GREY SKIES AND
SILVER LININGS
Asia is facing an ageing crisis. Advancements in healthcare
provisions coupled with rising wealth levels in the region, have
increased life expectancy, just as birth rates, in some Asian
countries have fallen to record lows. The result is that the
region’s senior (aged 65 and above) population will nearly triple
by 2050 to 945 million. The number of people aged 75 and
above (needing some sort of assistance in their daily lives) will
jump from 137 million to 437 million over the same period.
This massive demographic shift raises questions about
how already strained health and pension systems can be
reengineered to cope with the needs of rapidly ageing
populations. Less discussed, but no less important, are the
implications for housing. Traditionally, in many Asian societies,
the elderly have resided with their children, but trends like
smaller families and rising divorce rates have challenged this
practice. More infrastructure will need to be created for the
rising number of seniors who will be residing independently
and to cater for those in need of diferent degrees of daily
assistance and medical care.
Devising Housing solutions for Asia’s ageing population
SENIOR HOUSING OUTLOOK 2018|COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
CONFRONTING THE
‘SILVER TSUNAMI’
While countries such as Japan have grappled with an ageing
population for some time, others are just beginning to realise that
they will need to act quickly in order to address ageing-related
issues. Macau and Singapore, for example, will see their senior
populations skyrocket by 301% and 195%, respectively, by 2050.
SENIOR HOUSING OUTLOOK 2018|COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PROJECTED CHANGE IN THE POPULATION AGED 75 YEARS AND
ABOVE, RELATIVE TO PER CAPITA GDP
$0
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
$20,000$40,000$10,000$30,000
GDP per capita (2016, in real USD)
%
ch
an
ge
in
po
pu
lat
ion
ag
ed
75
an
d a
bo
ve
(2
01
7–50
)
$50,000$60,000
Vietnam
India
Thailand
ChinaSouth Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Singapore
Philippines
Source: World Bank staf estimates based on United Nations Population Division’s World Population Prospects; Oxford Economics
Note:Marker size indicates the proportion of the population aged 75 and above versus the total population as of 2050. For
comparison, Japan’s population aged 75 and above is 23% of total, while India’s senior population is 5%.
Apart from the increase in the sheer number of
seniors, often referred to as the ‘silver tsunami’,
arguably an even more worrisome trend is
the rise in the percentage of seniors in total
populations. Japan’s seniors will comprise a
staggering 36.4% of the population by 2050;
South Korea (35.3%), Hong Kong (33.9%),
Singapore (33.6%) and Thailand (29%) as
the top fve Asian economies with the highest
percentages of seniors.
One serious implication of this trend will be
the decline in the labour force as a proportion
of the total population, which will inevitably
weigh on productivity and economic growth.
Even fast-developing countries where seniors
are a smaller presence, such as India and the
Philippines, will face difculties if many of their
young people continue to work overseas and
are largely unable to attend to the immediate
needs of elderly parents.
LIFE EXPECTANCIES FOR SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES, 2017 VS 2050
Source: World Bank staf estimates based on United Nations Population Division’s World Population Prospects
Macau
SAR
Hong Kong
SAR
JapanChinaSouth
Korea
IndonesiaSingaporeIndiaThailandPhilippines
83.684.383.882.682.2
75.1
76.1
68.369.069.0
88.588.588.287.787.4
81.581.4
74.673.8
73.6
20172050
SENIOR HOUSING OUTLOOK 2018|COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL。