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6月南京甲级写字楼及零售地产市场报告

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文本描述
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL2
Transport, Storage and Post
Wholesale and Retail Trades
Hotels and Catering Service
FinancialIntermediation
Real Estate
Others
12%
24%
4%10%9%
41%
The Knowledge Report|2008|Nanjing Off ce and Retail Property Markets
Nanjing’s once shining history as a “capital of six dynasties” has been
a long forgotten legend behind the limelight of Shanghai. Yet on the
heels of Shanghai’s economic development, the city is re-inventing
itself, leveraging on its provincial capital status as the political and
economic center of Jiangsu Province. As commercial activities gather
steam, this has injected impetus to the City’s property market which
begins catching attention of foreign and domestic investors.
The Nanjing economy has some unique characteristics differentiating
from its peers in the Yangtze River Delta region. Although the size of
Nanjing’s economy and per capita GDP took a back seat to its peers such
as Suzhou, Hangzhou and even Wuxi, a closer look at its economic struc-
ture reveals the rapid growth in the City’s services sectors. The City’s
tertiary industry takes up a 48% share in its economy, the highest among
all 2nd-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Furthermore, the
centering of the City’s commercial activity within a highly concentrated
CBD area has manifested in a very buoyant commercial atmosphere,
underpinning development of the off ce and retail markets.
南京,作为六朝古都的传奇历史与荣耀曾经被遗忘在上海的世纪
繁荣背后。然而,紧跟上海经济发展的步伐,并凭借省会城市行
政及经济中心的地位,南京这座城市正欲重振,腾飞。商业活动
的日益活跃成为推动南京地产行业的动力;国内外的投资商也开
始对这个城市投入更多的关注
与长三角地区其他的城市相比,南京经济有其独特之处。尽管南
京经济规模和人均GDP与其同类城市,如苏州、杭州甚至无锡相
比仍然相对靠后,但对南京经济结构深入的剖析可以揭示出该城
市服务业的迅速发展。南京第三产业占国民经济比重为48%,在
长江三角洲二线城市中处于首位。此外,城市商业活动集结在高
度集中的CBD区域,形成非常活跃的商业气氛,成为写字楼及零
售地产市场发展的坚实支撑
Figure 1
GDP of Cities in Yangtze River Delta (2006)GDP (2006)
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
SHSZHZWXNBNJSXJXYZ
100 Million RMB ()
Figure 2
Nanjing GDPGDP
)(50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001200220032004200520062007
Billion RMB
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Nanjing GDP
GDP
GDP Growth Rate
GDP
Figure 3
Nanjing Per Capita GDPGDP10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2001200220032004200520062007
RMB ()
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Per Capita GDP
GDP
Growth Rate
Figure 4
Nanjing’s Tertiary Industry Growth Rate43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
2002200320042005200620070%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%Share of Tertiary Industry in GDP (LHS )Growth Rate of Tertiary Industry (RHS )
Figure 5
The Composition of Nanjing’s Tertiary Industry in 2006COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL3
The Knowledge Report|2008|Nanjing Off ce and Retail Property Markets
过去几年,南京一方面接受到上海发展辐射效应的影响,不仅如
此,另一方面其自身的繁荣,尤其是服务业的支持作用,也同样
带动了周边地区,如江苏省北部地区及安徽省部分地区的发展
服务业的振兴及活跃的消费给南京写字楼及零售物业市场注入了
持久的动力

2001年以前,南京暗淡的写字楼市场很难得到跨国公司的青睐
与其他二线城市相似,近几年来,浸于有待成熟的商业环境中的
南京写字楼市场以中端的普通楼宇为主要存量,而商住两用房更
为普遍。开发市场以本地开发商为主,而他们中的大多数,普遍
选择分割销售的投资机制。此类物业占超过95%的市场比例。分
散的产权模式阻碍提升物业管理质量成为必然的结论
南京仅有很少几栋标准甲级写字楼分布于南京CBD区域,如新街
口、鼓楼和珠江路。从地理位置上看,这三个地区距离接近,并
有地铁交通相互连接。惠于市政府政策激励的支持,今后几年,
新的CBD也将逐渐在老城区西南的河西地区形成
进入千禧年以来,南京主城区写字楼市场供应基本保持平稳状
态。2007年底,中高端写字楼存量达到390万平方米。值得注意的
是,尽管南京经济规模明显偏小,且大多数写字楼宇品质较低,
但南京中高端写字楼存量与上海甲级写字楼存量相若。然而,此
市场供给仍与市场需求大致匹配
Over the past years, Nanjing has managed not just to leverage on the
radiation effect from Shanghai. Its own prospering economy also is
built upon providing services, including those supporting production, to
other cities in North Jiangsu and East Anhui provinces. The booming
services sector and vibrant consumption have injected growing momen-
tum to the City’s off ce and retail markets in recent years.
