避免断更，请加微信501863613Economic Research
Global Data Watch
January 18, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Bruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan
David Hensley(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan
Joseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan
twotypes of shocks that need to be monitored alongside our
tracking of economic activity indicators.
Bank credit shock.Corporate debt is elevated andthe US
and global expansion would be threatened if credit access
was materially curtailed. A tightening in credit magnified
the impact of commodity price declines and terms of trade
losses during the 2015-16 global growth slowdown. Alt-
hough current creditspreads have widened and leveraged
loan markets look stretched, banklending continues to ex-
pand and standards continue to ease in the DM(Figures 1
and 2). That this has been ongoing for over a year with
bank reservesin decline belies theoften expressed concern
around quantitative tightening(see “US: The tangled tale of
the Fed balance sheet” in this GDW). The winding down of
the Fed balance sheet is of second-order importance to its
interest rate policy,which is now on hold. With borrowing
rates moving down of lateand lending standards still favor-
able,a bank credit squeeze seems unlikely.
Political/geopolitical shocks.The bigger wild card for the
outlook relates to politics and geopolitical tensions. Some
of these have moderated as oil supply held up after the im-
position of sanctions on Iran and the US refrained from
raising China tariffs at the start of the year. But there are
significant areas of concern. The immediate focus is onthe
building drag from the US government shutdown and Brex-
it uncertainties. However, the greatest risks relate to a
reescalation of the global trade-war as the NAFTA deal
makes it way through the US Congress, the US Section 232
report on auto trade is published, and US-China trade nego-
tiators try and bridge the large gap between their respective
positions.
Chinese trade flows plummet
Last week, we made significant downward forecast revisions
in Europe along with a shutdown-related change in the US.
Our China team has said they see downside forecast risk as
well, though they want to see the December activity data,
most of which are out Monday, before deciding whether to
make changes. The focus on those data was heightened by this
week’s international trade release, which revealed a second
consecutive monthly slide in both exports and imports in De-
cember. The cumulative drop in these two months for exports
was 10% and for imports was 23%.
The trade data raise questions both about the state of global
demandand domestic demand in China. Exports fell across
EM Asia during 4Q, consistent with our tracking of global IP
growth, which has slipped to only 1.5%-2%ar. However, the
declines were much more modest for EM Asia ex China
(“EMAX”) than for China (Figure 3). Furthermore, the
EMAX decline was dominated by shipments to China. It is
tempting to blame China’s underperformance on higher US
tariffs though the implied lags between the imposition of the
tariffs and the hit to exports appear long. Likewise, it seems
too early for manufacturers to be making large-scale shifts
away from China.
The collapse in China’s imports is even more puzzling. Some
of this likely reflects the fact that half of China’s imports are
meant for processing and re-export. The remainder presuma-
bly is tied to domestic demand. Through November, China’s
retail sales and FAI were expanding at positive albeit subdued
rates. These increases in final goods demand are inconsistent
with the collapse in imports that already was in train in No-
vember. This backdrop points to a likely inventory adjustment
that is falling mainly on imports rather than domestic produc-
tion. Perhaps the increased level of uncertainty about the eco-
nomic outlook, linked to the trade war, and the resumption of
declines in industrial profits has prompted firms to retrench in
this way. We will know more after we see the remainder of
China’s December activity data on Monday.
Brexit deal on life support
With the House of Commons rejecting the EU withdrawal
agreement by the largestmargin on record it will be a long
journey back for PM May to secure support for a deal. With
May surviving a motion of no-confidence, the option of a
general election to put Brexit under new management has
been set aside. There also does not appear to bea majority for
a second referendum. PM May will likely return to Brussels to
seek changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and secure little.
However, the EU does appear willing to grant an extension to
Article 50 if requested, possibly extending into 2H19. Against
this backdrop, the House looks likely to pass legislation forc-
ing the PM to seek an extension to Article 50 rather than al-
lowing “no deal” to occur. We continue to think the single
-40
-2020
40
60
20122013201420152016201720182019
%3m, saar; China adj for LNY vol; est for EMAX in Dec 18
Figure 3: EM Asia merchandise exports
Source: J.P. Morgan
EMAX
ChinaEconomic Research
Global Data Watch
January 18, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Bruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan
David Hensley(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan
Joseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan
most likely path is May ultimately secures support for a deal
but this might take longer than we had previously thought.
Euro area call faces key test with PMI
With the Euro area economy experiencing significant disrup-
tions, the big question concerns the pace of underlying
growth. Our expectation is for growth to rebound toa 1.75%
pace and that next week’s flash PMI for January will increase
by around 1pt, largely due to a partial rebound in France as
the “yellow vest” protests die down. A bounce-back in Ger-
man autos, signaled by the gradual recovery in sales and order
backlogs, also should support the PMI (Figure 4).
