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电子书_全球价值链发展报告2017(英文版)205页

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GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017 MEASURING ANDANALYZING THEIMPACT OF GVCsON ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202–473–1000Internet: worldbank This work is a product of the World Bank Group, the Institute of Developing Economies, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, the Research Center of Global Value Chains headquartered at the University of International Business and Economics, and theWorld Trade Organization and is based on joint research efforts to better understand the ongoing development and evolution of global valuechains and their implications for economic development. The fndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work are those of theauthors and do not necessarily refect the views of the co-publishing partners, their Boards of Executive Directors, or the governments theyrepresent. The co-publishing partners do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinformation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the co-publishing partners concerning the legal status ofany territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the co-publishing partners encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this workmay be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202–522–2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank. ISBN 978-92-870-4125-8 This publication uses U.S. spelling. All mentions of dollars refer to U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated. The term “billion” refers to a thou- sand million. The Research Center of Global Value Chains acknowledges the fnancial support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. iii Foreword by Michael Spence T he global economy is evolving rapidly. It presents acomplex and ever-changing picture. And it is impor- tant. The trends, opportunities, and challenges affectthe lives of every person on the planet. But the forcesat work and the results for trade, the structure of economies andemployment, incomes, and human capital values have been andstill are at best incompletely understood. There is a growing body of research on the impacts of glo- balization and digital technology on individual economies. Andthere has been a huge and productive effort to reconfgure andrefne trade data so as to expose the complex value-added struc- ture of trade in goods and services, led by the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development, the World Bank, theWorld Trade Organization, and a number of other institutions. What has been largely missing is a comprehensive anddetailed picture of the dynamic network structure of the globaleconomy. How economies are linked, specialize, and grow (ornot) is captured in the way global value chains (GVCs) are puttogether. That is what this report is about. It is a huge contribu- tion to our deepening understanding of what the global econ- omy really means and how it is changing. One can think of it as adifferent viewpoint, complementary to the single-economy stud- ies that focus on structural shifts and economic performance atthe national level and that try to capture the impacts of trade andtechnology on growth, incomes, jobs, and more. The insights in this volume are far too numerous to documentin a foreword. I encourage everyone, scholars, policymakers, andleaders in business and civil society organizations as well as curi- ous and at times concerned citizens, to read the studies. If wedo this, it will expand our shared understanding of the forces atwork and facilitate productive discussion of how to adapt andbeneft from the global economy and how to deal with some ofthe distributional challenges that come with it. It is natural tosee globalization through the lens of its effects on the domesticeconomy. But it is eye opening to see it also as a complex evolv- ing network. Here is a small sample of the insights that emerge from thisvaluable collection of studies. Global trade looks very different when detailed quantitativelyin value-added terms rather than as gross fows of exports andimports. Complex value chains (a growing fraction of globaltrade, especially trade in high-value manufacturing and services),with multiple participants and numerous cross-border fows, areliterally invisible when the focus is on gross fows. Bilateral trade balances shift in a major way when viewed invalue-added terms. While economists may deem these to be notso important, they are politically salient and strongly infuencepublic sentiment and hence attitudes toward trade, trade agree- ments, and indeed fairness. Services are extremely important and represent a growingfraction of trade. But to see that in detail, one needs to breakdown manufacturing value chains to expose the very largeservices components that are embedded in them. This pointdeserves emphasis. A careful study of GVCs in sectors classifedas manufacturing (presumably because a physical product isdelivered to the fnal consumer — which may be a frm that is pro- ducing something else) reveals that a large fraction of the valueadded is in services, broadly defned, with the fraction depend- ing on the industry. These services are both upstream and down- stream from the physical production of components and fromassembly. Advanced economies, where the higher valued-addedcomponents tend to be located, thus show up in GVCs in theupstream and downstream components. This gives rise to apicture of GVCs composed of the participants along the valuechain correlated with their stage of development, referred to asa “smile curve” because of its shape. This report does a superbjob of moving the quantitative analysis forward on this front. Barriers to trade in services are declining, slowly, but aremuch higher than those in the movement of goods, narrowlyconstrued. These barriers have multiple sources, including regu- lation, legal institutions, infrastructure, and simple capacity. The patterns of specialization across countries are much morevisible and clearly defned when viewed through the lens of com- plex value-added chains. Through this lens you can detect, withmuch greater precision, where employment is created, what drivesproductivity growth, and what factors are affecting income distri- bution in a wide range of developed and developing countries. As China’s incomes rise and the tradables side of its econ- omy shifts away from labor-intensive process manufacturing andassembly, one would think that these components of complexGVCs would shift to lower income countries, creating growth anddevelopment opportunities and momentum. To some extent,this is happening and will expand. But there are impediments.This volume makes it clear that low wages are not enough.。。。。。。