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巴黎银行_中国_投资策略_中国政府债券获利回吐_20181228_9页

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FOCUS 28/12/2018 2
On bonds, we think bond investors might come under
pressure in H1 2019 from both a larger supply of
Chinese government and local-government bonds and a
stabilisation of credit expansion specifically from
corporate bond issuance and household loans (Figure 3).
We think turbulence in the bond market in December
2018 is also a bad sign. Therefore, we consider taking
profit on our recommendation of buying 10-year CGB
(entry 3.65%, now at 3.25%), and propose to wait for a
better time to enter again into the position.
The coming bond supply expansion is likely to nudge the
longer-end rates higher (Figure 4). In particular, the 5-
year NDIRS is now at a narrow spread of only 30bp
against the 1-year NDIRS. A 1y/5y steepener might be a
good trade to express this view next year (Figure 1).
On FX, we note that depreciation pressure on the yuan
has significantly lessened in the forward and options
markets (Figure 7), following the tumble on the US stock
market in December 2018 and the Fed’s dovish stance.
Over the next few months, we think markets may price in
the convergence of US and China monetary policy,
which should help push the USDCNH down to 6.70 (for
more, please see Global Outlook).
While we are optimistic on the yuan, we note that euro
weakness following deteriorating eurozone economic
data may serve as a hurdle for yuan appreciation. We
thus prefer to wait for further sell-offs in the US stock
market, and a more concrete weak USD trend possibly
from a more cautious stance by the Fed, before shorting
USDCNH. In this event, in our view, euro weakness
would no longer be an obstacle for the CNY to rise
against USD.
Prospects of a stronger yuan have seen falls in the
USDCNH forward and CCS curves. Currently, the spread
between the 1-year NCD and CCS is at a year-to-date
wide of close to 50bp. This presents us with an
opportunity to buy 1-year NCDs and pay 1-year
USDCNH CCS, earning carry while being hedged on FX
or interest rate risks.
H1 2019 prospects: Stronger yuan, uncertain rates
EMERGING MARKETS
Fig. 6: Return of carry trade opportunity for overseas
investors in China’s interbank bond market
Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas。