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瑞银_公司如何应对贸易战?_全球宏观策略_2018.8.7_34页

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文本描述
Q-Series (REVISED) 7 August 2018Table of Contents
Executive Summary ... 3
Lower nominal GDP could reduce capex growth ........ 5
Equity Strategy Implications .... 6
Impact of Trade War scenario for economy and stocks ..... 9
What degree of trade tension is reflected in our baseline ..... 9
Comparing our top-down assumptions with analyst input ... 10
1. Most impacted companies ...... 12
Box 1: Trade War Analyst Survey Overview ... 12
2. Unwelcome combination of lower demand and higher costs .. 13
What our analysts are saying: sector impact of Trade War .... 15
3. Corporate response: pass on costs, cut capex, relocate ........... 18
What our analysts are saying: how companies will react to tariffs .... 20
Most negatively impacted stocks have lagged in 2018 ... 22
Most impacted global stocks: Americas, EMEA, APAC……... 25
Q-Series (REVISED) 7 August 2018Executive Summary
Rising trade tensions have been a dominant theme for global equity investors in
2018 with major impact on relative performance. Stocks identified by our analysts
as being most negatively impacted by tariffs (Figures 6 & 7) have seen valuation
de-rate relative to regional peers, especially in Asia-Pacific, but have largely not
seen EPS estimates impacted. The good news is that companies could quickly re-
rate if trade tensions ease while the risk is that earnings estimates likely do not
reflect an escalation in trade tensions so could be cut if tensions rise.
Borrowing on our equity analysts' expertise, we have conducted a deep dive
bottom-up analysis of the companies and sectors most impacted by escalating
trade tensions as a complement to our previous Q-Series report: Trade Wars –
What is the impact on growth, inflation and financial markets, which took a top-
down perspective. The results corroborate our prior findings of a meaningful
negative impact on global GDP growth, corporate revenues and capital spending
that could reduce global capex growth by 1.5%.
The companies most affected by trade disruption reside in the Consumer
Discretionary, Industrials, Technology, and Materials sectors. Those areas will face
the most intense cost pressures and are thus most likely to react; in the short term
by attempting to pass price increases on to consumers; and in the long term by
reducing capital spending or relocating production facilities.
Figure 1: Analysts see Discretionary, Tech, and Materials
cost rising most
Figure 2: Info Tech, Industrials, and Energy capex most
threatened by escalating trade frictions
Source: UBSSource: UBS
Those decisions will have broad repercussions as the 115 companies identified as
most negatively impacted by our analysts generated 8% of global revenues and
represent 4% of global market cap. The influence on buyers, suppliers, and
consumers will be far-reaching and global in nature. In particular, our regional
Equity Strategists see Europe and Asia Autos stocks facing strong headwinds while
China-facing Asia Industrials; Europe Telecom Equip and Health Care with China
competitors; and US Auto Parts, branded Consumer, and Home Improvement
retail are relatively better positioned.
040
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# of cos What percentage of your companies' cost base would be impacted
None
All
50-100%
0-50%20
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# of cos Would they review capex plans
Increase between 10-25%
Increase < 10%
Decrease < 10%
Decrease between 10-25%
Decrease50%
Stocks most impacted by trade
have de-rated vs. peers
Trade War scenario could reduce
global capex growth by 1.5%
Company Reactions: Cost pass-
through, lower capex, and
relocation of production facilities
115 exposed companies worth
8% of global revenues in 2017
Q-Series (REVISED) 7 August 2018Figure 3: Stocks most impacted by tariffs have seen P/E de-rate vs. local benchmarks but EPS fairly stable
Source: Bloomberg, UBS
That list of 115 global stocks has lagged MSCI ACWI by 1.5% in 2018. Broken
down into regional strategies, stocks in North America and APAC have lagged
local benchmarks as P/E's have de-rated while those in EMEA have performed
about in-line but with smaller EPS revisions and underperformance around major
trade announcements. The lists, summarized on pages 7 – 8, offer a menu to
choose relative under/out performers for both long-only and relative-value
investment strategies.
On an equal-weighted basis the lists of most negatively impacted stocks have
lagged benchmarks by 2% – 7% with gaps developing around the release of
tariffs on solar panel & washing machines in January, steel & aluminium in March,
and $200 bn of Chinese imports in July (Figure 18).
Figure 4: Negative tariff headlines drove underperformance of stocks most exposed to trade disruption
Source: Google Trends, Bloomberg, UBS
19.016.1
4.86.3
6.95.37.0
10.5
(9.9)
(8.5)
(1.1)
(5.9)
(14.6)
(9.7) (10.2) (8.3)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)51525
N. America
Impacted stocks
S&P 500EMEA Impacted
stocks
Eurostoxx 600APAC Impacted
stocks
MSCI APACGlobal ImpactedMSCI ACWI
P/E Change
EPS Revision
Change YTD (%)1030
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
80
85
90
95
100
105
Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18
APAC list vs MXAP
US list vs SPX
Google Tariff Searches
Relative equity return (12/31/16 =100) Google Tariff Searches
TPP Withdrawal
Steel &Aluminium
$50 bn China Goods
$200 bn China Goods
Solar & WashingMachines。