Barclays | U.S. REITs
4 February 2019 2
Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)
Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E)
Old New 31-Jan-19 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg
U.S. REITs Neu Pos
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE) OW OW 131.71 125.00 130.00 4 6.60 6.60 - 6.97 6.97 -
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV) OW EW 49.52 46.00 49.00 7 2.56 2.56 - 2.53 2.53 -
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) EW EW 18.20 19.00 19.00 - 1.81 1.81 - 2.07 2.07 -
Avalonbay Communities Inc. (AVB) EW EW 192.92 182.00 203.00 12 8.83 8.83 - 9.40 9.38 0
Boston Properties Inc. (BXP) OW OW 131.87 125.00 135.00 8 6.34 6.34 - 6.88 6.88 -
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) EW OW 15.05 17.00 17.00 - 1.38 1.38 - 1.42 1.42 -
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) EW EW 17.13 16.00 17.00 6 1.84 1.84 - 1.94 1.94 -
Camden Property Trust (CPT) EW OW 96.95 87.00 106.00 22 4.77 4.77 - 4.98 5.06 2
CBL & Associates Properties Inc. (CBL) EW EW 2.49 4.00 4.00 - 1.72 1.72 - 1.40 1.40 -
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) OW OW 45.75 56.00 60.00 7 3.21 3.21 - 3.49 3.45 -1
Cushman & Wakefield plc (CWK) OW OW 17.24 20.00 20.00 - 1.67 1.60 -4 1.77 1.55 -12
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) OW OW 108.34 131.00 137.00 5 6.60 6.60 - 6.79 6.79 -
Douglas Emmett Inc. (DEI) UW EW 37.83 37.00 39.00 5 2.02 2.02 - 2.19 2.13 -3
Duke Realty Corp. (DRE) EW EW 29.24 26.00 27.00 4 1.33 1.33 - 1.40 1.40 -
Equity Residential (EQR) EW EW 72.56 65.00 73.00 12 3.16 3.16 - 3.47 3.47 -
Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) EW EW 15.90 15.00 16.00 7 N/A N/A - 1.14 1.14 -
Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS) OW OW 271.20 262.00 296.00 13 12.92 12.92 - 13.14 13.14 -
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) OW OW 32.47 37.00 38.00 3 1.87 1.87 - 2.07 2.07 -
Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) EW EW 37.20 36.00 38.00 6 2.14 2.14 - 2.25 2.25 -
Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) OW OW 143.41 167.00 173.00 4 11.16 11.16 - 11.24 11.24 -
Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM) OW OW 17.01 17.00 18.00 6 1.45 1.45 - 1.43 1.43 -
Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) OW EW 16.63 15.00 16.00 7 2.01 2.01 - 1.85 1.85 -
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) OW OW 20.62 21.00 21.00 - 1.87 1.87 - 1.87 1.87 -
Lexington Realty Trust (LXP) UW UW 9.61 9.00 10.00 11 0.94 0.94 - 0.80 0.80 -
Macerich Company (MAC) EW EW 46.16 49.00 49.00 - 3.73 3.73 - 3.73 3.73 -
Mack-Cali Realty Corp. (CLI) UW UW 20.60 18.00 18.00 - 1.83 1.83 - 1.68 1.55 -8
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) OW OW 101.28 105.00 112.00 7 6.03 6.03 - 6.23 6.22 0
Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI) UW UW 7.37 6.00 6.00 - 1.53 1.53 - 1.42 1.42 -
Prologis (PLD) OW OW 69.16 68.00 71.00 4 3.02 3.02 - 3.15 3.15 -
Public Storage Inc. (PSA) EW EW 212.52 193.00 212.00 10 10.53 10.53 - 10.87 10.87 -
Regency Centers Corp. (REG) EW OW 65.00 63.00 69.00 10 3.79 3.79 - 3.89 3.89 -
Safety, Income and Growth, Inc. (SAFE) EW OW 17.64 21.00 22.00 5 1.16 1.13 -3 1.69 1.53 -9
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) OW OW 182.12 186.00 199.00 7 12.13 12.13 - 12.50 12.50 -
SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) EW OW 92.43 97.00 100.00 3 6.60 6.60 - 6.91 6.91 -
UDR, Inc. (UDR) EW EW 43.75 39.00 44.00 13 1.94 1.94 - 2.07 2.07 -
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) EW EW 69.91 68.00 69.00 1 3.66 3.66 - 4.10 4.10 -
Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.
FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.
Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended
Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative
Barclays | U.S. REITs
4 February 2019 3
CONTENTS
THE YEAR AHEAD 2019 OUTLOOK .. 6
Executive Summary ... 6
Portfolio Positioning, Subsector Views & Ratings Changes . 10
Valuation Summary15
2018: YEAR IN REVIEW .......... 19
Implications for 2019 ......... 19
REITs Underperformed in 2018 ... 19
2019 OUTLOOK ........... 28
2019 Outlook: Key Catalysts, Debates and Concerns ........... 28
Late Cycle Implications ...... 28
Capital Market Outlook ...... 31
Balance Sheet Efficiency .... 36
Implications of Rising Interest Rates – 2019 Update . 41
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING .... 51
Multifamily (Upgrade to Positive) ........... 51
Office (Neutral with a Positive Tilt) ......... 61
Real Estate Services (Positive) ...... 69
Retail (Malls: Neutral / Shopping Centers: Neutral)... 72
Industrial (Positive) . 79
Small Cap Idea .......... 83
VALUATION UPDATE . 85
Barclays | U.S. REITs
4 February 2019 4
All pricing as of January 31, 2019 unless otherwise noted.。