THE OFFICE MARKET – JUMPING HIGH UP THE SKY
Nanjing’s lackluster off ce market before 2001 has drawn little attention
of foreign companies. Similar to other 2nd tier cities, not until recent
years Nanjing’s off ce market had been stocked by the mediocre qual-
ity off ce buildings amidst the immature business environment. Build-
ings for residential-commercial use are not uncommon. The market
is dominated by local developers, and strata-title sale is a popular exit
strategy for most of them, contributing over 95% of the off ce market. A
corollary of the dispersed ownership leads to diff culties upholding good
property management.
There are a few Grade A off ces and most of them are located in Nan-
jing’s CBDs as Xinjiekou, Gulou and Zhujiang Road. Geographically,
the three districts are close to each other and interlinked by metro line.
Supported by the district government’s policy incentive, Hexi area is
emerging to be a new CBD in the south of the City in the coming years.
Nanjing’s downtown off ce market maintained generally steady supply
on entering the millennium. At the end of 2007, the stock ofmid-to-
high end off ce space amounted to 3.9 million sq m. It is interesting to
note that the stock of such off ces in Nanjing is comparable to that of
Grade A off ces in Shanghai despite the signif cantly smaller size of the
Nanjing economy, though most of these off ces in Nanjing are of lower
quality. These supply nevertheless matched well with the prevailing
market demand.
Map 1
Nanjing’s Major CBDsGulouShanxi Road CBD
鼓楼-山西路 CBD
Zhujiang RoadGuangzhou Road CBD
广州路-珠江路 CBD
XinjiekouDaxinggong CBD
新街口-大行宫 CBD
Hexi CBD
河西 CBD
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL4
The Knowledge Report|2008|Nanjing Off ce and Retail Property Markets
Figure 7
Nanjing Mid-to-High End Off ce Rental1.81.81.72.0
2.12.22.5
2.72.9
3.0
3.13.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1999200020012002200320042005200620072008F2009F2010F
RMB/sq m/day
Figure 6
2003-2010 Nanjing Mid-to-High End Off ce Market Forecast
6100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
200320042005200620072008 (F)2009 (F)2010 (F)
sq m ()
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%New Supply Take-up Vacancy Rate
Currently, 44% of the mid-to-high end off ce stock is located in the
Xinjiekou area, reinforcing the traditional importance of this area as
the business hub of Nanjing. The Gulou district is another CBD, and
the presence of many government off ces there distinguishes it from
Xinjiekou. Partly boosted by the hosting of the National Games in
2005, the off ce market in Hexi area started to pick up since 2005.
The annual supply of Nanjing’s mid-to-high end off ces increased by
0.68 million sq m in 2005, 0.77 million sq m in 2006 and 0.66 million
sq m in 2007.
Based on the current available information, overall vacancy rate is
estimated to hover at a high level of over 20% before 2005 and edged
down slightly to around 15-20% in more recent years amidst stronger
demand growth.
Supported by the steady demand growth, off ce rental has been on a
rising trend since 2001, which grew particularly faster in 2006 and
2007, partly due to the improved quality of some of the new buildings.
At end of 2007, the average off ce rent reached RMB 3/sq m/day. For
Grade A off ces in good location or the newest off ce buildings, the
rent stood at RMB 4-5/sq m/day. Capital value of Grade A off ce in
the City rose notably in the recent two years as well, by an average
of 10-15% in 2007 and has surpassed RMB 20,000/sq m for the new
off ces in the CBDs. This ref ects partly the limited supply especially
in CBDs, the keen acquisition interest of investors amidst a bullish
outlook on this market, as well as the improved quality of new off ce
buildings.
