About MGI
CopyrightMcKinsey & Company 2018CopyrightMcKinsey & Company 2019
Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought
to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the
business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, MGI aims
to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts
and insights on which to base management and policy decisions.
MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management,
employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business
leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic
industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces
affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have
covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses
on six themes: productivity and growth, natural resources, labor markets,
the evolution of global fnancial markets, the economic impact of technology
and innovation, and urbanization. Recent reports have assessed the
digital economy, the impact of AI and automation on employment, income
inequality, the productivity puzzle, the economic benefts of tackling gender
inequality, a new era of global competition, Chinese innovation, and digital and
fnancial globalization.
MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company senior partners: JacquesBughin,
JonathanWoetzel, and JamesManyika, who also serves as the chairman
of MGI. MichaelChui, SusanLund, AnuMadgavkar, JanMischke,
SreeRamaswamy, and JaanaRemes are MGI partners, and MekalaKrishnan
and JeongminSeong are MGI senior fellows.
Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows,
and include consultants from McKinsey offces around the world. These
teams draw on McKinsey’s global network of partners and industry and
management experts. The MGI Council, which includes leaders from
McKinsey offces around the world and the Firm’s sector practices,
includes MichaelBirshan, AndrsCadena, SandrineDevillard, AndrDua,
KweilinEllingrud, TarekElmasry, KatyGeorge, RajatGupta, EricHazan,
AchaLeke, ScottNyquist, GaryPinkus, SvenSmit, OliverTonby, and
EckartWindhagen. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates,
advise MGI research.
The partners of McKinsey fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any
business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI
and to download reports, please visit mckinsey/mgi.
Susan Lund | Washington, DC
James Manyika | San Francisco
Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai
Jacques Bughin | Brussels
Mekala Krishnan | Boston
Jeongmin Seong | Shanghai
Mac Muir | Atlanta
JANUARY 2019
GLOBALIZATION IN TRANSITION:
THE FUTURE OF TRADE AND
VALUE CHAINS
PREFACE
In 2014, the McKinsey Global Institute proposed a new way of looking at globalization: by
measuring global fows of goods, services, fnance, and people. In 2016, we returned to
the topic, highlighting the contrast between fattening trade in physical goods and soaring
cross-border data fows. That report described a more digital form of globalization that has
opened the door to new participants, created new sources of value, and introduced new
opportunities and risks.*1
Today we take another look at how globalization is evolving, this time viewing it through the
lens of global value chains. Trade patterns are shaped by myriad business decisions within
these production networks, not by the simple act of one country choosing to buy less from
another. Using MGI’s signature “micro-to-macro” approach, we look at how companies
participating in 23 different industry value chains are responding to global opportunities and
pressures. We examine both goods-producing and service industries across 43 countries.
Our work also draws on interviews with dozens of industry experts, proprietary industry
data, and national accounts trade data. In addition to extending our previous work on global
fows and digital globalization, this report builds on a multiyear body of research by MGI
on topics that include manufacturing, corporate competition, global consumption trends,
technology, and automation as well as economic and labor market trends in specifc regions
of the world.
This research was led by SusanLund, an MGI partner based in Washington, DC;
JamesManyika, MGI’s chairman, based in SanFrancisco; JonathanWoetzel, an
MGI director based in Shanghai; JacquesBughin, an MGI director based in Brussels;
MekalaKrishnan, an MGI senior fellow based in Boston; and JeongminSeong, an MGI
senior fellow based in Shanghai. The project team, led by MacMuir, included ColinBritton,
JoanaCarreiro, DianaGoldshtein, RensynHooi, SophieJewsbury, SueJia, PrakritiMishra,
CarlosMolina, KhalidNadiri, SimisolaOyesanya, JoseMariaQuiros, and SauravTripathy.
We are also grateful to MGI partner SreeRamaswamy for his thoughtful comments on the
manuscript and to DileepBirur, JeffreyCondon, BadriGopalakrishnan, VivienSinger, and
SoyokoUmeno ofMcKinsey’s Economics Research team.
Our academic advisers challenged our thinking and added new insights. We extend sincere
thanks to MatthewJ.Slaughter, the Paul Danos Dean of the Tuck School of Business and
the Earl C. Daum 1924 Professor of International Business at Dartmouth; MichaelSpence,
Nobel laureate and William R. Berkley Professor in Economics and Business at the NYU
Stern School of Business; and LauraTyson, distinguished professor at the Haas School of
Business, University of California, Berkeley.
For their invaluable discussions and insights, many thanks go to: RichardBaldwin of the
Graduate Institute, Geneva; CarolCorrado of the ConferenceBoard; JonathanHaskel of
the Imperial College Business School; MichaelMandel of the Progressive Policy Institute;
SebastienMiroudot of the OECD; HalVarian of Google; StianWestlake of Nesta; and
WilkieWou ofEsquel. We are very grateful for the collaboration and discussions we had with
MichaelMann, KristyHowell, JamesFetzner, and RyanNoonan of theBureau of Economic
* See
Global fows in a digital age: How trade, fnance, people, and data connect the world economy
, McKinsey
Global Institute, April 2014, and
Digital globalization: The new era of global fows
, McKinsey Global Institute,
February 2016.。