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iii
Preface
The U.S. Navy is interested in developing autonomous capabilities to execute tasks
that are increasingly hazardous for humans and to enhance warfighting capabilities.
This report focuses on two Navy platform classes—unmanned undersea vehicles and
unmanned surface vehicles—and explores the potential for increasing the numbers
and capabilities of autonomous Navy systems. The report examines both the techno-
logical development of such systems and the warfighting requirements of the Navy.
The authors analyze the following four areas: the current state of the art of autono-
mous technology, current kill chains and capabilities, future fleet architecture and its
autonomous capabilities, and autonomy in alternative concepts of operation.
This research was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research and conducted
within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by
the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Com-
mands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence
Community.
For more information on the RAND Acquisition and Technology Policy Center,
see /nsrd/ndri/centers/atp or contact the director (contact information is
provided on the webpage).
v
Contents
Preface .iii
Figures and Tables ...........vii
Summary ..........ix
Acknowledgments ..........xiii
Abbreviations .....xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction .......1
Purpose ..2
Approach and Report Organization .....2
CHAPTER TWO
The State of the Art of Autonomous Technology ...........5
What Is Autonomy 5
Analytic Approach8
Algorithms.........8
Payloads 14
Platforms ..........20
Conclusions......27
CHAPTER THREE
Autonomy in Existing Kill Chains ...29
Mine Countermeasures ......30
Denied-Area Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance ..........34
Operational Deception .......37
Common Mission Area Themes .......40
CHAPTER FOUR
Future Fleet Architecture and Its Autonomous Capabilities ........41
Key Elements Among the Future Fleet Design Architectures ...........41
Requirements for Autonomous Operations in the Future Fleet Design Architectures ......42
Conclusions .......46。