南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文
I
摘要
与玻利维亚、印度、孟加拉等国家相比，我国的农户小额贷款发展仍然处于起步阶段
随着19大的胜利召开以及我国金融业的进一步发展，我国也越来越意识到，发展农户小额
贷款对于支持农民自主创业脱贫致富、促进下岗人员二次就业、改善不同阶层的收入分配差
距及构建社会主义和谐社会有越来越重要的意义
中国农业银行股份有限公司是中国四大国有银行之一，服务“三农”走向新农村是其特
有政治使命。中央和地方政府也前后出台了一系列扶持农户小额信贷业务发展的指导政策,
希望农户小额贷款能在各地普及，支持农民自主创业脱贫致富、促进下岗人员二次就业、改
善不同阶层的收入分配差距及构建社会主义和谐社会。然而，目前农业银行农户小额信贷业
务的风险与机遇并存，信贷风险时时危及小额信贷，对其可持续发展造成了极大的危害。如
何在保证农户小额信贷业务发展的同时，又有效控制各类风险，己成为当前急需解决的问题
本文以农户小额贷款和风险管理相关理论为基础,以苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷现状
为出发点,分析苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷业务面临的风险,并对如何控制风险进行了探
讨。论文在文献梳理的基础上，结合A分行的实际情况，设立了苏州农行A分行农户小额
信贷风险评价指标，构建了三个层次的评价指标体系，并使用德尔菲法与层次分析法相结合
的方法来确定指标权重，使权重的确定更具客观性。运用所构建的风险评价指标体系对苏州
农行A分行小额农户信贷风险进行评价的结果显示，苏州农行A分行农户小贷风险总体得
分为72.73分，说明其风险水平总体可控。其中，对信贷风险水平影响较大的经营和管理能
力、财务状况这两项指标（分别占比29.028%、58.237%）得分不理想（分别为77.5475、
68.8575），导致总体得分偏低。根据评价结果，论文最后提出了防范A分行农户小额信贷
风险的对策建议，主要包括扎实做好农户的调查评定工作、关注农户“软实力”、关注家庭
主要成员财务情况、健全关联财务信息等
关键词：农户小额贷款，苏州农行，风险评价,层次分析法
苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷风险评价研究
II
ABSTRACT
Compared with Bolivia, India, Bangladesh and other countries, the development of small
loans for farmers in China is still in its infancy.With the 19 major victories and the further
deepening of our country's finance,,the Chinese government has recognized that microfinance is
playing more and more importent role in the different levels of support for local farmers,
promoting the two laid-off workers employment, entrepreneurship and the construction of socialist
harmonious society.
Agricultural Bank of china is one of the four state-owned banks, has its own political
mission.At present, the central and local governments have issued a series of policies to support
the development of microcredit, hope that these policies will be implemented everywhere to help
farmers get out of poverty, narrowing the gap between rich and poor, build more harmonious new
socialist countryside .Our bank also actively respond to the call of the government to expand
microfinance business.However, at present, the risks and opportunities of microfinance businesses
exist in agricultural and agricultural banks. Credit risk always endangers microfinance, which has
caused great harm to its sustainable development..How to ensure the development of microfinance
industry, while effectively controlling all kinds of risks, has become the first problem.
This article analyzes the risks faced by farmers' microfinance business in A branch, and
discusses how to control risk.basing on the theory of farmers' small loan and risk management,
taking the current situation of peasant household microfinance in A branch of Suzhou Agricultural
Bank as the starting point, this article Based on the literature review, combined with the actual
situation of A branch, the establishment of the Suzhou branch of ABC a microfinance risk
evaluation index, establishes three level evaluation index system, using the method of combining
analysis Delphy and AHP to determine the index weight, the weight is more objective. The result
shows that the total score of small loan risk of Suzhou branch of Agricultural Bank of China is
72.73 points, indicating that the risk level of A branch is overall controllable.The two indicators
that influence the level of credit risk, such as operation and management ability and financial
status, account for 29.028% and 58.237% respectively. The score is not ideal (77.5475 and
68.8575 respectively), which resulting in a low overall score.According to the results, this article
finally puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the risk of A branch farmers'
microfinance, mainly including doing a solid job of farmers' investigation and evaluation, paying
close attention to the soft power of farmers, paying attention to the financial situation of family
members, and perfecting related financial information.