The flash PMI will be published on the morning of next
week’s ECB policy meeting and could have a last-minute
impact on the policy statement. But, if the PMI does not drop,
we would expect the ECB to play for time before considering
any changes to its forward guidance. Draghi could task tech-
nical committees to work on options for the TLTROs, which
would tee up an announcement in March of a two-year LTRO
offered in June. This would be aimed at smoothing the
TLTRO roll-down with the new Net Stable Funding Ratio
requirements in mind and hence would not have any lending
incentive built in. If growth disappoints, the motivation for
new liquidity operations could change.
BOJ to cut and hold
The BoJ also meets next week. The Bank will release its new
Outlook Report and we look for officials to revise down their
inflation forecast for FY19 yet again, with the targeted rate
(CPI ex fresh food, adjusting for the upcoming VAT hike and
the shift to free education) now about 1.0%, down from the
previous1.4%. Our own recent revisions went substantially
further. However, as we’ve learned in recent years, so long as
officials retain their view that the economic expansion will
continue at an above-trend pace, they areunlikely to change
their policy stance. As we noted last week, this non-response
is likely contributing to the persistently low level of inflation
expectations.
Argentina starts 2019 on the right foot
Argentina kicked off the election year with stable financial
markets, declining inflation and upsiderisks to our activity
projections, amid the unfolding fiscal and current account
adjustments. Financial stability and an improving economy
are needed to ensure policy continuity in a likely highly polar-
ized environment going into October’s presidential election.
On this front, the credit premium compression seen year-to-
date has allowed the central bank to purchase reserves and
ease monetary conditions as the exchange rate pierced the
floor of the non-intervention zone. Inflation has decelerated,
limiting the decline in real disposable income. Yet, regulated
prices shouldprevent further slowingin 1H19, which merits a
cautious monetary approach. We hold to our base case scenar-
io for sequential activity growth to resume in 2Q19 although
the recovery could come sooner than expected.
EM central banks meet expectations
This week’s central bank meetings in Turkey, South Africa
and Indonesia largely met expectations. All three banks are
seeing positive developments on inflation and relief from
global market pressures; however, they are parsing these de-
velopments somewhat differently according to their specific
situations. The CBRT left its policy rate unchanged and main-
tained its tightening bias, easing worries about political pres-
sure for lower rates ahead of the March 31 local elections. We
think the bank will remain focused on building credibility in
1H19. South Africa’s MPC adopted a more dovish tone with a
substantial downward revision to its inflation forecast just two
months after it hiked the policy rate. The inflation revisions
were largely tied to expectations for lower oil prices and a less
depreciated rand. The SARB now sees just one further interest
rate hike this year, in line with our call.
Bank Indonesiaalso left rates on hold this week. The firming
in IDR and lower oil prices have aided BI’s efforts on finan-
cial stability and managing the current account deficit to no
more than 3% of GDP. We maintain our forecast for a 25bp
hikes in July and December, following the Fed. While India’s
central bank does not meet until February, we’d note that this
week’s December inflation release diminished the probability
of an expected rate cut next month. Falling food prices have
produced a dramatic decline in inflation to just 2.2%oya, even
as core inflation surged to almost 6%oya (see: “India in 2019:
still waters run deep). Additionally, fiscal risks continue to
rise as the government contemplates a fiscal package for
farmers. All this will likely keep the MPC cautious. We still
expect a 25bp rate cut 1H19 but the odds of whether this oc-
curs in February (our call) or April have become a toss-up.
Editor:Gabriel de Kock (1-212) 622-6718 gabriel.s.dekock@jpmorgan
95
105
115
125
135
20152016201720182019
1Q15 = 100
Figure 4: German manufacturing orders backlog
Source: Destatis, J.P. Morgan
Excluding
autos
AutosEconomic Research
Global economic outlook sum-
mary
January 18, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan
Carlton Strong(1-212) 834-5612
carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan
Joseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan
Global economic outlook summary
Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices
% over a year ago% over previous period, saar % over a year ago
2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19
United States2.92.31.53.42.52.02.01.81.52.62.21.31.5
Canada2.1
2.1
1.7
2.0
2.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.1
Latin America1.31.82.21.8-0.72.13.43.02.43.54.14.13.8
Argentina-2.7
-1.5
2.6
-2.7
-10.0
-0.1
6.0
4.0
3.0
27.1
47.3
49.3
28.5
Brazil1.22.32.23.10.62.63.23.22.03.34.14.13.9
Chile3.9
3.5
3.0
1.1
3.5
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.8
2.2
2.8
3.3
3.5
Colombia2.73.13.10.93.02.84.53.53.53.23.33.53.7
Ecuador1.1
-0.4
-0.8
3.6
-2.5
-1.5
1.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.8
0.0
0.3
0.5
Mexico2.01.71.73.4-0.51.52.01.82.04.64.84.84.0
Peru4.0
3.9
3.6
-3.1
3.0
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
0.9
2.42.6
2.7
Uruguay2.11.91.9-0.10.52.03.04.01.07.37.47.87.2
Venezuela-10.0
…
1.0
2.0
…
…
…
…
28250
600000
..
