Latam Strategy
02 August 2018
globalmarkets.bnpparibas2
Non-residents exposure to Soberanos stands at ~USD 2mn DV01: The recently-issued August
2032 remains the bond to which non-residents have the highest exposure (Chart 3) of USD 2.3mn
DV01 from USD 2.4mn DV01 in March.
In line with the decrease in non-residents’ exposure, Peru’s pension fund system has also
decreased its exposure to the curve by 10% since its peak in March, a decrease of USD 0.9mn
DV01 (Charts 1 and 2).
After non-residents, pension funds maintain the second-largest exposure to the nominal bond
market totalling USD 7.9mn DV01. Pension funds’ biggest exposure is to the August 2037 bond, at
USD 2mn DV01 (Chart 3). Local banks are more exposed to shorter tenors of the curve with their
biggest exposure being the September 23 bond.
Foreign investors’ share of Peru’s local debt
The latest central bank data on public debt holdings shows that overseas investors’ share of
public debt has fallen further this year to USD 13.9bn in May (Chart 5). As a result, their share
in domestic public debt has fallen by 3.2pp since January. Nevertheless, the level of foreign
participation in Peru’s bond market remains relatively high for Latin America.
Pension funds’ (PF) share of public debt had been increasing since September 2017. However,
their share of total domestic public debt decreased marginally in the last two prints, while non-
residents’ share have increased, both in relative and absolute value (Chart 5).
Non-residents’ holdings of public debt represents only 23% of international reserves, which
leaves Peru in a strong position in the event of large financial outflows.
Charts 5-8: Non-residents’ share of Peruvian debt
20%
40%
60%15
30
45
60
Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18
PEN
(b
n)
Non-residents holdings of public sector bonds
Non-residents holdings as a % of total debt (RHS)
Pension funds holdings as a % of total debt (RHS)
(3.5)
(1.5)
0.5
2.5
4.5
6.5
8.5
Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18
PEN
(b
n)
Non Residents Change (PEN)
Euro-clearablebond issuance
Banking institutions
8.6%
Pension funds
30.7%
Non-financial
public sector
3.0%
Others5.0%Non
residents
44.1%
Financial public
sector8.6%
Public sector bonds holdings
38%
43%
48%
53%
58%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18
Peru Bono Soberano 10Y yield (reversed)Non-residents holdings as a % of total debt (rhs)
Sources: Bloomberg LLP, BNP Paribas, BCRP (Banco Central de Reserva del Peru)
Peru’s private pension funds (AFPs)
We examined the portfolio of Peru’s private pension funds and their performance to analyse the
allocation and distribution of assets under management (AUM) over the last few years. Peru’s
private pension fund system currently holds USD 48bn (Chart 10) of assets. In July, AFPs total
assets under management increased by 0.65% m/m in PEN terms.
The two highest allocations are in government securities and foreign mutual funds, which
together represent around 65% of the total portfolio (Chart 11). Although AFPs’ total AUM
increased by 6.2% y/y (up USD 2.8bn), the holdings of foreign investments saw the biggest
increase (up 13.4% y/y), followed by those of government securities (up 8.9% y/y).
Latam Strategy
02 August 2018
globalmarkets.bnpparibas3
Charts 9-12: Pension funds’ assets under management and breakdown
7.1%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan 12Mar 13May 14Jul 15Sep 16Nov 17
Peru pension funds nominal performance y/y
Overnight rate (RHS)
42.8
48.0
30
35
40
45
50
Jan 12Mar 13May 14Jul 15Sep 16Nov 17
Total assets under management (USD bn)
Govt. securities,
23.03%
Other local assets,
5.95%
Cash, 4.73%
Corporate bonds,
11.72%
Local equity,
10.60%
Foreign funds,
41.64%
Other foreign
assets, 2.92%
41.2%
23.2%
4%
16%
28%
40%
Jan 10May 12Sep 14Jan 17
Foreign mutual share of portfolio (%)
Government securities shareof portfolio
Sources: Bloomberg LLP, BNP Paribas, BCRP (Banco Central de Reserva del Peru)
Strategy and implications
We are currently receiving rates on Soberanos 2026s, based on our Soberanos factor model.
The position has moved ~15bp in our favour and we believe there is still room to reach our 5.00%
target (Peru: upside margin for Soberanos; going long 2026s). Charts 3-4 show that pension funds
have been increasing their share of the 2026s tenor and is now the biggest stakeholder. We
believe that compared to other tenors in the long end of the curve, the bigger share from locals is
supportive of our position in case of an outflow.
In line with our Soberanos position, we currently hold a bullish position on the PEN currency
triggered by our BEER model (Latam FX Strategy: BEER model triggers long PEN). We forecast
PEN at 3.20 by the end of this year, while our FEER model points to a fair value of 3.07 in the
long term, also supportive of our position (LATAM FX Quarterly: FEER model update).
Legal Notice
This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies (collectively
“BNPP”); it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with
sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK
Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), non-
independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II. It
has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research, and is not
subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
The content in this document/communication may also contain “Research” as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules. If the
document/communication contains Research, it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and
have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and
therefore not required to pay for Research under MiFID II. Please note that it is your firm’s responsibility to ensure that you do not view or
use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, except
where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.
STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.
This document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for, and is directed at, (a) Professional Clients and Eligible
Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), and (b) where relevant, persons who
have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005, and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated (together “Relevant Persons”) under the regulations of any
relevant jurisdiction. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with
Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.
Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.
The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, but there
is no guarantee of the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been
independently verified by BNPP or by any person.None of BNPP, any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members, directors, officers,
agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the
accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as
such.
This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial
instrument, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract or investment
decision. To the extent that any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP, such transaction will be entered into upon
such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.
Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or
taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient, are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of
any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. In providing this document, BNPP does not offer investment, financial, legal, tax or any other
type of advice to, nor has any fiduciary duties towards, recipients. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance, which
may be better or worse than prior results.Any hypothetical, past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP, as of a given
moment, on the basis of parameters, market conditions, and historical data selected by BNPP, and should not be used as guidance, in any way, of
future performance. To the fullest extent permitted by law, no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for
any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of
such losses. All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this document. Unless otherwise indicated in this
document there is no intention to update this document.
BNPP may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives
thereon. Prices, yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will
affect market pricing at any particular time, such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be
executed at any specified price.
BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document, including a long or short position in their securities and/or
options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa. BNPP, including its officers and employees may serve or have served
as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document. BNPP may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have
performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months
for any person referred to in this document. BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document.
BNPP may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the analysis on which it was based, before
the document was published. BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or
in relation to any person mentioned in this document. Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this
document prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.
This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s) will be entered into on such indicative terms. Any
indicative price(s) contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPP’s own internal models and calculation methods
and/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant. Indicative price(s) based on different models or assumptions may
yield different results. Numerous factors may affect the price(s), which may or may not be taken into account. Therefore, these indicative price(s)
may vary significantly from indicative price(s) obtained from other sources or market participants. BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for
the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods, the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used, any errors or
omissions in computing or disseminating these indicative price(s), and for any use you make of the price(s) provided. The indicative price(s) do not
represent (i) the actual terms on which a new transaction could be entered into, (ii) the actual terms on which any existing transactions could be。