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麦格理_美股_软件行业_美国软件业2019年市场主题_2019.1.7_103页

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。Macquarie Research Software Themes We Expect to Define 20197 January 2019 2Macro Monsters and Software SweetiesHigh-Level OverviewWe take a broad look into 2019 and offer our predictions and key themes for investingin software this year. We Expect Another Leg Lower, Valuations Better but at Averages, not TroughsHeading into 2019, after a brutal macro correction in Q4 that was met with an early negative pre- announcement by Apple and brought the tech tape down further, we do not believe we are fully donewith the market correction. Our view is based on our 18 years of experience, a unique backdrop of a 10year bull market with a U.S. Federal Reserve Bank set to raise interest rates, uncertainty in China, anda White House where confidence has been lost. We entered 2018 concerned about valuations, and wecontinue to be concerned in our space, in particular on mid-gap growth assets where companies stillhave high relative valuations and may in some instances have less experience with their own businessmodel and macro corrections making navigation more difficult and risky). Valuations are not yet fully reset, and we expect another ~10-15% correction as a result of the detailedanalysis we show inside of 165 software companies 5 and 10 year valuations (we take into account themodern digital world and how the rise in technology driven economies likely means this is the rightanalytical time horizon, though it does not capture the Tech Bubble at the turn of the century).For example, we have seen average software multiples contract substantially since reaching recentpeaks of 6.1x EV/Sales and 39.7x EV/FCF on a rolling forward 24-month basis in August 2018 in ourbroadest measure of the software marketplace, which includes 165 publicly traded vendors selectedfrom the software GICS sector and our coverage universe. Presently this group trades at an average of~4.6x EV/Sales, around +1 STD of the 10-year mean of ~3.7x and ~28.6x EV/FCF, also around +1STD of the 10-year mean of 23.6x, but well above troughs. Please see section 1: Selective Investing:Concentrate in Top Names and Focus on FCF on pg. 7 for a thorough analysis of current softwarevaluations and why we want to focus on FCF today.We are Not Macro Economists, BUT…We are Paying Attention, We Advise SelectiveInvesting – Top Picks Don’t Change vs. 2018 but Concentration DoesIT spending has been quite strong in 2018 and above expectations, but the macro tape took over. As aresult, we have increased our attention on macro within this piece, and our own level of knowledge sothat we can manage our single stock risk better. Our view today is that software investors will be best served with concentrated positions in scaledcompanies addressing leading edge technologies. In our coverage, we advise looking at larger capnames with broader portfolios, improving or solid balance sheets, and stable FCF to back up multiples.Our top picks are therefore Microsoft, which will be a CLEAR winner in several of the themes weaddress herein such as Edge Computing, Quantum Computing; and ServiceNow which has a leadingmodel for helping organization optimize inefficient workflows with its workflow engine, and should be abeneficiary of having solid FCF support and an emerging product to be released this year to aid infinancial closing, a growing areas of difficult in sprawled enterprises. Salesforce should rankbehind the other two, but still makes the list of names we would continue to own and concentratewithin. Salesforce should benefit from its experience in the credit crisis, solid RPO whichcontinues to support CY’19 numbers, and a leading seat at the digital transformation table for allenterprises when discussing how to improve and grow their own businesses.Macquarie Research Software Themes We Expect to Define 20197 January 2019 3Macro Shocks Happen, Does it Lead to a Recession Not Yet, but Likely ConservativeOutlooksWe view the largest risk to the market a global recession, which we do not believe is occurring but withthe negative returns and velocity of the downturn in the stock market, rising interest rates, fears oftrade wars, and slowness in consumers in China, the risks have increased. As a result, we do expectour companies to be more conservative in their initial outlooks than they would have been 6 monthsago. To be clear, our channel checks for FQ4 have just begun, but we have to date collected relativelypositive commentary, but some signs of caution around hiring due to uncertainty. We expect mostsoftware vendors to therefore issue relatively conservative initial outlooks during upcoming FQ4earnings reports. Fourth Industrial Revolution HelpsWhile concerns around numerous macro issues have consumed the market, software fundamentalscontinue to be robust. Indeed, spending on the fourth industrial revolution, or software to automateprocesses, has continued at solid rates, though secular winners and losers persist. Why is thisoccurring One of the reasons that we view software as more defensive is that enterprises across theworld will continue to need a digital transformation pathway that can automate away numerous manualprocesses and people, and optimize business performance. This helps companies continue to produceearnings as slower growth rate environments impact their top line. Further, the advent of digital datahas altered the ways in which a business can be measured and changed in real time. This is theFourth Industrial Revolution. This revolution is about using the advent of digital data from the internet to make smarter and moreoptimized business decisions, to drive revenues, but also to lower OpEx and therefore improveoperating dynamics. This makes it fairly defensive, even in a slower economic environment, thoughspending downticks will occur. Also helping is that cloud software, which is more of an economic modelshift than anything else (a move to rental), has brought a shift away from OpEx and a slower, steadierspending stream on software, with lower upfront costs. We believe this will ultimately also prove moredefensive. Software is at the forefront therefore of the global economy continuing to modernize and optimize andthe software business model has transformed to an outsourced one, where costs are lower forcustomers than internal hosting, and software vendors have monetized OpEx, hardware, networkingand more into their own revenues by providing hyerscale data center facilities running optimized andscalable software. Downticks surely will occur, but software should prove more durable than consumertechnology and other areas of IT.We expect good software spending in 2019, a bit below 2018, but still quite solid. This view has beenfurther backed by our conversations with SIs and partners of the largest vendors in the world weconducted for this report. Indeed, there is clearly still a strong spending environment in software thathas persisted into Q4, and where there are downticks, they are marginal or natural in nature, for themost post, (e.g. law of large numbers) and software stocks have also outperformed other sub sectorsin TMT. In fact, the S&P 500 software sub-sector index was down 7.1% from 6 months ago, whileSemis were down 15.1%, and internet down 16.1%, which we show in Figure 1 below.The reason for defensiveness we address in detail, but the fact of the matter is that we are indeed in afourth industrial revolution. One of the reasons thatwe view software asmore defensive is thatenterprises across theworld will continue toneed a digitaltransformation pathwaythat can automate awaynumerous manualprocesses, and optimizebusiness performance.This helps companiescontinue to produceearnings as slowergrowth rateenvironments impacttheir top line.Macquarie Research Software Themes We Expect to Define 20197 January 2019 4Fig 1 Relative Performance of S&P 500 Software Sub-Sector Index vs. Semiconductors and InternetSource: FactSet, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019。。。。。。