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Smart-phones 5 December 2018Mobile Devices
UBS Research THESIS MAP MOST FAVOREDLEAST FAVORED
Apple, LG Innotek, Mediatek, Sunny Optical, TSMC BYDe, Foxconn Tech, Fingerprint Cards, Hon Hai, Sharp, SMIC, STMicro, Texas Ins., Wistron
PIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: Will smartphone units grow in 2019E
more
-
No. With extending device lifetimes and signs of a softening environment in China, we forecast flat
smart-phone units in 2019E, below third-party estimates for the industry which still assume growth.
We see an increasing risk that, as the pace of replacement slows, we could end up seeing industry unit
growth turning negative if we don't see new innovation to stimulate demand. We assume that
foldable displays and 5G can stimulate demand to +2% in 2020E.
Q: Can ASPs rise to still drive revenue growth
more
-
Selectively. Having seen a significant step-up in ASP's in 2018 as Apple stretched the upper end of
smart-phone pricing higher, we believe it is becoming more challenging to stretch higher again. We
believe this will start to reach a ceiling again and it will become more challenging to stretch higher
without some further compelling value-added features. In the Android camp we believe the
competitive intensity is continuing to limit price increases and, as unit growth slows, we believe
competitive intensity could increase further.
Q: Which stocks should you own in a low growth environment
more
-
We continue to have a preference for Tier 1 OEMs with high stickiness (Apple / Samsung) as we
believe these will prove extremely difficult to breakdown. The components space does present
opportunities, especially in Asia, as valuations have continuously compressed YTD – in that bucket lies
Mediatek, LGI, Catcher and to some extent Sunny Optical. We also like content gainers. But we are
cautious on volumes plays, notably EMS and ODMs. We find a lack of interest in 3D Sensing from
consumers in the Android camp but it has gained good acceptance among Apple / iPhone X owners..
WHAT'S PRICED IN We believe that the market is pricing in a flat/declining smartphone market.
UBS VIEW We believe valuations for Apple/Samsung are not fully reflecting the stickiness of their base but are
worried about unit declines. We share those unit decline concerns and hence are relatively cautious on
the smart-phone semiconductor / component suppliers.
EVIDENCE We summarise the takeaways from our analysis of the latest smart-phone survey in Figure 3 below.
Figure 2: Most/Least preferred listFigure 3: Investment drivers
Source:UBSSource:UBS analysis of UBS Evidence Lab survey results
Most PreferredRatingPrice (lc)PT (lc)
AppleBuy185210
LG InnotekBuy100,500150,000
MediaTekBuy252355
Sunny OpticalBuy80128
TSMCBuy234285
Least PreferredRatingPrice (lc)PT (lc)
BYD ElectronicsSell11.78.0
Foxconn TechSell62.860.0
Fingerprint CardsSell (CBE)12.07.0
Hon HaiNeutral73.479.0
SharpSell1,6271,350
SMICNeutral (CBE)7.68.0
STMicroNeutral13.713.0
Texas InstrumentsSell101.290.0
WistronSell20.216.0
Replacement rates extending, demand
weakening
OEM Retention aids main vendors
Smartphone penetration rates v high in key markets (85-100% ex Japan) and rising in developing
markets (50% in India and Indonesia)Market saturated
UBS viewEvidence from current survey/work
Retention rate strengthens for most OEMs including Apple and Samsung.
Apple sustains mid 80s / Samsung pushed into 70s
Lack of hardware innovation
Pricing remains relatively healthy at high end
Short term demand weaker again across almost all markets. Expected replacement rate now extending in
most markets.
Some hardware innovation with 3D sensing and foldable displays may be on horizon but not
stimulating demand so far.
Consumers are willing to pay more for devices, but compared to prior UBS Evidence Lab surveys the
extent of this has started to ease.
Valuation looks more interesting hereShare prices have come down and we believe the stock market is now pricing in a declining smart-phone
market.
New device launches will drive consumer demandSurvey is not particularly supportive for new device launches but is supportive for iPhone ASP.
Smart-phones 5 December 2018Mobile Devices UBS Research
OUR THESIS IN PICTURES (1) return
Next 12-month purchasing intentions weak in all
markets. We found just 41% of consumers planning to
upgrade in the next 12-months compared to 46% last
year. It is at the lowest level we have ever seen in Q4.
This is because despite the average age of handsets
increasing with the base now 3 months older than it was
3 years ago excluding China…
…consumers are planning to upgrade less frequently in
the future. We see expected handset lifetimes increasing
by c2 months (ex. China) from last year.
India the one region providing some support with
improving purchasing intent over the next 12-months
Sources for exhibits above: UBS Evidence lab, UBS Research
44
% 45%0%
37
%%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
USUKChinaGermanyJapan2014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q4
12-month forward smart-phone purchase intent slows
1.5 1.5
0.9
1.6
1.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
USUKChinaGermanyJapan
2015Q42016Q22016Q42017Q22017Q42018Q22018Q4
Average age (years) of smart-phones in the consumer base
2.2 2.3
1.4
2.6
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
USUKChinaGermanyJapan
2015-Q42016-Q22016-Q42017-Q22017-Q42018-Q22018-Q4
Expected frequency of handset replacement (years)
35%
24% 25%
28%
36%
43%
26% 26% 29%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Apr-16Oct-16Apr-17Oct-17Oct-18
Whole MarketSmart-phone Owners
% of India consumers next 12-month smart-phone purchase intent
Smart-phones 5 December 2018Mobile Devices UBS Research
OUR THESIS IN PICTURES (2) return
With less than 35% of consumers willing to spend more,
we believe the market is vulnerable to US$ appreciation
against EM currencies, as well as possible tariffs
Bottom-up Apple purchasing intent by model from
survey results supports our +5% ASP growth assumption
in FY18E even as mix heads to older devices…
…but overall iPhone purchase intent is not supportive
and confirms we will likely see unit declines for Apple in
FY19E
Net importance of FaceID remains low. It has a good
response from those using it (iPhone owners) but hasn't
risen that quickly in perception in the wider market,
unlike in-display fingerprint. A potential headwind to 3D
sensing suppliers
Sources for exhibits above: UBS Evidence lab, UBS Research
32
%
56
%%
36
%
53
%%
33
%
56
%%
30
%
56
%%
34
%
53
%%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Spend MoreSpend the sameSpend Less
Oct-16Apr-17Oct-17Apr-18Oct-18
17%
6%
17%
5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
FY18FY19E
Survey impliedActual / UBSe
Implied Apple ASP growth from bottom-up model purchasing
22
%% 21
% 21%% 18% 22
%%%%
34
%
26
% 31
%
29
%
23
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1Oc
t'1USUKChina
iPhone next 12-month purchase intent
-4%
8%
69%
21%
43%
60%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
OverallApple OwnersiPhone X owners
Face IDIn-display fingerprint
Net importance of new features with consumers。