White paper Cisco public Global network access/Connectivity trends (Fixed/Mobile/Wi-Fi)Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for 71 percent oftotal IP traffic by 2022. By 2022, wired devices will account for 29 percentof IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 71 percent of IPtraffic. In 2017, also, wired devices accounted for less than half of the globalIP traffic, at 48 percent.Globally, mobile data traffic will increase sevenfold between 2017 and2022. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 46 percent between 2017and 2022, reaching 77.5 exabytes per month by 2022. Global mobile data traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as fixed IPtraffic from 2017 to 2022. Fixed IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 24 percentbetween 2017 and 2022, while mobile traffic grows at a CAGR of 46percent. Global mobile data traffic was 9 percent of total IP traffic in 2017and will be 20 percent of total IP traffic by 2022.Global application trends Globally, IP video traffic will be 82 percent of all IP traffic (both businessand consumer) by 2022, up from 75 percent in 2017. Global IP video trafficwill grow four-fold from 2017 to 2022, a CAGR of 29 percent. Internet videotraffic will grow fourfold from 2017 to 2022, a CAGR of 33 percent.Live Internet video will account for 17 percent of Internet video traffic by2022. Live video will grow 15-fold from 2017 to 2022. Internet video surveillance traffic will increase sevenfold between 2017to 2022. Globally, 3 percent of all Internet video traffic will be due to videosurveillance by 2022, up from 2 percent in 2017.Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) traffic will increase 12- fold between 2017 and 2022 globally, a CAGR of 65 percent.Internet video to TV will increase threefold between 2017 to 2022.Internet video to TV will be 27 percent of fixed consumer Internet videotraffic by 2022.Consumer Video-on-Demand (VoD) traffic will nearly double by 2022.The amount of VoD traffic by 2022 will be equivalent to 10 billion DVDspermonth.Internet gaming traffic will grow ninefold from 2017 to 2022, a CAGRof 55 percent. Globally, Internet gaming traffic will be 4 percent of global IPtraffic by 2022, up from 1 percent in 2017.Global network performance Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2022. By 2022, global fixedbroadband speeds will reach 75.4 Mbps, up from 39 Mbps in 2017.2018 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Contents Executive summary Forecast overview Trends Trend 1: Continued shifts in mix ofdevices andconnections Trend (loT) 2: IPv6 adoption enablesInternet of Things (loT) connectivity Trend 3: M2M applicationsacross many industriesaccelerateIoT growth Trend 4: Applications traffic growth Trend 5: “Cord-Cutting” analysis Trend 6: Security analysis Trend 7: Effects of acceleratingspeeds on traffic growth Trend 8: Mobility (Wi-Fi) continuesto gain momentum Trend 9: Traffic-pattern analysis(peak compared to average, CDNuptake and SD-WAN) Appendices Appendix A:Overview of VNI methodology Appendix B:Global IP traffic growth, 2017–2022 Appendix C:Consumer IP traffic, 2017–2022 Appendix D:Consumer internet traffic, 2017–2022 Appendix E:Content delivery network traffic,2017–2022 Appendix F:Consumer-managed IP traffic,2017–2022 Appendix G: Business IP traffic Appendix H: Mobile data traffic For more information White paper Cisco public2018 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Global traffic topology Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry 72 percent of Internet traffic by 2022 up from 56 percent in 2017.Thirty-three percent of service provider network capacity will be within a metro network by 2022, up from 27percent in 2017.Global 5G mobile highlights5G devices and connections will be over 3 percent of global mobile devices and connections by 2022. By 2022, global mobile devices will grow from 8.6 billion in 2017 to 12.3 billion by 2022 - over 422 million of thosewill be 5G capable. Nearly twelve percent of global mobile traffic will be on 5G cellular connectivity by 2022. Globally, the average5G connection will generate 21 GB of traffic per month by 2022. Regional highlightsIP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East andAfrica will grow at a CAGR of 41 percent between 2017 and 2022.Summary of regional growth rates: IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 172.7 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 32 percent. -By 2022, APAC will have 2.6 billion Internet users (62 percent of population), up from 1.7 billion (41 percent ofpopulation) in 2017.-By 2022, APAC will have 13.1 billion networked devices/connections, up from 8.6 billion in 2017.-By 2022, APAC’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 98.8 Mbps, 2.1-fold growth from 2017 (46.2 Mbps)IP traffic in North America will reach 108.4 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 21 percent. -By 2022, NA will have 353 million Internet users (94 percent of population), up from 331 million (92 percent ofpopulation) in 2017.-By 2022, NA will have 5.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 2.9 billion in 2017.-By 2022, NA’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 94.2 Mbps, 2.2-fold growth from 2017 (43.2 Mbps)IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 49.9 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 22 percent. -By 2022, WE will have 380 million Internet users (89 percent of population), up from 358 million (85 percent ofpopulation) in 2017.-By 2022, WE will have 4.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 2.3 billion in 2017.-By 2022, WE’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 76.0 Mbps, 2.0-fold growth from 2017 (37.9 Mbps)IPtraffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 25.3 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 26 percent. -By 2022, CEE will have 364 million Internet users (73 percent of population), up from 332 million (68 percent ofpopulation) in 2017.-By 2022, CEE will have 2.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 1.2 billion in 2017.-By 2022, CEE’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 46.7 Mbps, 1.4-fold growth from 2017 (32.8 Mbps) White paper Cisco public2018 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 20.9 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 41 percent. -By 2022, MEA will have 549 million Internet users (32 percent of population), up from 388 million (23 percent ofpopulation) in 2017.-By 2022, MEA will have 2.5 billion networked devices/connections, up from 1.7 billion in 2017.-By 2022, MEA’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 20.2 Mbps, 2.0-fold to 2.6-fold growth from 2017(7.8 Mbps)IP traffic in Latin America will reach 18.8 EB per month by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 21 percent. -By 2022, LATAM will have 465 million Internet users (69 percent of population), up from 368 million (57 percentof population) in 2017.-By 2022, LATAM will have 2.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 1.4 billion in 2017.-By 2022, LATAM’s average fixed broadband speed will reach 28.1 Mbps, 2.4-fold growth from 2017 (11.7 Mbps). Forecast overview The current Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) forecast projects global IP traffic to nearly triple from 2017 to 2022.The appendix offers a detailed summary. Overall IP traffic is expected to grow to 396 EB per month by 2022, up from 122 EB per month in 2017, a CAGRof 26 percent (Figure 1). This growth represents a slight increase in expectations over last year’s forecast, whichprojected a CAGR of 24 percent from 2016 to 2021, driven by an increase in the growing share of mobile traffic as apercentage of the total IP traffic.Also, of note in the recent forecast is the growing number of countries whose fixed traffic growth rivals that of theirmobile traffic growth. United States is the outlier, with a fixed growth of 26 percent in 2017 and a mobile growth of23percent over the same time period. Japan, Korea, Canada, Germany and Sweden, all have fixed growth that is onlyslightly lower than their mobile growth. The majority of countries still have significantly higher growth rates for mobilethan for fixed. Figure 1. Cisco VNI forecasts 396 EB per month of IP traffic by 2022 26% CAGR 2017–2022 122 156 201 254 319 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 201720182019202020212022 Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2017–2022 396 For more details about Cisco’s forecasting methodology, refer to the appendix. 。。。。。。