..
Asia/Pacific4.8↓4.6
4.5
3.6
4.9
4.5↓4.5
5.0
3.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Japan0.80.9↓0.6-2.52.5↓1.2↓0.8↓2.5-3.50.60.90.40.3
Australia3.0
2.7
2.7
1.0
3.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
3.0
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.2
New Zealand2.82.62.61.32.62.92.62.52.41.51.81.31.6
EM Asia6.0
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.8
5.8
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
China6.66.26.16.06.16.16.06.36.21.82.22.42.2
India7.3
7.2
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.6
7.1
7.5
7.7
4.8
2.7
3.7
4.5
Ex China/India3.73.43.52.93.33.53.43.63.72.12.01.81.9
Hong Kong3.3
2.7
2.6
0.4
2.0
4.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.1
2.6
2.8
3.0
Indonesia5.14.84.94.84.74.74.74.74.83.33.23.02.8
Korea2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.5
Malaysia4.74.44.36.74.04.54.34.34.31.30.31.31.8
Philippines6.2
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.7
6.1
6.1
5.7
6.1
4.8
5.9
3.3
2.1
Singapore3.32.43.03.01.63.01.02.83.00.30.91.41.6
Taiwan2.7
1.9
2.0
1.5
2.7
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.7
0.5
0.3
1.6
Thailand4.23.33.8-0.14.52.83.54.54.51.31.11.21.3
Western Europe1.8
1.5
1.7
0.9
0.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.2
Euro area1.81.41.70.60.81.81.81.51.81.71.91.11.0
Germany1.5
1.4
1.7
-0.8
0.3
2.8
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.3
France1.51.11.71.30.51.01.31.51.82.12.21.21.2
Italy0.9
0.4
0.9
-0.5
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.5
0.8
0.8
Spain2.52.21.92.22.52.32.32.02.01.81.80.70.8
Norway2.42.32.11.12.82.52.52.32.32.4
3.4
2.8
1.7
Sweden2.41.91.8-0.93.32.02.02.02.01.92.12.02.3
United Kingdom1.4
1.5
1.8
2.5
1.0
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.9
EMEA EM2.81.82.41.20.6↓0.9↑2.43.23.34.67.17.05.5
Czech Republic2.72.62.91.62.03.32.82.82.92.3
2.2
2.7
2.3
Hungary4.83.52.84.92.43.53.43.23.02.73.43.32.5
Israel3.2
3.7
3.4
2.1
2.0
3.8
4.1
4.2
3.6
0.7
1.2
1.0
1.4
Poland5.13.83.57.02.73.53.53.53.51.71.62.32.5
Romania4.2
2.7
1.4
7.8
0.5
1.7
1.7
2.4
3.3
5.3
3.6
2.9↑3.5↑
Russia1.71.41.60.41.50.02.02.52.32.54.05.44.9
South Africa0.6
1.3
1.1
2.2
1.6↓0.8↑1.3
1.1
1.2
4.5
5.0
5.2
5.2
Turkey3.30.23.5-4.3-3.9-1.62.05.05.812.822.419.012.4
Global3.22.92.72.62.72.82.9↓3.12.62.4
2.5
2.1
2.0
Developed markets2.21.8↓1.51.72.01.81.81.81.12.12.01.31.3
Emerging markets4.74.44.54.23.84.34.74.94.82.8
3.2
3.4
3.1
Global —PPP weighted3.83.43.33.33.23.33.53.63.32.62.82.62.4
Note: For some emerging economies seasonally adjusted GDP data are estimated by J.P. Morgan.Bold denotes changes from last edition of Global Data Watch, with arrows show-
ing the direction of changes. Underline indicates beginning of J.P. Morgan forecasts.Unless noted, concurrent nominal GDP weights calculated with current FX rates are used in
computing our global and regional aggregates.RegionalCPI aggregatesexcludeArgentina, Ecuador and Venezuela.Regional GDP aggregates exclude Venezuela. Forecasts for
Argentina are based on JPMorgan’s estimates of CPI.Source: J.P. Morgan。