
France1.12.31.61.61.71.71.61.6
Italy1.01.61.01.10.41.01.10.9
Spain3.33.02.52.62.32.32.11.9
1.81.71.31.31.51.51.41.6
6.76.96.66.66.26.26.16.0
7.96.37.57.47.37.57.9-
-0.21.51.71.81.81.52.81.7
-3.51.01.21.42.62.33.02.6
1.72.42.42.42.12.11.71.7
4.55.15.15.14.74.95.35.1
3.13.83.83.93.53.63.63.6World
* Bloomberg consensus forecasts as of November.
** Bloomberg consensus fiscal year basis
China
India**
Russia
Brazil
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
2020 (f)
US
Japan
Euro Area
UK
Percent Change yoy201620172018 (f)2019 (f)
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 20182
Goldman SachsGlobal Economics Analyst
One of the most notable recent developments has been the pickup in wage growth
across most DM economies, illustrated in Exhibit 3.This is unsurprising in countries
such as the US or Germany, where unemployment is already at historically low levels.
But even the broader Euro area, as well as many of the smaller G10 economies, have
seen a pickup of late.
Core price ination remains more disparate.Exhibit 4 shows that the US and a range of
smaller DM economies are close to 2%, but both the Euro area and Japan are still quite
far away from central bank goals—indicative of remaining slack (in Europe) and
still-depressed ination expectations (especially in Japan).
Exhibit 2: A Number of DMs Are Running Hot
Note: Based on latest GDP data. Bar widths reflect GDP PPP weighting.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: A Notable Pickup in DM Wage Growth
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 20183
Goldman SachsGlobal Economics Analyst
The upturn in resource utilization and ination has persuaded a number of central banks
to start exiting from the very easy stance of monetary policy.As illustrated in Exhibit 5,
our forecasts imply a fairly broad-based turn to higher rates across most DM
economies, with Sweden, Australia, New Zealand, and (in our baseline forecast) the
Euro area joining the US, UK, Canada, and Norway in lifting their policy rates.The EM
monetary policy picture is likely to remain a bit more mixed.We expect hikes in
countries such as India and Brazil but see cuts in countries such as Russia and South
Africa.
Exhibit 4: Divergence in Ination Pressures
Note: Bar widths reflect GDP PPP weighting. We assume a 2% inflation target everywhere except in the Euro Area (1.9%),
Switzerland (1.9%), Australia (2.5%), China (2.25%), India (4%), Brazil (4.5%), and Russia (4%).
Source: Haver Analytics
Exhibit 5: A Broader Turn to Interest Rate Normalization in DM
Note: Diffusion Index = 1 x percent of central banks hiking + 0.5 x percent of central banks on hold.1030
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001030
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006200820102012201420162018
DM Central Bank Diffusion Index
GS Forecast
Index Index
DM Central Bank Diffusion Index1030
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001030
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006200820102012201420162018
EM Central Bank Diffusion Index
GS Forecast
Index Index
EM Central Bank Diffusion Index
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 20184
Goldman SachsGlobal Economics Analyst。