目前,44%体量的中高端写字楼坐落于新街口地区,从而进一步稳固
了该地区作为南京商业中心的地位。鼓楼地区是南京另一个CBD,
省市级政府机构集中驻扎是鼓楼区别于新街口区域的特色。一定程度
上由于举办2005年全运会所带来的推动,南京河西地区写字楼市场从
2005年开始初露端倪,南京2005年中高端写字楼供给增长680,000平
方米,2006年增长770,000平方米,07年增长660,000平方米
基于相关信息,2005年前,估计南京写字楼整体市场空置率徘徊于超
过20%的高位,近几年来,益于日益旺盛的需求,空置率小幅下跌至
15%~20%
在稳定的需求增长支持下,南京写字楼租金从2001年起呈现上涨趋
势,这一定程度上是由于高品质的新写字楼项目投入市场。2006年及
2007年租金上涨更加明显。到2007年底,南京写字楼出租的平均租金
达到3元/平方米/天,而核心位置的甲级写字楼及新建写字楼项目的租
金更可达到4~5元/平方米/天。近几年,南京甲级写字楼的价格也有
显著提升,2007年平均增长10~15%,一些CBD区的新建写字楼项目
物业价格也超越了20,000元/平米。这一方面反映了南京写字楼市场供
应,尤其是在CBD区域中的稀缺性;同样也反映了乐观市场预期下,
投资商强烈的购买渴望;以及市场上日益提高的写字楼品质
Figure 8
Nanjing Mid-to-High End Off ce Market Future Supply with Project Names–100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
sq m
XinjiekouDaxinggong
Guangzhou RD.
IFC
Golden WheelNo. 9 Yangtze Road
CNK International
Huali InternationalDevelopment Mansion
Zhujiang No.1Nanjing International Plaza P1
Suliang International MansionPhoenix International
Leo MansionJinying Mansion
Central International Plaza
HPJZ Lpaza
Jin’ao Mansion
Deji Plaza P2
Greenland Plaza 3
Nanjing International Plaza P2
ZXZH Plaza
200820092010


ZhujiangRD.
Gulou–Shanxi RD.
Hexi
Shengtian MansionXinbai Garden
Greenland 2
Hongrui PlazaOlympic New Town


COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL5
The Knowledge Report|2008|Nanjing Off ce and Retail Property Markets
GRADE A DICHOTOMY
In recent years, Nanjing’s Grade A off ce market showed greater diver-
gence with the overall off ce market and thus deserves a closer look.
Owing to the immature market in the past, supply of genuine inter-
national Grade A off ces in Nanjing was very limited, and there was
vacuum in supply in many of the years.Although there were more new
supply coming onto the market after 2005, the stock of Grade A off ces is
still small, which amounts to 337,800 sq m or less than 10% of the total
stock of mid-to-high end off ces at end-2007.
Take-up in the Grade A off ce market was strong amidst the booming
services sector, estimated at around 35,000 sq m per annum in the past
three years.The strong demand against limited supply in this segment
saw vacancy rate hovering at a relatively low level of around 15% during
the period, with popular buildings in Xinjiekou such as World Trade
Center and Zhidi Plaza Building mostly staying at 2-5%.
Given the similar quality of existing Grade A off ce buildings, off ce
rental is determined mainly by location rather than the years of com-
pletion.Currently, the rental of Grade A off ces in prime location such
as Zhidi Plaza Building and World Trade Center ranges from RMB 4 to
5/sq m/day, while the capital value of quality Grade A off ces such as
Greenland Plaza Phase I was sold at over RMB20,000/sq m. The gross
yield of 6 - 7% offers reasonable return, though some investors may
demand higher return from a 2nd tier city perspective.
The construction of several mega projects in the pipeline will see more
supply in the years ahead. During 2008-2010, a total of 329,000 sq m
Grade A off ce space will be completed which almost doubles the Grade
A stock as in end-2007.The more prominent ones will be International
Financial Center in Xinjiekou area, Zhujiang No. 1 on Zhujiang Road
and Guangzhou Road area, and Greenland Plaza Phase III in Gulou dis-
trict, each has distinctly better facilities and built-quality and competing
to be the landmark in their respective districts.
FUTURE DEMAND DUO DRIVERS
Nanjing would continue to benef t from the prospering economy in the
Yangtze River Delta region. The development of its tertiary industry to
serve the hinterland (e,g, Jiangsu Province) in the Yangtze River Delta
region would generate continuous demand for off ce space. In addition,
Nanjing’s future development plan will leverage on its provincial capital
status to attract enterprises to set up regional headquarters in the City.
