注册 登陆| 注册 |
登陆 |
|
|
|
| 相关分类 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
| 推荐专题下载 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
| 资料简介 | |
| Global Banks 2 November 2018Contents OUR THESIS IN PICTURES ........ 4 Executive summary .. 5 Sentiment fading but still positive .... 5 Views on fundamentals ....... 6 Views on valuations . 8 Investment strategy . 8 UBS in-house banking survey ....... 15 Sentiment fading again but still positive ..... 15 Positive outlook for developed markets ...... 15 EM outlook – sentiment deteriorating ........ 16 Macro views ........... 18 Macroeconomic issues still dominate ......... 18 Political risk18 Inflation and interest rates . 18 Regulatory and policy issues ........... 18 Competition .......... 19 Bad debts .. 19 Emerging market currency depreciation ..... 19 Euro-area sovereign debt uncertainties ...... 19 Views on fundamentals ..... 20 Loan growth expectations .. 20 NIM outlook .......... 21 Asset quality .......... 24 Earnings outlook .... 25 Trade war impact . 26 Potential fundamental implications26 Potential earnings impact ... 27 Views on valuations ........... 28 An under-performing year . 28 Fair value or cheap ........... 28 Philip Finch Strategist philip.finch@ubs +44-20-7568 3456 Giovanna Rosa Associate Analyst giovanna.rosa@ubs +55-11-3513 6568 Jason Napier, CFA Analyst jason.napier@ubs +44-20-7568 5037 Saul Martinez Analyst saul.martinez@ubs +1-212-713 2491 Brennan Hawken, CPA Analyst brennan.hawken@ubs +1-212-713 9439 Brock Vandervliet Analyst brock.vandervliet@ubs +1-212-713 2382 Daniele Brupbacher Analyst daniele.brupbacher@ubs +41-44-239 1493 Shinichi Ina Analyst shinichi.ina@ubs +81-3-5208 6227 May Yan Analyst may.yan@ubs +852-2971 7157 Bob Kommers Analyst bob.kommers@ubs +44-20-7567 6980 Global Banks 2 November 2018Global Banks UBS Research THESIS MAP MOST FAVOURED LEAST FAVOURED BB, BAP, CASA, Huntington, ING, JPM, Lloyds, Northern Trust, Sberbank, SMFG Allied, Handelsbanken, HSBC, NAB, StandChartered, BSAC, Texas,VTB, Westpac, YES PIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: How could a trade war impact banks With the US-China trade war escalating, and our macro team estimating a potential 108bp hit to global growth (click here), our UBS 3Q18 in-house banking survey looks at what this could mean for banks. According to our survey, 50% of respondents believe the impact for banks would be indirect via weaker loan growth arising from lower GDP growth while 22% expect it to be via higher cost of equity arising from risk aversion. Our survey also indicates that the direct impact on bank earnings is likely to be low-to-moderate (69%) or moderate (28%) with only 3% expecting a moderately high impact (Hungary). Q: Where are we in the cycle The flatter yield curve, sluggish lending and muted capital markets activities suggest that US banks are late in the cycle. Early expectations of the tax reform's second order effect appear to be too optimistic with loan growth for the top 25 banks running at only 1.8%, and as highlighted in our downgrade of M&A boutiques on cyclical concerns. Elsewhere, with macro growth continuing to disappoint, the rate cycle in Eurozone is being pushed out, while in EM, weaker economic surprise indices alongside deleveraging in China suggest the banking sector has yet to the start of a new cycle. (click here). Q: Is M&A set to pick-up In Europe, we expect consolidation to come (click here), potentially driven by weak revenues, cost pressure, rising cost of risks and/or even banks missing targets. We believe European regulators are also supportive of consolidation, even across borders. In the US, the raising of the SIFI threshold to US$250bn (click here), together with the build-up of capital by some banks (notably mid-cap names), and in Japan suggests we could see a pick-up in bank acquisitions (click here). WHAT'S PRICED IN Current valuations suggest the market is expecting a c14% fall in earnings. Yet, in the current 3Q18 reporting season, we have started to see the return of positive earnings momentum especially for banks in developed markets. UBS VIEW Following the recent sell-off, we think global banks' risk/reward profile is attractive: We have preference for DM over EM being overweight banks in Japan and neutral those in the US and Europe. The pick-up in earnings momentum has been notable in DM with 2018 EPS upgrade/downgrade ratio at 1.6x while that for EM has been at 0.75x. EVIDENCE EM banks: where are we in the cycle Source: UBS estimates India Indonesia Thailand Brazil Peru Chile Colombia Czech Rep Mexico Poland South Africa Russia Turkey China Hungary Hong Kong Philippines Singapore Early Late Malaysia Korea Global Banks 2 November 2018Global Banks UBS Research OUR THESIS IN PICTURES return Our latest in-house banking survey shows sentiment towards the banking sector fading, although still positively skewed Although UBS banks analysts have a net positive view on the banking outlook, it has fallen in the last quarters Earnings momentum has started to pick-up with the ratio of earnings upgrades to downgrades frequency at 1.2x over the past month Based on consensus 1-yr forward PE estimates, global banks are now trading at 2 SD below its historical mean Sources for exhibits above: UBS, UBS Evidence Lab, I/B/E/S MSCI Aggregates, Datastream 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Very cautiousSlightly cautious NeutralSlightly bullishVery bullish Currently view on the outlook for bank sector Jun-2018Latest -30 -20 -101030 Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Sep -20De c-2 01Ma r-2 01Jun -20Lat est UBS net view on the banking outlook PositiveNegativeNet positive 1.6 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 DMEMGlobal Frequency of changes to 2018 EPS estimates 8.6 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 No v-1Jan -14 Ma r-1Ma y-1Jul -14 Sep -14 No v-1Jan -15 Ma r-1Ma y-1Jul -15 Sep -15 No v-1Jan -16 Ma r-1Ma y-1Jul -16 Sep -16 No v-1Jan -17 Ma r-1Ma y-1Jul -17 Sep -17 No v-1Jan -18 Ma r-1Ma y-1Jul -18 Sep -18 Global banks: consensus 1-yr forward PE estimates Current (9.10)Average (10.54)+2SD-2SD。 |
版权所有：企业管理资源网 © 2005-2019 客服电话：(+86 0411)-88895936 15566933248 Fax：0411-88895936 E-mail:76395700@qq.com(假日/晚上：15566933248) QQ：76395700 605057861 辽ICP备14017218号-1 辽公网安备 21021102000022号
|
财贸金融下载区最新下载 > 投资金融 > 
