– 2 – now was seriously contemplated, but fortunately rejected. Another alternative was to negotiate a wayout. We left.Since then, wars have become even more about perceptions: Outcomes increasingly depend onwhose story wins. During these same years, I began to perceive terrorism as a new mode of confict. By 1970, therehad been enough terrorist assassinations, bombings, kidnappings, and hijackings to indicate a cleartrend. My concern was that we were again unprepared to deal with this new mode of confict.Terrorism was not a model of war that ft with America’s experience. As in Vietnam, America’senormous military power was largely, though not entirely, irrelevant. Terrorists know they cannotdefeat the United States in a conventional military contest—as the Islamic State recently learned.But terrorism subverts the conventional rules of war. Terrorists choreograph violence to create anatmosphere of fear and alarm, which, in turn, will cause people to exaggerate the threat. Terrorism isaimed at the people watching. Terrorism is theater. As terrorist violence escalated, the military was thrust into an expanding role, beginning with therescue of American hostages and leading ultimately to a global war, which continues to this day.The Role of Technology Te rise of this modernized terrorism refected both political circumstances and technologicaldevelopments—in particular, the spread of television and the deployment of communicationssatellites.How ironic—communications satellites were the topic of RAND’s frst report in 1948.3 Satellites and television gave terrorists access to a global audience. We had already seen howtelevision had a major impact on the perceptions and attitudes of the American public during thewar in Vietnam—the frst televised war. Our foes understood this.Looking back, we can see terrorists as primitive pioneers in developing tactics, and eventuallystrategies, based upon the manipulation of perceptions. Te critical role is the one played by theaudience.I recall that in the late 1970s, we looked at what weapons were coming into military arsenals thatfuture terrorists might exploit—precision-guided munitions, shoulder-fred surface-to-air missiles.We missed the biggest weapon of all—the Internet, which was then still in its infancy.Te Internet enabled terrorists to converse directly with sympathizers and supporters, andremotely inspire homegrown recruits to carry out actions wherever they are. It turned every localconfict into a global concern. We see terrorism as a physical threat. But our foes see terrorism as way to incite followers andcreate terror.The Continuing Threat Terrorism has not turned out to be the existential threat we feared in the shadow of 9/11, butcontinuing terror still threatens our democracy in a more insidious way. Te 9/11 attacks fundamentally altered our perceptions of plausibility—after 9/11, no terroristscenario could be ruled out. Te threat has transcended what we see happening to instead what wecan imagine might happen. Meanwhile, it has become harder to tell what’s real and what isn’t. 3 RAND Corporation,Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship , Santa Monica, Calif.,SM-11827, 1948, https:///pubs/special_memoranda/SM11827.html. – 3 – Terrorism also magnifes society’s general anxieties. It exacerbates worries about America’schanging demographic landscape, immigration, crime, economic displacement, America’s role in theworld, the survival of our own individual liberty. Every new alarmdeepensexisting divisions. We are today concerned about Russian interference in our domestic politics. Russian so-calledactive measures are nothing new, but have been amplifed by technological developments.Tese measures are intended to deepen our political divisions by secretly inciting all sides at thesame time. Tey erode our trust in national institutions, and weaken us as a society.Tere is a continuing theme here. Te strategic role of the people in Mao Zedong’s theory of people’s war, the role of publicopinion in the Vietnam War, the creation of fear and anxiety by terrorists, and foreign informationoperations—these are all components of contemporary confict. Military force is not obsolete, but warfare in the future will increasingly be about manipulatingperceptions—whether by hostile states or nonstate actors—fueling fear, eroding morale, fomentingdistrust. As in the case of terror, we are this form of warfare’s target—and its accomplices, its victims,and its agents.RAND research has pointed to the rising partisan polarization of national politics, whileRAND’s recent publication ofTruth Decaylooks at the diminishing role of facts and analysis inAmerican public life.4 Adding to these developments an atmosphere of unreasoning terror makes abad combination.A Nation United Cannot Be Sundered Neither border walls nor frewalls can protect a divided society that dismisses fact and submits to thetyranny of fear. Our defense must come from us—all of us as Americans—not just the Departmentsof Defense or Homeland Security.A nation united in its commitment to fundamental values—liberty, courage, a sense ofcommunity, mutual respect—cannot be sundered, cannot be conquered.How we get better at countering our foes while strengthening ourselves and our nationalinstitutions is the major challenge that we now face. Our democracy depends on it.Tere will be much more to do in the next 50 years. 4 Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich,Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts andAnalysis in American Public Life , Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-2314-RC, 2018, /t/RR2314. The RAND Corporation is a nonproft institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research andanalysis. RAND focuses on the issues that matter most, such as health, education, national security, internationalaffairs, law and business, the environment, and more. As a nonpartisan organization, RAND operates independentof political and commercial pressures. We serve the public interest by helping lawmakers reach informed decisionson the nation’s pressing challenges. RAND’s publications do not necessarily refect the opinions of its research clientsand sponsors. R is a registered trademark.CORPORATIONCopyright 2019 RAND CorporationCP-916 /t/CP916 。。。。。。