Key words: Rural Microfinance,ABC bank Suzhou branch,Risk assessment,Risk assessment
system
南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文
III
目录
第一章 绪论 ...... 1
1.1研究背景与意义 ....... 1
1.1.1研究背景 ....... 1
1.1.2研究意义 ....... 2
1.2文献综述 . 2
1.2.1小额信贷的概念 . 2
1.2.2基于农户小额信贷风险的研究 . 3
1.2.3基于农户小额信用风险预警的研究 ......... 4
1.2.4文献述评 ....... 5
1.3研究内容与方法 ....... 6
1.3.1研究内容 ....... 6
1.3.2研究方法 ....... 6
1.3.3研究技术路线 ... 6
1.4本文的应用价值 ....... 7
第二章 商业银行农户小额信贷风险评价的相关理论 ........ 8
2.1农户小额信贷风险内涵及特征 ....... 8
2.1.1农户小额信贷风险的内涵 ..... 8
2.1.2农户小额信贷的基本特征 ..... 8
2.1.3农户小额信贷风险的基本特征10
2.2农户小额信贷风险的来源以及表现 .. 10
2.2.1农户小额信贷风险的来源 .... 10
2.2.3农户小额信贷风险的表现 .... 11
2.3信贷风险管理相关理论13
2.3.1银行负债管理相关理论 ...... 14
2.3.2资产负债综合管理理论 ...... 14
2.3.3全面风险管理理论 .......... 15
2.3.4本文的理论基础15
2.4农户小额信贷风险评价的方法 ...... 15
2.4.1专家分析法 .... 15
2.4.2风险价值法 .... 16
2.4.3多元线性判别法16
2.4.4人工神经网络 .. 17
2.4.5层次分析法 .... 17
2.4.6模糊综合评价 .. 18
2.4.7本文的评价方法选择 ........ 20
第三章 苏州农业银行A分行农户小额业务信贷风险现状 ... 21
3.1苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷业务概况 .......... 21
3.2苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷风险的表现 ........ 22
3.2.1不良贷款急剧攀升 .......... 22
3.2.2不良贷款高度集中 .......... 23
3.2.3不良贷款传导扩散 .......... 23
3.3苏州农业银行A分行农户小额信贷风险管理现状 .. 24
苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷风险评价研究
IV
3.3.1农户准入条件 .. 24
3.3.2农户授信用信体系 .......... 25
3.4 苏州农业银行A分行农户小额业务信贷风险评价中存在的问题 .. 25
3.4.1 信息不全，调查范围覆盖不全面 .......... 25
3.4.2现有评价体系主观性太强，辅助证明材料缺失 .......... 25
3.4.3担保识别方式过于简单粗放 .. 26
3.4.4过分注重农户过去的状况，忽视未来的能力27
第四章 A分行农户小额信贷风险评价指标体系的构建及应用 ........... 28
4.1农户小额信贷风险评价指标体系的构建 .......... 28
4.1.1指标体系的构建原则 ........ 28
4.1.2农户小额信贷业务风险评价指标的选取 .... 28
4.1.3指标权重的确定33
4.1.4判断矩阵的建立34
4.1.5判断矩阵的计算34
4.2中国苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷风险评价与分析37
4.2.1评价过程 ...... 37
4.2.2风险评价结果与分析 ........ 39
4.3苏州农行A分行农户小额信贷风险防范建议 ...... 41
4.3.1扎实做好农户的调查评定工作41
4.3.2关注农户“软实力” ........ 42
4.3.3关注家庭主要成员财务情况 .. 42
4.3.4健全关联财务信息 .......... 42
4.3.5扩大后台支撑力量 .......... 43
第五章 结论与展望 ........... 45
5.1研究结论45
5.2研究展望45
参考文献........ 46
致谢 ......... 48
附录A（苏州农业银行A分行农户小额信贷业务风险评价指标相对重要性调查问卷） .. 49
附录B（苏州农业银行A分行农户小额信贷业务风险评价指标调查问卷）51。