While most foreign investors entering China would choose to establish
their f rst foothold in Shanghai, Nanjing could potentially be the second
base for their further expansion into the Yangtze River Delta region.
Additionally, while doing business in 1st-tier cities is becoming more
costly and competitive, cities or districts with government preferential
policies would provide incentives for foreign enterprises to secure a pres-
ence. In February 2007, Nanjing government put forth measures, such
as tax and home purch ase incentives, to encourage large domestic and
foreign enterprises to set up headquarters or regional off ces in the City.
This would provide further catalyst to the growth of its Grade A off ce
market.
In 2007, 500 new foreign enterprises were set up in Nanjing. Currently
around 100 of the world’s top 500 companies have a presence in Nan-
jing, mostly in IT or electronic manufacturing industries. As the City’s
services sector continues to develop towards f nancial and professional
services, the next wave of off ce demand would come from foreign com-
panies in these sectors, which would specif cally require Grade A off ces
to elevate their corporate images.
On the other hand, for domestic enterprises having business in other
2nd tier or 3rd tier cities within the province or those from other less de-
veloped provinces, their f rst step of expansion would likely be to set up
headquarters in the provincial capital, before they grow bigger to expand
into Shanghai and even prepare to go overseas. These domestic enter-
prises would also drive demand for high-end off ces in Nanjing.
近年来,南京甲级写字楼市场与写字楼整体市场出现的显著异
同,值得深入剖析。由于以往市场的不成熟,南京真正意义的国
际标准甲级写字楼供给有限,导致多年来市场供给出现真空
2005年之后,尽管更多新供应进入市场,但甲级写字楼存量依然
很少。到2007年底,南京甲级写字楼存量为337,800平方米,占中
高端写字楼市场总体量比例小于10%
受惠于服务业快速发展,南京甲级写字楼吸纳量强劲,在过去三
年中,估计年均吸纳3.5万平方米。旺盛的需求与有限的供给驱使
南京甲级写字楼空置率在此期间处于相当低的水平,在15%上下
波动。那些坐落于新街口地区的热点写字楼,如世界贸易大厦、
置地广场的空置率则在保持在2~5%
鉴于现有甲级写字楼项目品质趋同,写字楼租金主要取决于坐落
地点而非竣工时间。目前,在顶级地段的甲级写字楼,如世界贸
易大厦、置地广场,其租金在4到5元/平方米/天左右。同样,甲级
品质写字楼的价格也达到超过20,000/平方米售价,如绿地广场一
期。尽管从二级城市的乐观前景看,一些投资者要求更高的回报
率,但6~7%的总体回报率已经提供了合理的收益
目前,几个大型项目的建造,预示着将来几年的市场供应放量
2008年至2010年间,有共329,000万平方米的甲级写字楼项目将会竣
工,这几乎是至07年底甲级写字楼市场总存量的翻番。几个突出的项
目分别是,位于新街口的国际金融中心,位于珠江路和广州路交界处
的珠江1号和位于鼓楼的绿地广场三期。每一个项目都有显著提高的
配套和品质,建成后均将成为各所在区域的地标性建筑
南京将从长三角地区经济繁荣中持续受益。第三产业的迅猛发
展,以服务长三角区域腹地(如江苏省),将带来连续不断的办
公需求。此外,未来城市发展规划立足于省会城市的定位,将吸
引各类公司在南京设立区域总部。随着大部分外国投资者进入中
国,选择上海作为其第一落脚点,南京成为其在将长三角区域深
入拓展的第二潜在根据地
另外,在一线城市的商业运营成本和竞争日益增加,那些具备政
府优惠政策的城市和地区,无疑会吸引外国企业的进驻。2007年
2月,南京政府推出优惠措施,例如税务和购房优惠,鼓励大型国
内外公司将总部或区域办事处设在南京,这可为甲级写字楼市场
的发展增添一剂催化剂
2007年,有500家外资机构入驻南京。目前,约世界100家500强企
业在南京设有办事处,主要集中在IT或电子制造产业。随着南京
的服务业逐渐向金融和专业化方向发展,这些外资企业尤其需要
借甲级写字楼来提升公司的形象,从而带动另一轮写字楼需求周
期的来临
另一方面,对于业务范围涉及省内二线或三线城市及其他欠发达
省份的内资企业,在他们成长壮大,扩张到上海甚至海外之前,
第一步扩张将很有可能是将公司总部设在省会城市。这类内资公
司也将推动南京高端写字楼的需求。。